As updated reports on production estimates keep rolling in, it looks like green pea supplies will be up about 12% this year and yellows down 2%. Looking overseas, the Black Sea region is also expected to have lower production numbers due to reduced yields; this should bring less export competition for the Canadian crop, causing prices to firm up a bit. Currently, green pea targets have hit at $9.00/bu picked up, but buyers are actively showing bids closer to $8.50/bu. Yellow peas are trading at $7.00 – 7.25/bu picked up and maple peas have been trading at $8.00 – 9.00/bu picked up, with the latter being shown in south east Sask. India has also seen increased pricing on their yellow peas with stocks being limited, as per reports. We will have to see if this will end up affecting India’s import tariffs or not.
Feed prices have been holding strong in the wheat/durum markets this week. We have seen bids at $5 – 5.55/bu picked up. The stronger bids are being shown in south west Sask and with movement into the new year. We still have options for October – December delivery if you are needing cash flow before years end. The milling wheat market has been a bit quiet on the trading side, with bids around $6.50/bu delivered based on higher protein levels (13.5%). There is pricing on lower protein wheat, however, moving into the feed market is almost showing better/equal pricing opportunities. Milling durum is priced around $7.50 – 7.75/bu delivered.
The malt barley market remains a dead horse this week, not coming as a surprise to most. We have very few bidders on malt quality at present and suggest growers use firm targets to capture any potential buyers’ interest. Most recent indications suggest producers target the $5.00/bu delivered to plant range on 2 row Copeland and Metcalfe varieties. Although not a slam dunk, we may catch someone in need of product, just waiting on the right offer to come along. On the feed barley side of things, markets remain strong and trading between $4.00 to $4.50/bu picked up depending on location. You can see higher prices for pushed out movement into the Jan-Mar 2021 timeframe. As is usually the case, the closer you are to feedlot alley in Southern Alberta, the better the price will be.
Another week of patiently watching chickpea markets and waiting for a swing. There was a bit of activity from the buyer’s side this week to purchase in the deferred months. Early 2021 values for #2 Kabuli’s hit $0.30/lb FOB farm, but nearby remains $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm. The problem with this carry is that if a grower signs up for January movement and the nearby ends up getting support, they kick themselves for selling to soon, so instead, we wait. Feed/sample values are $0.12-$0.13/lb FOB farm and the desi market remains radio silent.
Flax pricing remains strong again this week with firm bid at $15.00/bu picked up before the new year. If you have milling quality, you could capture up to $15.50/bu FOB for a Jan/Feb type movement. Yellow flax has firmed up as well, now sitting in that $16.00/bu picked up range. These flax prices, early into harvest, reflect lower supply in the Black Sea region. The market is depending on fresh supplies and export destinations are sending clear signals with these values. However, this could prove challenging as Canadian supplies will not be able to meet all the demand coming from the major importers. The unknown is when this market will hit the price ceiling.
Canary seed harvest should be wrapping up across Saskatchewan this next little bit, as it’s estimated that there is roughly only 20% un-harvested. This should put us well ahead of the 10-year average. How is the crop fairing? Well, from reports that we are hearing, things sound promising, but the question that always plagues this commodity is the disparage in reporting. There are some that actually peg this crop to be upwards of 200,000 MT, a vast difference from roughly 159,000 MT that is floating out there right now. Either way, we continue to see pricing hold stead at 30-31c/lb FOB for movement within Oct – Jan. Price support is holding for this commodity and stems from the weaker CDN dollar, US millet crop shortfalls and possibly the confusion in expected harvest numbers.
Oats prices are sideways this week with milling bids around $2.50/bu FOB farm in most areas of the province; this doesn’t put a milling oat much better priced than a feed oat right now. If your farm is located in southeastern Sask we have had some milling bids catch $3/bu picked up on yard for fall movement. If you’re not in a hurry to move product the bids tend to get better into 2021 and you can put an extra quarter a bushel on your price waiting until spring as a viable option to lock in as well. We can see the finish line for harvest this year, but the north has been struggling with spotty rain dragging things out. Harvest pace had been wild, but it really has slowed down in the past couple weeks.
After a steady decline in canola futures to start the week, markets have rebounded in a big way today. November futures are up $8.40/MT today alone, placing them at $520.40/MT, which is up about $1 from the same time last week. Today’s big increase comes from the USDA reporting a large decline in US stocks of soybeans, corn and wheat when compared to a year ago. US soybeans stocks are down 42% compared to Sept. 1, 2019 and are sitting at 523 million bushels. This is a good chance for those that missed getting some solid futures prices locked in before last week’s slip.
Lentils continue to be the sought-after commodity this week, with the bright spot being small greens. We are starting to see them gain some strength after trailing behind so far this fall and bids are now in the 27-28 cents FOB farm range. Large green lentils remain strong as well with trades taking place at the 34-cent mark and even some firm offers triggering at 35 cents for #2 quality. Red lentils continue to trade in that 27cent range for October through December movement and the odd buyer willing to entertain 28 cents picked up for Jan-Mar shipment. In the last week buyers have also been looking for French lentils and Beluga lentils. The last Saskatchewan crop report had lentil harvest 99% complete, 11% ahead of last year. With lentil harvest wrapped up we are hearing from buyers that quality is mostly #2 or better for all categories of lentils. If you still have poor quality lentils in the bin this maybe the time to get rid of them as the pet food market will need product at some point to fill their rations.
It looks like the mustard harvest has wrapped up well ahead of the usual average, but markets remain flat as buyers digest the outcome here in Saskatchewan and Alberta. This will certainly lead to a good quality of mustard this year, with a high percentage grading #1. There has not been really strong demand behind export business, and this is keeping the bids firm, but stuck in this trading range for now. Bids today for mustard are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow, $0.305/lb FOB farm on brown, Oriental Forge at $0.275/lb and cutlass at $0.255/lb FOB farm. Even though October is just beginning, it may be time to actually start thinking about new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers.
Despite harvest pressure and easing Chinese demand, soybean futures are up strongly based on the recent USDA stocks report. Year or year inventories are down sharply and have spurred the market up dynamically. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.00-$11.50/bu picked up depending on location. Still good opportunities to contract new crop fabas at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Aussie faba bids are down and now aligned with long term market ranges. This will mean more competition for our fabas into Egypt and thus moderate our local bids. Some classes of dry bean (navy, pinto) have sharp production increases year over year, whereas white bean production appears to be relatively flat year over year. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.
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