Wheat markets push through the end of September with not much change in all aspects. Red spring remains to be quoted around that $9.00/bu delivered price at various locations with a few areas able to add on a couple cents to that number. Durum also remains rather stagnant this week and prices still appear to be quoted at the $14.00/bu delivered price range. The feed wheat market is posting values fairly close to a #1 milling wheat price, with indications around the $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm range, and some quicker than later movements. In the short term forecast, it does not appear that wheat futures are going to sky rocket anytime soon. One thing to keep in mind, however, is what Turkey ends up doing with their import and export side of things to the durum markets. To summarize, buyers and producers remain rather quiet on both the selling and purchasing side of the markets.
Barley seems to have a bit more traction this week in the overall scheme of things. Although prices are still being quoted around the $5.50 – $6.00/bu FOB farm range, buyers seem to be more active in purchasing this week. We suspect we do not see any changes in the nearby to the price, but even those values are a great sell into markets if you take the overall 10-year average on feed barley prices. Heck, if you take the overall 10-year average of feed and malt prices, you’re still floating about in line with posted values. Malt buyers remain active to buy good quality, but settling on a price seems to be the tricky area. Indication on most varieties sits around that $7.50/bu and higher delivered price. The tides have not changed and your best bet for malt is to come with grade specs in hand and throw them a number first, if you have a sell price in mind.
The carry-over on flax is keeping prices sideways. Values of $16.50 – $17.00/bu picked up is still attainable this week depending on area. Offshore exports are on the quiet side as the EU and China aren’t concerned about supplies since inventories are still comfortable. Harvest conditions in Kazakhstan have been reported as difficult. These reports haven’t shown any signs of a price rally yet, especially into the EU where prices have actually softened slightly. While supplies are able to meet the market demands for now, the unknown is if exports into China will continue at a strong pace. Selling some flax at these values if you need to get some moving is not a bad play.
Lentil markets slip a little this week due to political unrest between Canada and India. Reds took the biggest hit, falling from a high of 40 cents FOB farm, down to 38 cents FOB today. Large greens have been trading anywhere from 63 cents down to 60 cents FOB farm. The large green buyers seem to be willing to pay up if in the right area, or for the right movement time frame. Farmers seem to be getting better pricing if they are willing to wait until the new year to move their grain. Small green lentil bids are 60 cents FOB farm, down to 58 cents. Medium greens are trading in the same range as the Canadian small greens, and for American growers, that converts to 42 cents USD FOB farm. Short term outlook will likely see the red market take bit of a breather due to the Australian harvest nearing, and trade issues with India. Green lentils may be more aggressive as supply is tight, and demand seems to be steady.
StatsCan numbers indicate that this year’s oat crop is the smallest on record, with 41% of those acres coming from Saskatchewan. Expectation on production is that the market is in for a record low 2.44Mt with a projected carry-out of 0.35Mt. Decreased acres, accompanied by softer yield and carry, position this crop to see a bit of upside. As such, the market seems to be following trend with softer pricing during the typical seasonal glut right now, with prices sharpening up the further out you push movement. Bids are hovering around $4.50-$5.00/bu FOB on milling quality. Feed bids are hanging around that $4.00/bu range. As always, if you are looking for a little more in the pocket, an offer is a great way to test the waters.
The mustard market remains flat this week. Again, buyers are busy shipping their production contracts and seem content to pick up small amounts of overage. The spot markets continue to be in limbo, while growers hope for better bids down the road. Buyers are cautious as overseas markets remain quiet. It seems most of the mustard is now wrapped up, and the story remains the same: some surprisingly good yields in certain areas, to contracts only making up half the tonnage. Current bids for yellow mustard are in the mid to high 80s, while brown mustard hovers around the 80 cent mark, and oriental mustard sits in the mid-70s. Talk to your merchant about next year’s plans with mustard. Seed will be available shortly.
Faba bean prices have not really changed much in recent weeks. Buyers are indicating they might be interested to purchase #2 quality at around $13.50 to $14/bu picked up on farm, and feed buyers may have interest in product around $10/bu FOB farm. We are just not seeing much attention to make trades from either side so far. Slow trades are likely in part due to the faba harvest itself. It is usually one of the later crops to come off. Maybe things will pick up as we draw closer to the end of harvest. Soybean indications from buyers have snuck into the $15 to $16/bu range this week as the futures market has trended down, and buyers have again been apathetic to purchasing. As always, the Canadian production is a drop in the bucket and will largely depend on supply from the USA and South America to dictate where values go from here.
Peas are sitting steady in comparison to last week with very few changes. Green peas continue to show posted bids of $16.50-17.00/bu for #2, low bleach product, depending on delivery method and timeframe. Higher bleach greens are also highly sought after with bids on up to 15% bleach staying competitive. Yellows still face competition from Russian peas and are awaiting Chinese purchase, so they have remained quiet. Bids for yellow sit around $10.50/bu FOB farm or $11.25/bu delivered for #2 product. Some quick ship options on yellows have popped up but require max 14% moisture. Lastly, maples continue to look strong at $25.00/bu, with most buyers willing to look at all varieties. If considering making a sale on peas, touching base with your merchant and placing a firm offer seems like a strong move today.
At the beginning of last week, Sask chickpea harvest was reported at 87% complete. As growers finish up in the fields, many will be paying close attention to chickpeas with the current Canadian/Indian tension. But so far, prices have remained stable with most buyers maintaining bids similar to week’s past. Although some buyers have backed off a few cents, multiple buyers are still purchasing at $0.56/lb delivered SK. We continue to hear of high 7mm sizing as a result of the heat, but many buyers appear to be flexible in their purchasing. Call your merchant with size and grading, and we can help find a contract suitable to your product.
The canola market is seeing a bit of an uptick today on the heels of yesterday’s Ag Canada crop forecast update. Ag Canada adjusted 23/24 canola ending stocks to 1MMT. This is a sharp drop from their earlier published forecast. If this proves true, canola ending stocks will be at the tightest since the 2012-13 drought year. Saskatchewan canola harvest should be over 65% complete, with good weather ahead to promote harvest pace. From an export perspective, Ukraine is forecasted to increase rapeseed production by 17% year-over-year, and Canadian exports into the EU are expected to see some level of year-over-year pullback. Local bids are in the range of $15.80-$16.10/bu FOB farm location dependent.
The canary market is a bit of an interesting cat, so to speak. Growers are anticipating a price pull-up; even though acres are up, production is down. Anticipation is that production will be similar to that of the drought year. The hiccup for the producers’ price increase is that on the export side, demand is lagging, thus tempering buyer bids. There is little trade on canary at the moment keeping prices supported at $0.45-$0.46c/lb.
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