StatsCan reduced its Canadian canola production forecast to just shy of 19.1 MMT. A bounce back from last year, but by no means a bin buster with yields falling short of trend line yields. Couple that with lower carry in supplies from last year, and a forecasted recovery in global veg oil markets, Canadian supplies are likely to remain snug. Locally, harvest basis values have been attractive and perhaps indicative of longer-term tighter supplies. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.35-$17.75/bu FOB farm.
After a big run up following the USDA report and soybean yields coming in below expectations, it has been countered by the potential of a large Brazilian soybean crop. The futures market now sits roughly with a net 50¢/bu up from Monday’s open after today’s losses. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm. The market is expecting lower new crop dry bean supplies both north and south of the border due to lower planted acres. Typical harvest delivery pressure is affecting local bids, but tighter supplies are anticipated to prop up that market in the longer term. Canadian faba crop volume and grading pattern will reveal itself over the coming months. At this point, lower volume and quality are expected due to a sharp drop in planted acres coupled with a later planted crop. Aussie faba production is expected to drop from last year’s levels, but still sit above the 10-year production average. Export faba bids are in the range of $11.00-$11.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $9.50-10.00/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Barley continues to catch strong values that should be considered in marketing plans this week. Current feed barley pricing shows quite the range pending shipping period, but many trades are taking place between $7.00 – $7.50/bu FOB farm. These types of values have been popular amongst growers and although delivery windows are pushed out a bit, the majority seems to be moving before the new year. For growers needing bin space and/or cashflow within a couple months, or even a couple weeks, opportunities are available, albeit values are discounted. We cannot stress enough that these types of bids should be strongly considered. If you take the 5 and maybe even 10-year average, today’s values are well above and are nothing to shy at. We are starting to see some traction on the malt side of things as well, so if you have had your product tested and are looking to contract, or need it sent away for specs, please call. To date, it is hard to determine what is going to be out there for supply into the malt chain, however, it seems we may end up with some better quality malt than initially anticipated. Firm offers and targets remain a great way to grab buyer attention, so if you are seeking anything over quoted values, let us know.
Oat markets are not necessarily at a stand still, rather, better pictured as a turtle this week. We continue to hear some phenomenal yields being pulled off and buyers are hearing the same thing. Although quick shipment is getting tough to come by, there may still be some opportunities available with prices wavering around $4.00/bu delivered for October. Add another $0.25 for Nov – Dec and another $0.25 well into the new year, quoted as April forward. Recently added interest in feed oats puts values right around the same prices as milling oats if they are heavy and dry. It is not uncommon to see oat purchases taper off around harvest time as buyers wait to see what available supply will look like and make their own plans. Sitting somewhat on the outside and looking in, at this point, it’s likely a fair assumption that these values are not going to be “running up the mill” anytime soon based on yield reports. If you can capture some of this earlier pricing, we suggest considering getting a certain percent sold, clear up some bin space, and get some cashflow back onto the farm.
Reports of reduced mustard yields roll in mainly attributed to intense late season heat and grasshopper pressure weighing on crops. That said, it is expected that ending stocks will still bounce back to some extent based on quite a large increase in acres. Right now, prices remain historically high for all grades of mustard, and growers should be looking at sales closely. Yellow is priced around $1.10/lb, brown sits around $0.96/lb and oriental is quoted at $1.00/lb, all picked up on farm based on a #1 grade. We still have some quick shipping options available on all types and grades of mustard, but buyers need to see samples, so we urge growers to get them submitted ASAP. Lower grade mustard is also priced favorably and worth looking at if you still have off grade in the bin and/or this year’s quality isn’t spectacular. This market could pull back a little once more farmer selling starts happening, even with the yields being reduced.
News in the Canadian flax market this week was that Sask Ag lowered its provincial yield by a bushel per acre, dropping to an estimated 23bpa average. This decrease may not affect price a whole lot as StatsCan’s estimated the ending stocks at 85,000MT, which was higher than first thought basis record pricing highs last year. We will have to wait and see if this gets adjusted once final numbers are in for the year. The larger carry out number is not the only problem. Russian and Kazakh flax is shipping cheaper into China, while the US market has an increase in acres for the 2022 crop year, presumably dropping some need for Canadian product. At this point in time, our two largest trading partners can find cheaper product elsewhere keeping a lid on Canadian values. However, bids are still in the $21-$23/bushel range this week and remain a historically high price for flax. If you’re thinking of selling, this may be a good time to strike as early market information suggests a bearish tone for the marketing year ahead.
Chickpea markets are sideways for another week with price indications around 48-49 cents/lb FOB farm. With stronger global markets and lack of Canadian selling due to lower-than-average yields, prices are likely to stay firm over the next while. Indian Kabuli prices have softened, however, Turkish prices remain firm despite a fresh harvest. This could indicate solid markets for Kabuli’s going forward. With mixed yield reports in Saskatchewan, there could be an adjustment on the next StatsCan report. This would bring supplies considerably down from last year further adding to a bullish view. Reports of the Mexican Kabuli crop also suggests supplies could be limited. All in all, chickpea prices are likely to be supported as we head into the new year.
The pea market has been interesting this week as a bit of a shift back to historical prices balance came about. For the first time in a while, we are seeing green pea prices above yellow pea prices. Yellow peas have been at a premium with the advance of the protein market since last fall, and this week, finally, greens have regained a bit of the premium they usually carry. Unfortunately, the premium doesn’t really develop from a strength in green pea price, but rather a weakness or indifference to yellows as buyer bids have quieted down and markets are cold. Current pea bids are at $11 to $11.50/bu on yellows, while greens peas can capture bids closer to $12/bu picked up on farm. If you have greens with a higher bleach count, we have buyers with interest around $10/bu depending on location. If you are a maple pea grower there is buyer interest at $13/bu or better picked up on farm pending variety and location. Maple buyers are specific on which varieties they’re after, so please have this information ready!
Lentil estimates from Sask Ag show a significantly lower yield versus StatsCan’s July report with a difference of roughly 330lb/acre. StatsCan is due to release an updated vegetation image from Aug sometime today. Either way, our lentil crop lb/acre will be lower than what was anticipated. Bids seem to be relatively supporting the market as producers haven’t over sold pushing prices down. Red lentil bids continue to receive the least amount of attraction due to the majority of farm stock red in nature with competition coming from Aussie crop and Indian rabi crop. Bids sit around 30-31 cents/lb picked up on the farm for Sept-Oct movement. Now things get a bit more interesting when dealing with green lentils. US harvest yield is better than last year due to increased acres, but still below the statistical 5-year average lending support to the green market. Small green lentils continue to hold at 40-41c/lb picked up on the farm with large greens priced around 43-44c/lb picked up; targets slightly higher may be looked at on a case-by-case basis. On a side note, we have seen buyer interest in French green lentils around 72-75c/lb picked up on farm, so if you are looking to move some, give Rayglen a call.
Canaryseed prices remain solid this week, currently sitting around the $0.39-$0.40/lb mark for relatively quick shipping. Growers looking to push that value higher may be able to attain $0.41/lb FOB farm on firm target for later movement in the November/December timeframe. Yield reports from the west side of the province are very mixed and seem under average at this point. Dry areas still under drought pressure have been the culprit for below average yields on a whole as those pockets continue to suffer from terrible yields. Now we will start to see some yield reports come in from the east side of the province as they start into canary. This, we suspect, will help pick up the yield average as some of those crop looks fairly big. Give us a call about that offer if you are looking to move some product.
Wheat markets are still speculating on possible quality issues as harvest starts to wrap in some areas. It’s still a bit too soon to tell how widespread any actual damage might be, but the buzz is about fusarium and ergot. Globally, there are rumors that Russia will have logistical challenges with not being able to supply railcars for movement, and this could have an effect on China’s purchasing power out of North America. Despite talk of tight supply, prices maintain for another week. Bids range from $11.00/bu delivered into central SK this week, while feed wheat shows bids around $8.50-$9/bu depending on area and freight costs. Durum markets still have a low tone for the 4th quarter, but if quality issues come to fruition, we could see some value on milling quality in 2023.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.