Chickpea markets have witnessed increased seed trade this week as growers solidify their plans for the upcoming season. It is expected that due to crop rotation, acreage will remain strong for the 2024/25 crop year. While quality was not a major worry this year, sizing remains to be the major concern. Buyers are actively seeking large-sized chickpea parcels and are willing to pay well above current bids to secure them. Old crop bids for #2 large kabuli chickpeas with up to 20% 7mm currently sit in the range of $0.54 to $0.55 per pound FOB farm; discounts to apply for chickpeas over 20% 7mm. Growers with product that has been stored for a few years are encouraged to take new samples and perform sizing assessments to determine market value. Feed/sample values still hover around $0.36 per pound FOB farm. If you plan to sow chickpeas this coming season and require seed, it’s advisable to start your search now. Feel free to reach out to us to discuss your needs.
Flax prices remain relatively stable, though buyer interest and market activity do vary. It is still possible to secure prices at around $17.00 per bushel for FOB farm, but some buyers are quoting as low as $14.00 per bushel. This variation may be attributed to Chinese demand and their current warehouse supply levels. Currently, there is no immediate concern about market availability, and flax prices could potentially trend lower before improving. Keep an eye on Kazakhstan’s reports regarding flax acres and yields, as a delayed harvest due to heavy rains has created uncertainty about quality. While carryover stocks may ease the supply situation, it’s expected that there will be less inventory later in 2024. At present, the market remains stable, and any significant price increases in the near term are not anticipated.
The barley market continues to follow a familiar pattern over the last few weeks. While it may sound like a broken record, it’s important to note that trend is driven by active market dynamics rather than stagnation. Feed barley is still being quoted at approximately $6.00 per bushel FOB farm in most regions, and there is still an opportunity for relatively quick shipment. As corn continues to make its appearance in the feedlot scene, we don’t expect a significant price surge, but locking in prices today remains a good option to secure returns on the farm. It’s more likely that prices in the prairies will stabilize rather than experience a sudden spike. Maltsters are still exploring options for high-quality malt, but obtaining firm purchase quotes may be challenging. To secure the best deal, it’s advisable to assess quality, determine specifications, and initiate the marketing process accordingly.
Recently, the canola market has been impacted by cheap product coming out of Eastern Europe, causing a noticeable stumble in canola prices. Analysts are now pondering just how much lower futures will go before they find a bottom. To compound matters, soybean values also suffered a setback this week, as beans continue to lose ground. Witnessing a $100 per metric ton drop in November futures within a single month is undeniably disconcerting, no matter how you look at it. Evidently, most, if not all, sellers have securely closed and double-locked their bin doors, patiently awaiting more favourable market conditions. We strongly recommend keeping a vigilant watch on storage as we’ve already encountered a few issues with heating this year. Issues are not primarily from the canola, but mainly due to weeds or chaff, which can lead to problems. Fortunately, cooler weather on the horizon should help alleviate these concerns, but it’s vital to remain proactive in managing storage to prevent any potential issues. Spot prices have dipped into the $14 range in many instances, and a few buyers offering wider basis levels are even showing values as low as $13 per bushel.
Soybeans started the morning with a slight dip, influenced by flat external markets and the ongoing U.S. harvest pressure. However, the market received a boost due to less-than-ideal weather conditions forecasted for the U.S. soybean harvest and the announcement of a 4.6-million-bushel soybean sale to China. Bids are currently ranging from $15.25 to $15.75 per bushel, depending on the farm location. Dry bean bids are expected to gain support later in the season from Mexican demand and reduced production, although they are currently burdened by carryover supplies from the previous season. Canadian faba bean volumes are projected to decrease compared to the previous year. Feed-quality fabas continue to find support from the pet food industry’s demand. Local bids for export-quality #2 faba beans fall within the range of $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel, depending on the farm’s location, while feed-quality values range from $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel, also contingent on the farm’s location.
This week’s mustard prices have remained unchanged. The trend remains consistent, with buyers content to pull production contract tonnage for their plants. Interestingly, some buyers are abstaining from bidding on specific types of spot mustard. While there has been a surge in inquiries regarding new crop mustard pricing, there are currently no new crop programs available. Perhaps we will see more activity on this front in November. Spot prices also appear to be shifting towards deferred shipping with quoted as December to January not uncommon. It may be worthwhile to discuss quicker movement options with your merchant at slightly reduced prices. Yellow mustard bids continue to hold steady in the mid-$0.80 cent per pound range, while brown mustard bids are currently quoted in the low to mid $0.70 range. Oriental mustard prices remain lower, hovering in the high $0.60’s per pound range, and seem to be facing challenges in terms of market demand. Mustard seed sales have begun, and various options are available, including treated and untreated seed with free delivery to the farm for the upcoming year.
In the wheat market, prices continue to decline, with growers eagerly awaiting a rebound. Various issues, such as poor crop conditions in China and Argentina, have created opportunities for Canada, France, and the US to benefit from the Chinese supply gap. Reports suggest China will be short 30-40MMT and they aim to cover 13MMT for high quality/human consumption markets. However, international wheat prices are currently at three-year lows, which might explain the lack of upward price movement. The International Grains Council (IGC) anticipates that world wheat supply will reach approximately 785MMT, which is roughly 18MMT below the previous year. Despite this, prices remain stagnant. Perhaps, as time progresses, producers will observe more market reflective values. Currently, pricing for #1 red spring wheat with 13.5% protein sits around $9.20 per bushel, delivered in central Saskatchewan. Feed values show little change, with prices ranging from $8.00 to $8.50 per bushel picked up on the farm.
Oats have remained stable this week, with limited changes. According to the Canadian Outlook for Principal Crops, estimated oat production for 2023-24 is at 2.44MMT, a 53% decrease from the previous year due to reduced acres and yield potential. Carry-out stocks for 2023-24 are expected to be 0.35MMT, a significant decrease year over year. Locally, oats destined for the feed market are trading at $4.25 per bushel FOB in Saskatchewan. Milling bids vary by location and timeframe, with posted bids of $5.25 per bushel for January-March shipping and $5.50 per bushel for April-August shipping. In Manitoba, milling bids range from $5.50 to $5.75 per bushel, depending on location and timeframe. Organic oats also present opportunities, with prices ranging from $9.00 to $9.50 per bushel delivered in Saskatchewan. With some milling needs being covered in the short term, it’s advisable to consult with your merchant regarding shipping options.
Canaryseed pricing has seen a slight decline this week, with values ranging from $0.43 to $0.44 per pound, offered as FOB farm and delivered in Saskatchewan. The Canadian Outlook for Principal Crops estimates 2023-24 production at 124,000MT, with lower exports expected due to supply constraints. Internationally, Argentina’s canaryseed crop is facing drought concerns, affecting their export pace. With limited export demand and reports of cheaper canaryseed substitutes, the canaryseed market remains quiet, with neither sellers nor buyers making significant moves.
Peas markets continue to maintain stable pricing, although trading activity has been subdued. Yellow peas have reached as high as $11.00/bu FOB farm this week, while green peas have traded as high as $17.00/bu FOB farm, although most trades are still seen at $10.50 at $16.50 respectively. Firm targets are encouraged to try and capture the higher end values. Maple peas have seen less activity but continue to command prices in the range of $25 to $26/bu, depending on the movement timeline. Overseas buying has slowed for the time being, with expectations of increased sales in December and January. Outside influences on the yellow pea market include increased production in Russia, Ukraine, and the USA, as well as reports of Russia selling peas at a US$40/MT discount. The yellow pea market is likely to remain sluggish unless there are changes in Russian supply or increased demand from China. Green and maple peas should remain stable, possibly strengthening, as supply will remain limited until the next harvest.
The lentil market has seen minimal changes compared to last week. Large greens have traded as high as 65 cents per pound this week, small greens at 61 cents, French greens at 64 cents, and reds as high as 37 cents with extended delivery timelines. The green lentil market is currently drawing the most interest from buyers, while the red lentil market appears to be in a holding pattern. Red lentils may take until the new year before seeing any significant price recovery, as market participants await information on Australian yields and their local selling prices. On the other hand, the green lentil market is active, with buyers eager to secure product before it becomes scarce. Buyers have started pricing some new crop small greens and French greens but are holding off on other lentil varieties for the time being.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.