Flax demand from China, the EU and US look to remain strong and with low Canadian carry-over, prices have crept up slightly this week. Trades are being done upwards of $15.00/bu picked up in the yard for milling quality brown flax, while yellow flax prices perk up to around $16.00/bu FOB. Favorable weather over the last week has allowed flax harvest to advance nicely, so we expect more product coming to the table shortly. The Black Sea region exports have fallen off due to lower supplies, meaning the market will be looking for fresh supply in other areas. Bids are reflecting the market demand, however, Canadian supplies will not be able to meet all the demand, so values are likely to remain strong with some possible upside.
The oat harvest is underway with just over 15% in the bins as of the middle of this month. Early indications suggest that the volume is still set to outpace last year by a bit but there is still the question mark on quality. The early stuff that’s off looks to be nice but the later crop that was subject to the heat with no rain could prove to be interesting. Once more numbers are gathered, we’ll see how things are really shaking out. Right now, milling quality prices are hovering around that $2.55 – $2.80/bu FOB farm with movement in the new year. If you happen to be near the SE Sask/Man boarder and product is off, call your Rayglen merchant as you may be scratching $3.00/bu FOB for quicker movement. On the feed side, prices are ranging in that $2.50 – $2.75/bu FOB farm.
The feed barley market has really been taking off this last week, but unfortunately the same cannot be said in malt barley markets. Currently we have very few bidders and/or options on malt barley contracts and suggest targets as a possible way to catch someone’s attention. Rumors suggest $5.00/bu delivered to plant is attainable on Copeland and Metcalfe varieties, but so far, we’ve been unable to corroborate them. The feed barley market has a tight trading range this past week with most bids sitting between $4.00-$4.50/bu picked up pending location. A decent carry in value is seen for deferred Jan-Mar 2021 shipment for those who can hold product into the new year. Bids increase as FOB locations move Southwest, with the highest values seen in Southern AB close to feedlot alley.
Bids have firmed up in the pea market this week since StatsCan came out with lower production estimates. Yellow peas have been trading at $7.00/bu picked up, green peas are priced at $8.90 – 9.00/bu delivered and maple peas are seeing bids at $8.00-$8.25/bu picked up. China’s continued steady buying is holding the yellow pea market up as well and helps contribute to these stronger markets. If the new StatsCan estimates are correct about production, then our yellow pea supplies will end up being a lot tighter than expected which could bring a positive affect to pricing this marketing year. As we know, green pea acres were up this year, but with lower production estimates our supplies should sit at more comfortable levels. That being said, any price increase will likely be more subdued when compared to yellow peas.
With chickpea harvest reportedly 69% complete, StatCan has once again adjusted their yields upwards to 30bu/acre. This translates to production on a whole being 5% below last year, again, rendering a large carry for 2020/2021. Despite that, there is a bit of a firmer tone as reports of smaller caliber chickpeas are being harvested; quality seeming to be decent thus far. The overseas market is putting some weight into the results of the Argentinian harvest, but this will not be reported till November. It feels like there are several different ways this market can move right now but from a grower’s perspective it needs to improve before the bins open again. Bids for a #2 Kabuli sit around $0.27-0.28/lb FOB farm and sample grade remain at $0.12/lb FOB on average.
Wheat prices have smartened up a bit here in recent weeks, with feed bids back touching $5 to $5.50/bu in most areas. Prices depend greatly on the area your farm is located and whether you want product unloaded now or in the winter (Jan-March); the latter of the two is bringing a solid carry. How solid? Well, usually the carry from fall into winter is a few bucks a tonne, but a few buyers have said they are showing up to $10/MT right now, which is pretty solid. Milling wheat prices moved up to $6.50 delivered in range on a #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein. If you have a target in mind on your wheat talk to your preferred merchant about what you are looking for and we can see what works. We have a few options on low protein #1 wheat as well at values in between feed and milling.
Canola futures have dropped off this week after seeing a big jump upwards the previous two. This appears to be coming from large sales in soybeans early in the week due to concerns of a second COVID wave putting the global economy in trouble again. That being said, prices are still strong at a time of year when they usually push yearly lows. November futures at time of writing are at $519.60/MT, down from $530/MT at the same time last week. The January futures do hold a bit of carry in them at $527/MT today, down from $536 at the same time last week.
The canary seed market continues to ride a bit of a hot hand and there is not much right now that will get in the way and bring this market down. Product has been trading between $0.30 – $0.31/lb picked up on the farm with movement pushed out till January. The feedback that we’ve been receiving is that overall product is looking good and bushels seem to be on par with a decent crop. That being said, canaryseed is a notoriously under reported and we, as well as analysts, can only make their best guess as to what’s out there. With tight carry and a decent crop, we should see this market supported in the near term.
As might be expected, soybean futures have pulled back based on harvest pressure and farmer sales to elevators and crushers. From a demand perspective, this dip in futures has spurred on further opportunistic purchases from international buyers. Local bids are in the range of $10.75-$11.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean harvest is in its early stages and average yields are being reported. Many dry bean prices are currently similar to what was available prior to planting; thus, the market remains well supported. New crop faba bean bids are in the range of $7.00-$7.50/bu picked up on farm for zero-tannin varieties. Tannin varieties may command a premium with early indication of $9/bu FOB farm for select tannin varieties.
Reports of tariffs coming off in India and stories of troubles with the India pigeon pea crop (likely some relation) have lentils prices continuing to climb this week. Green lentils are seeing a nice increase in price with large green lentils trading up to 32 cents FOB farm for a #2 and small greens sitting in the 26-27 cent range FOB farm. Red lentils aren’t moving up in price as quick as greens, but we are still gaining strength with #2s currently trading at 27 cents FOB farm. Rising markets are always hard to trade into as no one knows where the top is, but this makes a perfect time to push the market with targets and/or to start making incremental sales – selling into a rising market is never a bad thing!
Mustard markets continue to trend sideways. In conversations with buyers, foreign demand remains quiet and everybody seems to have a “steady as she goes” attitude so far. Many growers are now complete on their harvest and yields continue to be all over map depending on where late rains went. Everyone seems to be wondering if the lower seeded acres eventually will lead bids higher as time goes on. Bids today for mustard are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow, Brown @ $0.305/lb FOB farm, Oriental Forge @ $0.275/lb & Cutlass @ $0.255/lb FOB farm. While it is early, it may be time to actually start thinking about new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.