This week in the lentil market, prices have remained relatively stable, but there is a noticeable softening on the demand side. The decline in demand started on Monday and has continued throughout the week. It’s no secret that the ongoing political dispute between Canada and India could have a significant impact on the future of the lentil market. While buyers are still making purchases, there is an overall sense of unease and uncertainty about the market’s direction. Red lentils have seen a slight decrease compared to last week, currently hovering around $0.39 per pound FOB farm. However, even at this level, the bids don’t appear to be very deep. Large green lentils are priced around $0.62 per pound FOB farm, while small greens are at approximately $0.60 per pound FOB farm. It’s challenging to predict the full extent of the Canada-India dispute’s impact on the market, but all signs point toward an impending price drop across all lentil varieties. The million-dollar question remains whether this drop will be a few cents or something more substantial. If you’ve been considering selling at these prices, it’s advisable not to delay much longer, as demand continues to decrease.
Oat values have been quietly inching up since late summer, once again ranging from $4.50 to $5 per bushel on the farm in many areas for delivery into the winter. The longer you’re willing to store oats, the better the price gets, extending into the summer of 2024. While it’s not a substantial premium for extended storage, an additional 25 cents per bushel or so can be factored in. Feed bids for oats remain at around $4 per bushel in most areas, with a slight premium in regions with a freight advantage. Oat movement is being pushed towards Christmas with most buyers, but quicker shipping opportunities may be available. Sellers and buyers both seem content to monitor the situation, adopting a wait-and-see approach. Buyers haven’t yet filled all their needs, but they have purchased enough to feel comfortable for the time being. It’s a market worth watching but not one that requires an immediate decision.
There are mixed reviews when it comes to canaryseed information being reported by StatsCan. They are reporting a 22% reduction in production compared to last year, down to 124,000 metric tons (MT). However, when reviewing insured acres, it appears that production estimates are likely inaccurate, as acres increased by 2% compared to StatsCan’s reported 12% drop. While these numbers can fluctuate, it raises questions about accuracy. Sound quality canaryseed bids remain at $0.46 per pound FOB farm for the fourth quarter, and buyers are considering offers. If there is indeed a smaller crop than last year, this bid may gain strength, but with only 50% of the crop harvested in Saskatchewan so far, there is still time to work out the uncertainties.
Flax pricing remains relatively steady this week, with bids sitting around $17.00 per bushel picked up. While European exports have dipped slightly, there has been an increase in product moving to the US and China. The question lies in China’s demand, as Chinese flax inventories are still substantial, potentially limiting imports. Prices could remain stable, given the smaller North American flax crop compared to the previous year, although some carry-over remains. There’s also speculation that Russian and Kazakhstan supplies will decrease in the upcoming year. Opportunities have arisen to move some yellow flax, so it’s advisable to contact our office for up-to-date pricing.
Barley prices appear to be slightly lower compared to last week. Some buyers have left their prices unchanged, while others have reduced their bids by approximately $7.00 per metric ton. The influx of corn into feedlot alley continues to add pressure to feed grain pricing and impacting current barley bids, which range from $5.50 to $6.00 per bushel, depending on location and shipping timeframe. While higher value opportunities with quick shipping are scarce, they have emerged in certain areas, with one buyer offering $5.75 per bushel FOB for October delivery in the Regina area. Several buyers express malt interest, but they require samples for grading. To facilitate this, we encourage growers to send samples to our office so that we can share them with interested buyers.
Pea markets have been active recently, with strong bids continuing into this week. Green pea pricing at $17.00 FOB in most areas has generated significant interest, with growers securing contracts on #2 quality peas. Buyers have also been very competitive with high bleach peas, offering bids as high as $15.00 per bushel for those with a maximum 15% bleach level. Maples have maintained their value, following a rapid increase, still trading around $25 per bushel this week. Yellow peas are comparatively slower, hovering at around $10.50 per bushel FOB in many areas. However, with $11.25 per bushel delivered bids available for yellow peas, those willing to offer $11.00 FOB have garnered buyer interest in suitable locations. In China, low inventories and a historically strong fall export program could potentially boost yellow pea prices, but the availability of cheaper Russian peas has made Chinese buyers cautious about purchasing Canadian products. Therefore, the upside for yellow peas appears limited for the time being.
This week, the chickpea market remains stable. We are keeping a close eye on the federal government’s ongoing dispute with the Indian government, but so far, it has not impacted prices. Old crop #2 large kabuli chickpeas are currently trading at approximately $0.55 per pound, FOB farm, for shipments between September and November. Additionally, there is interest in desi chickpeas at around $0.37 per pound mark. In USD terms, this equates to roughly $0.40 per pound and $0.365 per pound, FOB farm respectively, for the same shipment window. Please let us know your sizing as we are seeing an abundance of 7mm chickpeas due to this year’s growing conditions. Please feel free to send us your samples for a sizing assessment prior to marketing.
The mustard market remains a hot topic of discussion, but there is limited activity on both the buying and selling fronts due to an ongoing standoff. Buyers are primarily focused on shipping outstanding contracts while trying to gauge the volume of mustard production before making any significant moves, holding out hope of prices trending downward. Meanwhile, growers are holding out for improved buyer bids. According to StatsCan’s recent report, crop production stands at 12.1 bushels per acre, a slight increase from the previous year, with additional planted acres. This should support favourable export prospects for 2023/24, though not significantly influencing market dynamics. Current buyer bids for yellow mustard are in the mid to high 80s, while brown mustard hovers around 80, and oriental mustard sits in the mid-70s.
Wheat markets are experiencing more downward movement than upward. The USDA reports that wheat harvest is 93% complete, aligning with the five-year average. Saskatchewan’s harvest progress, as of the week ending September 11, was at 75%, but it is likely closer to 85% complete now. Those considering seeding winter wheat still have a few days before the September 30 crop insurance seeding deadline. Feed wheat prices range from $8.00 to $8.50 per bushel on-farm, with the No. 2 wheat market not significantly higher. Durum wheat continues to be priced around $14.00 delivered. Rye markets are currently quiet for short-term transactions, with prices ranging from $7.00 to $8.00/bu. Overall, the wheat markets are subdued, with both farmers and buyers adopting a patient approach.
The soybean market remains sensitive to factors affecting production, particularly after the USDA reduced soybean production expectations. Recent showers across the Heartland have the potential to slow down harvest progress, boosting futures. Local soybean bids range from $16.25 to $16.75 per bushel FOB, depending on the farm location. Dry bean bids are expected to gain late-season support from Mexican demand and lower production, although they are currently hindered by old crop carryover supplies. Canadian faba bean volumes are projected to decrease year-over-year. Feed quality faba beans continue to find support by pet food values, sitting near $10.00 to $10.50 per bushel, location dependent. Local bids for export quality #2 faba beans range from $13.50 to $14.00 per bushel on farm.
Canola futures have followed a typical seasonal trend, declining due to increased producer deliveries. Anticipated production levels are expected to fall below last year’s figures, and overseas demand from the EU and China has diminished. Ukrainian rapeseed and sunflower seed production is projected to increase by 17% compared to last year. Despite the production drop, the canola stocks-to-use balance sheet is loosening up. Local canola bids range from $15.85 to $16.11 per bushel FOB farm, contingent on farm location.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.