Oats have maintained their stability this week, with minimal changes in values for both the feed and milling sectors. Nevertheless, the prices for both categories continue to hold at respectable levels. It appears demand for feed oats is facing some resistance, possibly due to feedlots acquiring more, affordable barley, thus reducing the immediate need for oats in their rations. On the other hand, milling oats are experiencing a slight increase in pricing, particularly for glyphosate-free product, which is being quoted at $5.25 per bushel for quicker delivery. This price can trend higher if you’re willing to wait, with the potential to secure a delivered price of $6.00 per bushel for deliveries extending into 2024. While reports suggest that overall oat production is down this year, it’s worth noting that there might still be carry-over stock from previous years in storage, which could mitigate the impact of the lower 2023 production. If you require more information or assistance with oat-related inquiries, please don’t hesitate to reach out, and we’ll be happy to assist.
The canola market has remained relatively stable of recent. November futures dipped below $800/MT in the past couple of days, following a few weeks of trading mostly sideways just above the $800 mark. The 2023 production numbers are still being finalized, and they haven’t shown significant strength. However, a recent adjustment by StatsCan concerning the 2022 and 2021 production figures has increased the “carry-over” inventory, contributing to the downward pressure on prices. Despite these challenges, there are some positive factors to consider. The local crush market is robust, and there is potential for increased purchases from China in the upcoming year, which should help support the market. Additionally, buyers are offering slightly better basis levels depending on the region, so it is advisable to explore your options and discuss these factors before making any sales to ensure you secure the best deal.
Mustard prices have maintained a relatively stable trend throughout this week, with no significant fluctuations following the release of last week’s StatsCan report. While lower yields have been observed, there is a slight offset due to an increase in seeded acreage. Consequently, analysts are predicting a 3% decrease in tonnage compared to the previous year. Although overall production appears satisfactory, a closer examination reveals variations among different classes: oriental mustard is on the heavier side, brown mustard falls into the moderate category, and yellow mustard is expected to be on the lower side. Currently, prices for oriental mustard sit in the mid 70 cents per pound range, brown mustard prices are fluctuating between the high 70’s and 80 cents per pound, and yellow mustard is priced between the high 80’s and 90 cents per pound. It’s important to note that these prices are volatile, so it is advisable to contact your Rayglen merchant for the most accurate and up-to-date pricing information. The stability in prices has been supported by reduced selling activity and the depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that there might be a potential decrease in demand from the United States as reports indicate a larger crop there.
Chickpea prices continue to hold strength this week, currently standing at 54 cents per pound, picked up on the farm. Data from Mexico suggests that exports in the upcoming year may slow down predicated on expected limited availability. This factor, along with concerns about the size of the North American crop, could lend support to prices, especially for larger sized chickpeas. In India, prices for desi chickpeas remain strong and are even showing signs of rallying. Growers with desi’s in the bin are encouraged to reach out to the office to discuss potential sales options. However, one potential unknown that might impede further price increases for chickpeas is the US market, as they have traditionally been a key purchaser of Canadian chickpea products.
Canaryseed continues to maintain its strength this week. Buyers appear satisfied with current price levels and are not showing much enthusiasm in pursuing higher bids, as they begin to receive some product from the ongoing canaryseed harvest. Yield reports vary significantly at this early stage, but harvest accounts are only just starting to roll in. Currently, the price stands at approximately $0.46 per pound FOB farm, but we welcome firm targets. That said, we have observed some offers from growers in the 50-cent range, but thus far they seem to be a bit ambitious for buyers and it might be time to consider securing some tonnage at these historically high values. Given the recent fluctuations in interest rates, maintaining healthy cash flow seems to be at the top of many growers’ lists and canaryseed could potentially help meet your sales schedule requirements.
The lentil market continues to exhibit strong pricing across various categories, including large, medium, and small green lentils. However, the uptick in red lentils last week doesn’t seem to be as persistent this week on rumours regarding India’s abandonment of a 60,000MT tender for small red lentils, impacting several North American bids, causing a slight decrease in values. Currently, #2 large greens are commanding a price of $0.62/lb FOB farm for Oct/Nov shipment. High quality #1 small greens are being bid at $0.60/lb FOB farm for the same time frame, while #2 medium greens are seeing bids around $0.43/lb USD (equivalent to $0.58 to $0.59 CAD) FOB farm October/November movement as well. Small red lentils are experiencing price variations, ranging from $0.36 to $0.40/lb FOB farm, depending on location and movement. We feel that once the $0.40/lb threshold is hit by more sellers, values may decline further. Feed lentils are currently valued at approximately $0.30/lb FOB farm.
Flax markets continue to hold their ground for yet another week, as we witness a slight increase in the number of buyers exploring purchasing opportunities. Bids remain steadfast, hovering in the range of $15-16 per bushel, FOB farm, for premium-grade brown flax, while yellow flax commands values of $20-22 per bushel, FOB farm. Reports suggesting a reasonable supply carryover may potentially curtail any significant surges in the flax market. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that there are still a significant number of unharvested acres, adding an element of unpredictability. On the global front, markets exhibit stability, with no single supplier outbidding another. This parity in pricing across suppliers adds to the overall sense of firmness and stability in the market, at least for the time being.
The barley market remains under significant pressure, with different dynamics affecting the feed and malt segments. In the feed market, an unexpected surge in supply, combined with pressure from corn and reduced demand, has created a challenging situation. Conversations with feed buyers reveal an oversupply relative to demand. Feedlots have already procured sufficient barley to meet their early fall requirements and have also taken advantage of the lower-priced corn for early winter stockpiling. One potential stabilizing factor for the feed barley market could be if corn yields turn out to be overestimated, leading to a potential rally in corn prices and making barley a more attractive option. However, there is a downside risk if more malt barley is rejected due to factors such a chit, further increasing the supply in the feed market. As for pricing this week, feed barley is currently ranging between $5.50 to $6.50 FOB Farm, with prices subject to daily fluctuations. On the other hand, malt barley bids are generally in the range of $7.00 to $7.50 delivered.
Maple peas are still in high demand this week, and buyers are showing interest in all varieties. Bids are currently ranging from $21 to $22 per bushel, with pickup at the farm. This market has been quite competitive, and in some cases, higher prices have been observed, depending on location, variety and firm grower targets. Green peas are also seeing steady buyer interest, with active bids at $15 per bushel picked up on the farm. This is a positive sign, as some offers have traded at even higher values. If you have a specific price in mind, it’s a good idea to communicate it to your merchant, as firm targets are generating interest. In contrast, yellow peas are facing more challenges, mainly due to subdued end-user demand and a surplus from the harvest. Typically, there is a quick sell-off of yellow peas during harvest to free up storage space, but currently, this process is slower. Producers are holding out for prices above and beyond the $10 to $10.50 per bushel currently offered. An important consideration are the high prices of pulses in the Indian market. This raises questions about how it could impact the yellow pea market here. With concerns about the supply in India, there is a possibility that the Indian government might reduce import barriers if yellow pea prices continue to rise. They might source from various other locations though, so this is something to keep an eye on as we progress through the marketing year.
Two weeks ago, Statistics Canada released their production estimates, and they projected soybean production to reach 6.7 million metric tonnes (MMT). This projection is based on increased harvested acres, with notable production growth observed in both Manitoba and Quebec. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently reported that the condition of their soybean crop was rated at 53% as good to excellent as of September 3rd, a rating consistent with last year’s assessment at this time. When it comes to dry beans, yield estimates are slightly lower compared to the previous year, placing estimated production at 270,000 tonnes. Mexico remains a significant importer of dry beans, with Argentina being one of its primary bean suppliers. Canadian bean supplies are expected to help alleviate Mexico’s shortfall in production, which could potentially lead to an increase in dry bean prices. Faba beans are currently trading at approximately $13.50 per bushel for export-quality, while there are also feed-grade options available for lower-quality faba beans. For the most current pricing information on soybeans and dry beans, we recommend reaching out to your merchant to discuss available marketing options.
Wheat prices were buoyed concerns over decreased production figures in Canada, Australia, and Argentina, primarily as a result of drought conditions. Concurrently, these dry conditions have accelerated the harvesting process in some North American spring wheat-growing regions. The United States is experiencing delays in winter wheat planting due to unfavourable planting conditions marked by dryness. Projections indicate that the most significant impact on Canada’s overall wheat production figures will stem from lower durum yields. Furthermore, recent rainfall during the Canadian Prairies’ harvest season is expected to heighten the chances of downgraded wheat. Currently, feed wheat bids range between $8.00 and $9.00 per bushel, depending on the farm’s location, while milling wheat bids remain closely aligned with feed wheat values. Durum values are posted at approximately $14.00 per bushel for nearby delivery, with a positive spread extending to $14.50 per bushel for deferred positions. It’s worth noting that target price offers have proven successful in securing small market premiums over posted bids.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.