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Rayglen Market Comments – October 3, 2018

The pea market has not seen much change over the last couple of weeks. As mentioned, India has extended its import restriction on peas until the end of the year, but this didn’t seem to effect pricing all that much. Yellow peas are hitting $6.00/bu FOB in most areas with the option for $6.50 FOB based on the dry matter protein grading 24% +. Green peas are still trading at $8.50 delivered, which is resulting in $8 FOB in most areas. Maple are seeing bids at $10.50/bu picked up, while Dunn peas trade at $7/bu. Although this marketing year for peas has been quiet, especially for yellows, there is still next year to plan for. We will have a supply of green pea seed for those that are looking to change into something new.

In Saskatchewan, an estimated 68% of the crop is harvested as of September 24. Alberta on the other hand, is estimated to be 33% complete as of September 25, down considerably compared to last year when 62% of the crop was off at that same time. That being said, there is bound to be an abundance of feed available and barley is seeing the pressure. Feed spec barley is now $4.00 – $4.25/bu FOB the farm in most areas. The difference is where the freight advantages are (usually the further west you go). As for the malt market, please call your merchant for the most up to date pricing. We do have small programs on the table around the $5/bu mark FOB farm.

Flax markets are holding steady. The StatsCan model came up slightly from August, but supplies will be the lowest since 2012/2013. As of September 24, flax harvest was only 28% complete. If the weather conditions don’t improve, this could cause Canadian supplies to tighten up further. Market prices will likely remain positive for flax even with the availability of the Black Sea region, China and possibly the US crop. The Kazakh flax crop is also seeing some weather issues and analysts report that the entire crop is projected to be 570-580,000 tonnes. Only about 380,000 tonnes are expected to get harvested between now and November, the rest will stay in the fields over the winter until after the snow melts. We are still seeing up to $13.00/bu FOB on milling quality flax for movement after the new year, while yellow flax bids are getting some traction at $13.50/bu picked up in select areas. If you need to move some product before the new year, we have opportunities. While the outlook for flax prices indicate they will edge higher, harvest progress will determine how much upside potential there is. The lull in exports is keeping the market fairly flat for now.

Canary seed markets remain firm this week as buyers still indicate 21-22c/lb FOB farm in most locations. With slow harvest progress, we suspect there is still a good amount of canary to be taken off. This paired with a decrease in acres, is likely providing the most support. For those close enough, we do have a few buyers bidding 23c delivered. Call with bushel amount and location to see if a delivered plant bid is the right option for you; And as always, when markets are firm, and buyers are searching for product, target offers are a great way to try and squeeze that little bit extra out – as long as they are reasonable of course!

Mustard pricing this week is relatively the same as last week, although, we are starting to notice buyers are not excited about Cutlass oriental mustard, with Vulcan and Forge varieties being more sought after. If you are growing oriental mustard again next year and would like to switch up your seed, we do have Vulcan and a limited amount of Forge available. If you are interested in growing brown or yellow variety, we have those options as well. Talk with your merchant on pricing and other details if you are interested. Current market values for mustard are: Oriental, Cutlass- 25c/lb FOB farm, Vulcan and Forge varieties – 27c/lb FOB farm. Yellow mustard, all varieties – 34c/lb, and brown all varieties – 31c/lb FOB farm. All bids are basis #1 quality. Also make sure you are sending contracted samples for grading!

Soybeans have seen a rally the last couple of days with prices going up 8-9 cents. This rally seems to be coming from optimism in global trade that the U.S. and China will get a deal hammered out shortly now that the Canada, U.S. and Mexico trade agreement is in place. Global markets also feel that they may need to top inventories before the Brazil’s new crop is available to the trade. Soybeans will likely continue to be unstable as the market seems to be based on a lot of what ifs at this time. Local prices seem to be around the $10.50/bu mark depending on your location in the province. In the Faba bean market, buyers seem to be have a big interest in buying snowbirds, other varieties aren’t seeing as much interest at this point, but are still in demand.  Buyers this year really want to see samples before bidding on product so get those in ASAP and we will show the buyers. Price seems to range from$7.75-$9.25/bu depending on quality, size and variety.

The lentil market remains void of good news. Bids have softened some this week as a bit of product hit the market and covered some needs overseas. Tariffs and bans on pulses to India closes, or at least heavily restricts, the world’s biggest pulse market for the time being, so the market sluggishness looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Current bids are around 17 cents for #2 large greens picked up in the yard. On #1 quality small greens bids have been floating around 17 cents delivered to plant in most cases. If you are looking for a price on #2 red lentils we still have some bids at 15 cents delivered to plant, but we can provide some FOB farm pricing as well. For anyone who ended up with low grade lentils, we do have a couple buyers looking for some product right now.

Oat prices remain steady as expectations of a slightly smaller crop than usual has given the market a bit of strength. We are still seeing possibilities of as high as $3/bu picked up on the farm in areas of south east Saskatchewan for good quality milling oats. If you aren’t in the south east be sure to give us a call for a bid on your farm. On the feed side of the market, bids are showing up at $2.40-$2.50/bu picked up in the yard depending on your location. This bid is based on higher quality, heavy and dry feed oats. As always, give your merchant a call to discuss bids or to put out a target price to get your oats moving.

Not much good news coming out of the feed wheat market as undesirable weather has continued across much of the province, affecting many acres of wheat still out in the field. Expectations that these unharvested acres are headed for the feed market go up everyday. Bids for heavy and dry feed wheat are down to $5-$5.25/bu FOB farm depending on location, with prices being best on the west half of Saskatchewan. Bids for #1 hard red spring wheat with 13.5% protein continue to be at $7/bu del plant with slight premiums for a later movement period as well as higher protein levels.

Canola futures have staged a slow climb out of the basement ever since September 18, which continued in today’s trade. That being said, technically canola has entered overbought territory and may correct slightly. However, delayed harvest progress continues to support the canola market. The four-lettered word on many people’s minds is “SNOW” and how it is or remains a distinct possibility for some regions. Our dollar has weakened recently but had shown strength following news of a new USMCA trade deal between Canada, U.S. and Mexico. Local bids do range based on freight location, but $10.50/bu picked up is generally available.

Chickpea markets continue to creep along this week with steady sellers and stagnant bids. News of India declaring a continued restriction on all pulse and legume crops through to 2019 as well as, indicating bigger crops for the coming Rabi season, it feels like our new reality is settling in. With bids in local Indian markets often below the MSP it has not discouraged the seeding intentions. Short of a wide spread weather issue resulting in a wreck for the Indian market there is little expectation of any change to the current situation for the next 12 months. November is the month to watch and wait for real information on crop sown averages from India and with that there will be a clear indicator of the direction of the Canadian market. Current bids for Orion/Leader chickpeas between 21-22c/lb FOB with smaller sizes coming in 2-3c/lb less. Desi chickpeas seem to be a hot topic with buyers calling in looking for supply and growers looking for seed. Get germ and disease testing done so we can find homes for it or let us help you get the most out of the market for your production. Indicated price for Desis #2 or better at 28c/lb FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.