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Rayglen Market Comments – March 16, 2022

Chickpea pricing is sideways this week with old and new crop still bid in the 44-46 cents/lb picked up range. New crop contracts carry an act of God and cover about 10bu/ac, making this a safe play to lock in some expected production. The latest export business seems to come from new, price sensitive buyers, which combined with reluctant farmer selling, is keeping sales sluggish. Some analysts are reporting Canadian seeded acres around 250,000, up 35% compared to last year. However, the sample size is likely small and even with conservative yield estimates, this would put supplies at the lowest since 2017/18. The world market is expected to increase exports in 2022/2023 meaning demand for Canadian chickpeas could be pushed off to the side. The US will play a key role as they are the largest importer of Canadian chickpeas.

Flax prices remain solid this week. Although prices are down from their record-breaking highs, there are still great opportunities around $36.00/bu picked up to get the remainder of your flax moving. New crop pricing is also historically high at $25.00-$26.00/bu, picked up with an act of God. The conflict overseas has created some uncertainty in the 2022/23 outlook. The Russian crop is expected to remain fairly large, however there could be some trade flow interruptions that have Europe looking to Canada for supplies. On the other hand, if the US has a recovery in flax production, there would be reduced demand coming from our neighbours to the south. While there could be increased exports of Canadian flax, the supply outlook also increases slightly. Ending stocking in 2023 are expected to be similar to this year.

Unfortunately, the pea market doesn’t seem to be keeping up with other commodities that are showing price strength this week. Old crop yellow peas are still bid at $17.00 – 17.50/bu picked up with the latter seen heading into the glyphosate free market. Green peas have seen some early $15.00/bu trades this week, only to pull back to $14.25 – 14.50/bu at the time of writing. Maple peas remain unchanged at $16.50 – 17.00/bu FOB, depending on variety and location with a small chance at $18.00/bu for very particular spec product – call for info. New crop pricing remains unchanged, however we do have a few more buyers coming to the table looking for acres. New crop yellows are priced at $12.00 – 13.00/bu and green peas are indicated at $12.00/bu, both picked up with an act of God. War tensions haven’t affected the pea market yet, but we may see China working on agreements to accept Russian peas into their feed market, which could affect local pricing.

Barley markets remain strong across the board this week and we continue to recommend growers make sales on both old and new crop. Spot values for feed barley sit around $9.00 – $9.25/bu FOB farm pending location and delivery timeframe. The slight uptick in values has been attributed to concerns over a potential CP strike and the increasing cost of corn. Old crop malt remains somewhat quiet, but it seems maltsters want sellers to bring them firm offers so they can work to get it traded. On the new crop side of things, feed barley comes with some very strong values, still indicated around $7.00 – $7.75/bu FOB farm based on location for a DDC (no act of God). Locking in 5% – 25% is a great starting point pushing into the 2022 crop year. New crop malt sales are slow, but there are rumblings of $8.00- $9.00/bu FOB farm contracts available with an act of God. If your selling points are slightly above these values, we highly suggest calling in and putting in a firm offer.

Strong pricing continues to be the theme with all mustards again this week. The war in Ukraine continues, bringing a very real uncertainty to the market in terms of available product to ship out of the region. Planting and trade sanctions are now also being thrown into the mix. We will see how this plays out in time.  Spot yellow is being quoted around the $1.85/lb FOB range, while brown has seen a little bit of pressure with bids dipping slightly to $2.00/lb for April-May type movement.  Oriental is quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm depending on variety with cutlass again showing signs of a marginal discount. New crop bookings have been steady again this week as pricing remains in record territory. We continue to think planted acres will be up this year. New crop brown mustard now sits firmly in the 80 cent/lb range. Yellow is up today, being bid as high as 90 cents/lb FOB farm, an incredible record for new crop yellow mustard. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75-80 cents/lb FOB farm. All these contracts have an Act of God on up to 10 bu/ac. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, with options of being delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you have not booked. Supplies of brown and oriental remain available. Keep in touch with us to come up with strategies to market your mustard in these volatile times.

Canola markets have been climbing as the conflict in Ukraine continues to be the center of the world’s attention. Today, we did see old crop canola futures pull back slightly, but oppositely, new crop futures have increased. As we write, old crop futures are at $1086.60/mt, which has been achieving local FOB farm bids around $24-25/bu. New crop futures sit at $930.40/mt, with growers being able to lock in $20-20.50/bu FOB for fall of 2022; this one seems like a “no brainer”. There is volatility in this market due to Russia and Ukraine tensions, so it would be good idea to consider locking in old crop and new crop bushels.

The bumpy road continues as wheat has pulled back hard on the futures chart, dripping red today. The downward trend of wheat has been linked with speculation of positive talks between both Russia and Ukraine, the Black Sea region opening up shipping, and India looking to take advantage and move their wheat into the market. Take that with a grain of salt as we continue to see drought like conditions in the US Plains coupled with tight spring wheat stocks. By no means have things resolved between Russia and Ukraine, no matter how positively words have been spun. A #1 red spring with 13.5 protein is trading around $12.60/bu delivered in the central Sask region, while feed moves around $11.50/bu FOB give or take depending on farm location and secondary roads. Old crop durum remains quiet for another week with bids around $16.50/bu delivered in on a 2 CWAD or better with new crop trading around $13.75/bu delivered in on a #2 or better CWAD.

The oats market hasn’t shown much get up and go lately as things seem to drag along sideways. Currently, we have prices for fall oats at 6 bucks or a little better at the yard the further out you push movement, i.e. higher into April 2023. Most oats contracts would not include an act of God, but some buyers have offered rollover terms into the following year, which would be a solid risk lessening option. Many projections on seeded acres are showing a slight uptick in oats in the ground for this spring, but at this point we don’t look to be overrun. Oats project as the #1 cereal to seed this year for many, so the acres may yet sneak up a bit and offer a promising outlook for oats into growing markets and health opportunities. Spot prices are still catching the $9/bu mark in most areas of the province when we put them up on firm offer, so if you are looking to unload some product still in bin let us know.

Lentils had another good week of trading as large greens lead the way with trades as high as 60 cents/lb FOB farm for a #2 or better on offer. Although these trades are scarce and firm bids are closer to 58 cents, we continue to suggest using targets to try and push the market. Currently, we do not have many buyers looking for #1/x2/x3/#3 large greens, but there are a few soft indications floating around, so please reach out to your merchant for details. New crop pricing contracts for large greens are quoted at 39-40 cents on a #1, 37 cents on #2, 35 cents on X3 and finally 30 cents on #3, FOB farm with an AOG. Old crop small greens are trading at 51-52 FOB farm, with the odd bid seen higher pending location. New crop contracts for #1 small greens are quoted at 39 cents with a discount to 37 for #2’s. Contracts are indicated as FOB farm with an AOG on max 10bu/acre. A few buyers are still trying to find French Green Lentils at 92 cents FOB farm with new crop pricing at 39 cents FOB farm with an AOG. Old crop reds finally got back to the 40 cent FOB farm mark this week for a 2 or better, and sales are being made. Delivery windows are quoted as April/May, but some offers have triggered for quicker shipment. New crop reds are trading at 34 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG.

Canary seed sales remain quiet, even though we did have more interest and some stronger bids to start the week. Trades on a few loads managed to hit in the 47-48 cent range this week, but those values were quickly dropped once tonnage was secured. New crop is sitting around the 35-36 cent mark FOB farm with and AOG today, virtually unchanged from previous weeks. New crop canary seed is at a historically high level, and growers are encouraged to take a good look at these contracts.

Strong global edible oil demand and prospects for a shrinking South American crop continue to prop up soybean prices. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Global dry bean crop production prospects are mixed. The Mexican pinto crop is reported to be larger than last year, whereas the South American crop now has some production concerns. Both old and new crop bean bids have recently received a small boost. There is healthy competition for acres from other crops as farmers finalize dry bean planting intentions. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. The 21/22 Aussie faba crop production number is firming up and is positioned at a 10 yr. high of 582k MT. New crop faba bids showing up around $10.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 9, 2022

Strong global edible oil demand and prospects for a shrinking South American crop continue to prop up soybean prices. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Global dry bean crop production prospects are mixed. The Mexican pinto crop is reported to be larger than last year, whereas the South American crop now has some production concerns. Both old and new crop bean bids have recently received a small boost. There is healthy competition for acres from other crops as farmers finalize dry bean planting intentions. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. The 21/22 Aussie faba crop production number is firming up and is positioned at a 10 year high of 582k MT. New crop faba bids are showing up around $10.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm range and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

We have not seen any major changes in pea pricing moving into the week of Mar 7th. Last week saw a bit of selling in the old crop green pea market as bids moved up to $14.50 – 15.00/bu FOB, which continues to be quoted this week. Yellow peas ticked up a little bit as well, with $17.00/bu FOB farm trading on some glyphosate free product. New crop remains steady on yellows, with bids ranging from $11.50 – $12.50/bu FOB with AOG. The latter of those prices is mainly quoted in southeast Saskatchewan. There has been some mention of potential new crop green pea business at $12.00/bu picked up with an act of God, so if you have interest there, we recommend trying out a firm offer. Moving overseas, India’s forecasted chickpea production is pegged as a 10% increase over last year, which will ultimately provide zero incentive for the government to reduce restrictions on Canadian peas.

The canary seed market has not had any price changes over the past week. Old crop is still bid at 45 cents delivered, with 44 cents picked up on farm working in most areas. We may see a slight increase in buyer interest come spring, but most seem content on keeping prices and demand at current levels. New crop remains historically strong at 35-36 cents picked up with an act of God. If we end up seeing a slight increase in canary seed acres this year and manage to avoid Mother Nature’s wrath, that should translate into enough supply to bump up exports back to average levels.

Barley markets take a step up the ladder this week, with renewed demand coming to the table. Old crop feed values move to levels that support selling interest and product has started to trickle in again. Depending on freight area and timeline of delivery, old crop values are floating around that $8.75 – $9.15/bu FOB farm range. Although buyers are looking for dry and heavy barley, everything is biddable, so call your merchant for details on off spec product. Old crop malt still remains to be somewhat quiet but that doesn’t mean they aren’t looking. Similar scenario: get your specs together, call your favourite merchant and let us see what kinds of values we can track down. Onto the new crop side of things, malt remains slow to trade, but indications around $8.50/bu have been seen. New crop feed barley values remain much the same as last week with some widespread numbers out there, but growers can expect anywhere from $6.75 – $7.25/bu FOB farm depending on area and delivery window. Although new crop feed comes as a DDC (no AOG) locking in 10% – 20% of your expected production should leave you with a good window to cover the sale as well as get some quicker movement and lock in cash flow.

Wheat markets have gone on quite a ride over the last couple weeks as the world’s biggest wheat exporter sees many of their other exports being slapped with sanctions and in some cases blocked. Wheat markets are feeling the heat as well with the possibility of exports being shutdown to many areas looming overhead.  Not to gloss over the other country involved in this terrible situation, is another of the world’s largest exporters and their ability to produce.   While they are fighting for their lives and country, this will obviously be impacted. So, it’s no real surprise this war creates a large situation of volatility due to many unknowns. Many bids on milling wheat popped up a little but didn’t go far and most seem to be back down at similar levels to the past few months. Bids are quoted a little over $12/bu delivered to facility today. Feed wheat prices remain at highly competitive levels to milling, with $12/bu picked up on farm tradable in many areas for summer shipment. Durum bids on #1, 13.5pX range from $16 to $17 depending on area and movement window.

Canola markets keep on climbing this week as conflict in Ukraine continues to be the center of the world’s attention. While experiencing a correction this morning, crude oil prices have exploded higher and contributed to strong increases in world vegetable oil markets. This in turn, is a big reason why we are seeing such high canola futures numbers. Those numbers include May futures at $1120/MT, up from $1080/MT at the same last week. July futures, which some physical buyers have started to base their bids off, are at $1087/MT. This has increased from last week as well when we were at $1044/MT. With extreme volatility expected while Russia stays in Ukraine, getting some canola sold into this rising market continues to be a good idea. For new crop, November futures are up to $921/MT and the magic number of $20/bu has been attainable.

While Flax exports from Russia are up compared to last year, the conflict happening overseas could pose trade disruptions, specifically into Turkey and the EU. Russian flax going into China is still well below Canadian values and those trade interruptions are unlikely. Canada and Kazakhstan have smaller supplies of flax, but if the EU turns to other countries, Kazakhstan will have enough product to offset what Russia is not able to export. We could see some short-term demand domestically as the trade flow adjusts. The unknown remains with the US and their supply needs as they were also pulling product from overseas earlier this year. For those with flax still in the bins, prices have crept up a bit this week, now sitting around $34.00/bu picked up with the possibility for slightly higher values well into summer months. New crop pricing has been holding steady at $25.00/bu picked up, act of God.

Stability is seen in chickpeas this week after a bit of a bump last week. Old crop #2 Kabuli’s were trading around $0.45/lb FOB farm, and it shook some of the stocks loose from inland. The bid is still there this week, but the depth is not clear. New crop finally felt some of those gains this week with bids getting as high as $0.44/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Again, some activity, but no one rushing to the table to sign on the dotted line. It feels like there has been a bit of restoration in the chickpea market surrounding global events. The theory is that delays from Russian stocks hitting export markets will keep supporting values as long as there is conflict and for some time after. There is also concern over seeding capabilities for both Russia and Ukraine, so combined, the market has all eyes overseas. There is always a demand for low quality chickpeas with values at $0.30/lb FOB farm or better depending on the down grading factors.

Sourcing good quality milling oats has been a bit of a battle this year and even more so on the organic side. That being said, there is buyer interest in conventional or gluten free oats with a considerable pop in pricing. To attain gluten free standards, specs are tight as there is very little tolerance allowable for wheat, barley, rye, and triticale in the sample. As well, the seeded acres need to be free from cereals the previous two years. If you are sitting on a “oat mine” that so far meet these parameters give your Rayglen agent a call to discuss further. Conventional oat pricing continues to hover around that $8.50-$9.00/bu range on a #2 milling quality, with pushed out movement nearer late spring/early summer depending on farm location. New crop values continue to hold steady around $6/bu give or take depending on movement and farm location.

Mustard continues to be a pretty interesting story. Uncertainly around the Black Sea region has of course added support to this market, with prices fairly similar to last week. New crop bookings have certainly increased again this week as pricing remains in record territory. We think planted acres will be up this year and as we approach seeding, we wait on Mother Nature to do her thing and patiently await supply numbers.  New crop brown mustard now sits firmly in the 80 cent/lb range with yellow being bid as high as 85 cent/lb FOB farm today. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75-80 cents/lb FOB farm. All these contracts have an Act of God on up to 10 bu/ac. Spot yellow is being quoted around the $1.85/lb FOB range, while brown has popped and now sees bids above the $2.00/lb range. These values are absolutely hard to believe, now around 100 dollars per bushel.  Oriental is quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm depending on variety. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you have not booked. Supplies of brown and oriental remain available. Be sure to be in touch with your merchant during these precarious times as things can change quickly depending on worldwide developments.

There seems to be a little more demand this past week in green lentil markets generally. Large green lentils lead the way for pricing and buyer interest, with bids as high 56 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location. One buyer reported to the Rayglen staff that Dubai is showing the most interest in purchasing at the moment. New crop bids have perked up as well trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG – great values to hedge your bets. The red lentil market is trying to get back to 40 FOB farm, but just can’t seem to break through the glass ceiling, currently sitting at 39 cents. New crop reds are trading consistently at 33 cents/lb FOB farm with AOG. Small greens have some interest as well with old crop at 50 cents FOB farm or better pending location.  New crop SGL’s are bid at 34 cents FOB farm with an AOG, but in light trade. As all markets seem to have gained a little strength this week, growers are encouraged to try firm targets on product still in the bin if these values aren’t quite where you want to be.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 2, 2022

Mustard continues to be a pretty remarkable story as it continues to show strength, especially now with the issues in Ukraine and the shipment of mustard being basically stopped out of that region. How long this continues is a guess at this point, of course.  Spot yellow is being quoted around the $1.85/lb FOB range, while brown has popped and now sees bids above the $2.00/lb range. These are remarkable prices! Oriental is quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm depending on variety. New crop brown mustard now sits firmly in the 75 cent/lb range with yellow being bid as high as 85 cent/lb FOB farm today. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75 cent/lb FOB farm. All these contracts have an Act of God on up to 10 bu/ac. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you have not booked. Supplies of brown and oriental remain available. Be sure to be in touch with your merchant during these volatile times!

There has been little pricing change on peas this week. We continue to see maples trade around $16-$18/bu depending on variety with yellow peas trading around $16-16.50/bu. There was a spark of life in the green pea market with some buyer demand and grower selling interest at $14-$14.50/bu. If you are looking for a home for some feed, buyer bids are coming in around $11-12/bu for pretty quick movement. New crop green pea pricing has finally made an appearance with $12/bu FOB trading on 10bu/ac with an act of God. New crop yellows continue to trade around $12.50-$13/bu FOB farm with stronger pricing in SE Sask. New crop maples are a bit elusive right now as buyer bids remain quiet. So, if you have a firm offer on old or new crop let your Rayglen merchant know.

New crop red lentils jumped out of bed this morning gaining 3 cents with an AOG included.  Old crop reds have been slowly climbing back to 40 cents delivered this week.  Large green lentils have trade as high as 56 cents for a #1/X2 delivered and 53 cents for a #2. New large greens are priced at 38 cents FOB farm with an AOG. We have had a couple buyers looking for small green lentils this week, asking for firm offers on new crop and old tonnage. One Eston firm bid was at 50 cents FOB farm on #1 quality. Medium green lentils have also gained some strength this week. Overall, lentils have had a better week than they have seen in a while.  There has not been much information as to what is driving this lentil market as not much has changed in demand. It may be as simple as the lentil markets are just following the other commodities like canola and wheat this week, but only time will tell if this is going to be short lived or if these prices will continue to strengthen as we get closer to seeding.

Canola has taken a bit of a breather here this morning from yesterdays strong trading at $1079.80/mt with some $25/bu delivered in targets having been triggered. The epicentre of the market’s volatility continues to circle around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A price hike in global crude oil has elevated edible oils further pushing the markets. Continued diligence is required when marketing as it begins to feel like a pendulum. At time of writing, canola is trading down to $1060/mt for May hitching a ride down with soybeans. November futures are looking fine at $881.40/mt with $20/bu new crop within striking distance.

Soybean prices are slightly down today after rising throughout the week. This feels like a much-needed break in upwards price action for a commodity that has been on a tear over the past few weeks. With crude oil still rising today and expectations of South America’s crop size to continue to be decreased moving forward, this bullish run may not be over yet. Canadian old crop bids are few and far between due to our low supply, but indications are around $16.50-$17/bu. Dry bean bids for new crop are staying flat in Canada. We do have some options with an AOG at the $50/lb delivered mark so call for more information. There is little movement in Faba bean bids with old crop #2 faba beans trading for $15/bu and feed faba beans around $13/bu. New crop bids are available at $8/bu FOB farm with an AOG.

Canary seed markets continue to be one of the least discussed commodities around, despite historically high prices still being on the table. Old crop bids have stayed at 45 cents/lb over the past few weeks, with very little selling taking place. Unless new demand pops up in the near term, one would expect that price to fall off if any significant tonnage starts getting booked. Looking out to new crop, contracts are available at 35 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG on the first 10 bu/acre. Current values continue to be a great starting point for next year’s canary seed crop.

The barley market continues to still kick around both on the new crop and old crop side of things. Old crop values range around that $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm price with the later being more difficult to find. Delivery on old crop feed barley is pushed out but still a great sell. New crop feed values sit anywhere from that $6.50 up to $7.00/bu FOB farm pricing depending on delivery timeframe and location. Malt quotes still seem quiet, however that does not mean maltsters aren’t interested. For anything you are sitting with we highly suggest calling in with what you have and letting us work our magic on it. Firm offers still remain a great way to grow interest.

Wheat markets remain to be “hard to read” in the last couple days & weeks given the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. With lots of wheat being produced and exported between the two countries many are left with questions on whether it’s going to be at a halt for weeks, months or even longer. Old crop milling values range in that $13.00/bu fob farm pricing depending on area and time frame of delivery. Feed wheat seems to still have some interest as well around that $12.00/bu FOB farm pricing but pushed into May – July delivery timeframe. There is interest on the new crop side of things as well but give us a call, show us what you have and let us do the work for you.

Chickpea markets see a bit of a bump this week with bids for old crop #2 Kabuli going to $0.44/lb FOB farm with sample quality bidding at $0.30-0.33/lb FOB farm. This could be a reaction to the Russian/Ukrainian situation as Russia tends to offer “cheap chickpeas” into the market and for the unforeseeable, that will be on the back burner. In the end, Russian product will find a way to market but between now and then, it could translate into business for North America. The Indian market has rumored a new record of production at 13.1mln tonnes and Australian production is the highest in 5 years. The current political climate has not affected the new crop bids. They are still sitting at $0.35/lb FOB farm on the high end with an AOG and as low as $0.30/lb. If you are in the market for chickpea seed, look no further and give us a call.

The oats market has quietly hummed along lately with bids remaining north of $9/bu picked up on farm in most areas of the province for #2 quality milling oats. Buyers are not overly aggressive as many have covered needs currently with some talk that they may need to belly up to the trough again before summer is through but are content for now. Posting firm targets has been an effective way to throw up a flag that you’re looking to sell and find the best bid available on the day. Feed and poor quality (some heated) oats have found a home at $5 to $6/bu range depending on quality and location around the province which, hardly needs to be said but, is an unreal value to get for low quality product. If you are looking for a sale for this summer’s production, we should be able to track down some buyer interest near and around $6/bu range as buyer interest has still been middling on that range.

Flax exports from Russia are up 14% compared to last year and availability doesn’t to seem to be of concern.  However, with conflict happening in Ukraine, there may be some trade disruptions, that could affect product going into the EU and Turkey.  Exports to China would probably continue as normal while the EU will likely turn to Kazakhstan or Canada for flax. While both countries have a smaller supply, Kazakhstan would have enough to offset what Russia is not able to export. In December, there was some flax moved from Russia to the US. If the crushers to the south of us are counting on more flax from overseas, we could see some scrambling happening to cover those requirements. There could be some short-term demand if the trade flow needs to adjust. For those with flax in the bins, $32.00/bu picked up is available with new crop still hovering around $25.00/bu picked up, act of God.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – February 23, 2022

The 2022 pea crop has many unknowns, but analysts are forecasting 60% more supply than last year -still below the 2020 average. Russia has been the dominate exporter of peas with the top importing destinations being Turkey and Bangladesh. Prices into China have now lowered, especially for green peas over the last couple of weeks, which could also encourage some buying. Yellow and green pea bids were mostly sideways throughout last week, indicated at $13.50/bu and $16.50/bu respectively. It remains unlikely that we’ll see a rally in value near term, as this would again choke off demand. There has been some renewed buying interest in maple peas this week, but values remain indicated in the $15-$16/bu range FOB farm. A change in direction for new crop prices likely won’t come to fruition until spring growing conditions become clear.

Flax markets are sideways from last week with bids still holding in the $30-$31.00/bu FOB range. New crop bids are still sparse, but a few contracts are being triggered using our target system. Analysts suspect below average yields for the 2022/23 year unless there is some relief in soil moisture. The price spread between North American product and Russian supply is wide enough to not generate export sales to most European countries or China at this point. Price will have to drastically reduce to become competitive again. Making sales on old and new crop flax makes sense this week.

Barley markets continue to hang around similar levels for another week. Old crop bids, although trending a bit lighter, still seem to be floating in that $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm range depending on area and timeline of delivery. These are great numbers to move product into a rather risk-free market, which has shifted its main focus to corn. New crop feed barley waivers around that $6.00 – $7.00/bu FOB farm without an AOG attached to it. Although this is a rather widespread number, much depends on the area in which it is grown and what kind of timeline you are looking at for movement. The lower end of that range relates to growers looking for off the combine movement (if those opportunities are present), while the higher end reflects a Sept.-Dec. shipping window. With the release of yesterday’s crop insurance numbers, it is inferred more producers will come to the plate to sign something up. Not much has been thrown out in the way of new crop malt, but if you have something firm in mind, bring It to us as all offers will be looked at.

Oat markets are showing signs of slowing down with a handful of buyers now on hold for purchasing. Over the last few weeks, higher prices have helped purchasers snap up both old and new crop, which has provided what they consider good coverage for the time being. That said, old crop bids are tougher to find today, but we encourage growers to continue to show firm offers. Having your specs on hand also helps to market efficiently, whether it be into a milling market, or feed. New crop oat bids are more readily available, although dwindling, with product still likely to trigger around $6.00/bu FOB farm with a deferred delivery window. With yesterday’s release of crop insurance values showing oats at $5.63/bu, getting something on the books at $6.00/bu makes sense. Some buyers are still offering the roll over option into 2023 on quantity and quality so even without an act of God, there is some protection against buyouts.

Chickpea exports have been slow for the calendar year with the US being the largest buyer for pet food and Pakistan being the next choice of destination. It is important to note and to understand that farmer to buyer trade is almost non-existent, while more and more business-to-business commercial trade has been taking place at levels equivalent to $0.42/lb FOB farm. Equal and even higher bids have been shown to growers on farm, but this has generated very little traffic. As old crop values hover around mid forties the new crop side has been seen at either no bid or a deferred delivery structure with no AOG. All of the aforementioned could translate to no confidence in the chickpea market, but this depends on if your glass is half full, or half empty.

Lentils see little change in pricing from last week with news of removed Indian tariffs still in the back of most minds. Large greens lentils hold value at 50-52 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location, while old crop reds see bids in the 37-38 cent range. Small greens are tougher to peg down, but we continue to see light trade at 44-46 cents/lb FOB farm with movement quoted out as far as June. New crop reds are priced at 29 cents FOB farm today, large greens at 37-38 cents and small greens between 33-35 cents/lb, all including a full AOG. When talking to buyers who attended the Gulfood Show, it was agreed that India dropping the import tariff came as a surprise. Buyers felt that it was an inflation play more than anything else, but luckily it has provided some spill over support. This week we still see India buying hand to mouth as the Indian crop is due to come off in short order. Australia still has product to ship as well so Canadian demand is still low compared to past years. Freight costs are another reason why prices and sales have been slower than usual recently, as end users are having to pay twice as much on freight compared to last year. On another note, we wait to hear what producers think on the SCIC lentils numbers and how it will affect their seeding intentions. Keep your merchant up to date with your thoughts and if these crop insurance numbers are going to change your seeding intentions so we can help you market accordingly.

Due to the ongoing tension surrounding Vladimir Putin and the Ukraine, commodity markets are on a roll and canola is no different. Also contributing to the gains are strong soybean futures after continuous downgrades to South American crops. The markets may keep rolling as we hit fresh highs, creating more bullish behaviour. May futures are now at $1038/MT, way up from last week at $997/MT. Out to July we are seeing $1006/MT, also up from last week when we saw $972/MT. For those sitting on a healthy supply, this may be a good rally to sell into to get yourself into a more comfortable position. November futures are also enjoying a strong increase and are up to $866/MT. The possibility of $20 new crop canola contracts locally is not the daydream it once was, and producers should be taking a strong look at selling a small amount of expected production.

Wheat prices have started an upward trend. Feed wheat bids are indicated around $11.25-$11.75/bu today, depending on location, with the strongest bids coming out of the central and southern part of Sask. Delivery windows are being pushed out, but at these values, it may be worth holding onto for spring/summer shipment. Milling wheat prices are picking up as well as tensions continue to escalate and fester between Russia and Ukraine. Couple that with some disparaging crop reporting out of the US due to drought and we see wheat values start to move upwards in a hurry. A #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein sits at $12.75-12.85/bu delivered into central Sask for Apr.-May movement. With crop insurance numbers out, wheat may make a decent play into the rotation showing strong values. Do we see more acre swings? Flipping to durum, bids continue to be lackluster around $15.50-$16.00/bu delivered in with new crop pricing around $12/bu.

Canary bids are in a weird place where the market is seen as “blah” without much for buyer or seller interest. That said, values remain at eye opening levels that would make any canary grower, prior to the past year, leap over their mother to sell… “Sorry Ma, you were in the way and canary was 45 cents, I had to act.” New crop bids are treading water at this time, trying to stay competitive with everything else, but we are not seeing a deluge of customers chasing the 35 cent prices despite historically strong values with an AOG clause to provide protection that a lot of new crop sales cannot. New crop with an act of God is a great play to take marketing risk off your plate, while protecting yourself from having to fill tonnage that you don’t have on a contract; ask your merchant for more details. Product in bin remains tight in the current environment, but spot values are comfortable to hover at current levels around 43-45 cents.

Soybean futures remain pointed upwards, being driven by stronger soy oil S&D and weakening production forecasts in South America. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Optimism still exists for Mexican and Argentinian dry bean crops. Early reports are staging the Mexican pinto crop at 1.5x larger than last year. North American prices continue to be a global high-priced island, thus stemming export potential. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. New crop faba bids showing up around $8.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

Mustard has been very strong this week, with some surprising trades on both new crop and old. Spot yellow is being quoted around the $1.60 to $1.65/lb FOB range, while brown has popped and now sees bids around the $2.00/lb range. This is outstanding if you have some laying around. Oriental is quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm depending on variety. New crop brown has shown strength this week again and sits in the 73 to 75 cent/lb mark with yellow being bid as high as 83/lb FOB farm today. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75 cent/lb FOB farm. All these contracts have an Act of God on up to 10 bu/ac. Be sure to talk to your merchant on developing a marketing plan for both old and new crop as things can change daily in this market. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you have not booked. Brown and oriental supply still remains available at this point.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 16, 2022

Last week’s StatsCan report showed a 31% decrease in flax supplies compared to last year: the smallest inventory since 1980 according to analysts. The month of December shows Belgium being the largest importer of flax, followed by the US & China respectively. The price spread between North America product and Russian supply is wide enough to not generate export sales to most European countries or China. Flax prices this week have taken another drop with spot bids now around $30.00/bu picked up. The European flax market has also shifted lower. New crop bids continue to trade sideways at $24.00-$25.00/bu, but we still do not have a lot of buying interest. Time will tell if this market holds, but current trajectory suggests growers should consider making sales on both old and new crop.

Oat markets remain, for the most part, unchanged compared to previous weeks. New crop #2CW bids are still indicated around $6.00 – $6.50/bu pick up depending on location and timeframe of delivery. Although there is no act of God attached to these contracts, a roll over option on quality or quantity loss into 2023 still appears to be attainable. Old crop #2CW values are posting a wide range this week, anywhere from $9.00 – $9.80/bu FOB farm, mostly pending location and shipment window. Although buyers are still purchasing both old and new crop oats, they seem to be comfortable enough as to not “chase” the market. As always, we have an active market for feed oats, but your best bet is to call in with specs so we can track down an appropriate value!

The pea market saw a slight uptick in old crop pricing due to China’s return to the market this week. However, this demand seems to come and go in spurts, so growers may want to consider taking advantage of some stronger pricing before it’s filled. Yellow peas are currently priced at $16 – 16.50/bu, while green peas are bid at $13 – 13.50/bu, both picked up based on a #2 quality. Unfortunately, maple peas haven’t gained much ground with most bids still indicated around $16/bu. That said, there remains a slight opportunity to hit the $18/bu FOB farm mark on variety specific lots. Looking to new crop, bids are relatively unchanged with $12-12.50/bu still attainable in Southeast Sask on yellows. This is a great value to lock in 10 bushels/acre with an act of God. We have had indications on product outside of SE Saskatchewan around $10-11/bu, but these bids aren’t firm, so growers are encouraged to use the firm target system. Similarly, green and maple peas have yet to see any firm new crop values posted, so we recommend trying out a firm offer if you have a target price in mind.

Chickpeas markets are still feeling a bit bearish after last week’s market shake up. StatsCan put out a large ending stock number (292k) that some have questioned and believe could be even 40% lower than their report. Globally, Mexican pace of planting is reported to be up 37% from last year and conditions thus far are favourable. Russia has been buying chickpeas more aggressively which could translate to interest in Canadian supply. Current market bids for old crop #2 Kabuli’s hover at $0.40-42/lb FOB farm with March-June movement. While this price is somewhat attractive, the shipping window has prevented large trade. New crop bid can be found at $0.39/lb FOB farm WITHOUT an AOG and dropping drastically to $0.25-$0.30/lb WITH an AOG. There are only a few players in this new crop game right now so expect that to become more level as we move towards spring.

Barley markets maintain tone for another week as the supply in the bins and issues with logistics have helped support the current values despite corn moving north. Old crop values are $8 to $8.75/bu FOB farm with freight sensitivity and new crop has experienced a bit of a bump at $6.75-$7/bu FOB farm for new crop, no AOG. There is still a lot of discussion as to what will be put in the ground this year, but there seems to be a consensus that selling what isn’t in the bin, is very unlikely. There were a lot of contracts that went the wrong way last year and we believe it will be a rush to market once harvest comes near. The earlier off, the better!

Soybean futures got back on their horse this morning motivated by South American drought related production concerns. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Expectations are favorable for Mexican and Argentinian dry bean crops. Domestic market continues to be adequately suppled due to temperate demand. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. This pencils in as an attractive revenue opportunity for new crop. New crop faba bids are starting to emerge around $8.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. As for old crop, the domestic feed market continues to buoy the feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

The big news in the lentil market this week was India announcing that they had lifted the lentil import tariff. It did not take long for the news to influence prices. Old crop reds gained back a couple cents moving the price back to 40 cents/lb delivered. New crop also moved back up to 30 cents FOB farm with an act of God. We don’t expect prices to run too much on this news as supply is still deep in Australia and India’s crop still looks good. Tariff eliminations did not do much for green lentils so far this week as bids remain in the 50-52 cent range for a #2. The green lentil market remains to be sluggish as buyers show very little aggressive demand while sellers remain patient hoping for a pop in the market. New crop contracts for large greens are sitting at the 35-37 cent/lb range with an AOG; latter bids are quoted for delayed movement in the fall.

Wheat prices have been off a bit with issues around the world affecting things of late. The situation with Russia and Ukraine has created market uncertainty and obviously the prices are going to reflect that. Ending stocks, as mentioned last week, are very tight, but that news didn’t seem to spur the market too much. Prices today are showing $11.75 del in for the next few months on a #1 CWRS, 13.5 protein, while the feed market has backed off as short-term coverage is met, and buyers are mostly looking into summer months for any purchases at this time. Feed bids are showing $10.50 to possibly $11/bu picked up on farm, which is a bit off from recent weeks. These feed values are nothing to scoff at, but they aren’t what most with grain in the bin are looking for on the last sales.

No change in the canary seed market this week from last, as prices remain consistent. Old crop bids sit at $0.45/lb delivered in with Feb./Mar. movement. Even with historically high prices and little change in value, grower interest to move canary right now is pretty quiet. New crop values are welcoming, currently quoted at $0.36/lb delivered with 10 bu/acre act of God for end of the year movement. Canary remains one commodity that has held its own throughout the general downturn in values comparatively.

Canola markets are in the green today, but this comes after a steady decline throughout the week. Several factors played into the drop we were seeing, with one of the bigger reasons being a significant decline in crude oil with Russia temporarily backing their soldiers away from Ukraine. There is also some general weakness in local basis levels for the nearby months, sending indications of lower demand in the near term. May futures are now trading at $997/MT, down from $1013/MT last week. Meanwhile July futures are at $972, lower from last week at $984/MT. Something to continue keeping an eye on will be South America’s soybean crop, where yield expectations continue to be lowered due to weather issues across large areas. November futures have managed to increase this week and are at $847/MT, continuing the strong new crop bids producers are seeing locally, as high as $19/bu. If comfortable, locking in small amounts of production at these levels makes a lot of sense.

This week saw mustard buyers showing a little bit more interest on the new crop side, while spot remains in the same basic range. New crop brown has snuck up slightly to the 72-74 cent/lb mark with yellow again being bid as high as 80-81 cents/lb FOB farm, both including an act of God. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75 cent/lb FOB farm with AOG depending on variety. These contracts and pricing continue to fluctuate pending movement timelines, so please talk with your merchant to determine your best option. Spot yellow is being quoted around $1.50 to $1.60/lb FOB range, while brown sees bids around $1.85/lb and all varieties of oriental are quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm. Be sure to talk to your merchant on developing a marketing plan for both old and new crop as things can change daily in this market. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you’re on the fence. Brown and oriental supply remains abundant and available.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 9, 2022

Flax has lost some traction again this week and only time will tell when we see that market start to settle and find its bottom. New crop bids are also becoming a bit sparser, but a few contracts are still hitting the books when growers use our firm target system. Canadian supplies are historically tight but due to acceptable Black Sea inventories, Canadian supplies are manageable for the export market. Analysts suspect below average yields for the 2022/23 year unless there is some relief in soil moisture. Based on a cautious yield of 20bu/acre, and early planting intentions, there is suspected to be 12% more flax supply than 2021. Right now, the trade is thin and for the Canadian market to find renewed demand from China and Europe, we suspect prices will need to drop further.

StatsCan estimates didn’t have much of a shock factor regarding peas, with supplies being reported 43% lighter year over year. These estimates were expected and if anything, prices were reduced again this week due to slowing demand. Right now, we see Australia’s crop is making its way into market and soon India’s crop will compete for market share. Notably, current weather conditions in India are favorable and this warrants an expected bump in yield. There have also been reports that Russia and China are taking steps to work together and have already lowered phytosanitary barriers, which will create more competition for Canadian peas. Today, pricing on yellow peas is at $16/bu, while greens slipped further to $12/bu FOB farm in some cases. Depending on variety, location and movement, maple peas have been trading at $14.50 – $16/bu FOB farm this week. New crop bids on maple and green peas remain slow, but we still have options available for yellows. Bids are now indicated slightly lower at $12 – 12.50/bu FOB farm with act of God in southeast Sask.; a good price to consider locking in 10bu/ac.

While most commodities have, for lack of a better term, taken a beating over the last couple weeks… oats remain the outlier only seeing small corrections while still holding most of their value. A #2CW old crop oat is still triggering around that $9.00/bu FOB farm for a delayed shipping window. New crop continues to be bid around that $6.00 – $6.50/bu picked up range, all dependent on area as well as time frame of movement. Although new crop contracts don’t contain an act of God, roll over options for quality and quantity loss may still negotiable, so make sure to ask your merchant if this is an option when contracting. Although posted bids for feed oats don’t seem to be as abundant, buyers are still looking. Your best bet is to let us know what you have and let us track down top bids.

It was mentioned last week that the GULF Foods trade show was taking place overseas, which has a large special crops presence. With all these buyers and sellers under one roof, markets tend to shake up and this year is no exception, especially in regard to chickpeas. In the last 24 hours the tone on chickpeas has started to shift. The market has become muddier with discussion of long positions and the word “liquidate” popping up. As a reaction to the rumor mills, buyers have started to hesitate when pulling the trigger on purchases or have even moved so far as to put a hold on bidding. Current indicated levels are now in a wide range from $0.35-$0.44/lb FOB farm, while new crop is quoted around $0.28-$0.30/lb FOB farm with an AOG with limited availability. On a global scale it is believed that chickpea consuming countries have been chewing through stocks, which should turn into demand mid summer. At the moment though, growers are deciding if they should hold or even if they should plant next year. If chickpeas weren’t clouded before, I’d say they are in a storm right now.

Barley prices continue to hold up to strong levels, with $8 to $8.75/bu range tradeable on farm to the feed market on min. 48lbs and dry product. On farm stocks are expectedly about as low as we have seen in quite some time, sitting at less than half of what we have had in some recent years. With the influx of US corn to Canadian feedlot rations, the prices have accounted for the lack of barley, but it is still a stark number to see and provides that the prices should remain supported for a while yet. New crop opportunities are strong at $6.50 to $6.75/bu range on farm, but do not carry an act of God clause on the deal, so the farmer trepidation to sign up tonnes for the fall obviously is warranted.

Based on StatsCan, it’s estimated that around 10,000MT more canary seed sits in the hands of the commercial user this year compared to last. Though export numbers are still under what needs to be shipped for the rest of 2021-2022 that extra bit buyers are sitting on continues to slow down the immediate need to lock in supplies as we move into spring. Suggestion is that even with tight stocks, a decent amount of the spring export sale has been covered. So far, pricing seems to be holding on with bids sitting at $0.45/lb delivered in. New crop looks to still hold strong value as well with $0.36/lb delivered in for Sept.-Dec. with a 10bpa AOG.

Canola markets have been a mixed bag as nearby has seen a small increase after an up and down week. May futures sit at $1013/MT at time of writing after seeing $1007/MT at the same time last week. July futures have seen a very small increase to $984/MT from last week at $981/MT. After a rise earlier in the week, futures dropped due to pressure from a correction in crude oil prices. Most of those losses have recovered today as crude oil has stabilized. StatsCan numbers released this week were in line with expectations as ending stocks at the end of last month we listed at 7.56 MMT. People now look to the USDA report being released later today to try and get a handle on where the market will move after trading largely sideways of late. November futures are at $845/MT, which is exactly sideways from last week as producers continue to lock in values around $18/bu for next year.

Mustard continues the week with great, but flat pricing. We seem to have found the sweet spot for now as bids have been sideways for nearly a month now.  New crop contracting has certainly picked up recent weeks at these terrific prices and old crop continues to trickle out of the bins. New crop brown and oriental are trading in that 70-75 cent/lb range, with yellow at 75 to possibly 80 cents/lb. New crop mustard contracts include an act of God & are picked up on farm. Spot prices remain at record highs, with yellow and brown being quoted around $1.50 to $1.60/lb FOB while all varieties of oriental are quoted at $1.00/lb or better. Now that we approach mid-February and prices are sideways, is it time to move on this old crop pricing? It’s definitely something to discuss with your merchant as buyer have indicated a potential slowdown in purchases and value. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow, so we urge growers on the fence to make the decisions sooner than later. Brown and oriental supply remains available.

Lentil markets continue to soften with little overseas interest in Canadian lentils at the moment. Even with the StatsCan report showing a 36% drop in supply, this has had no effect on the market. Lentils will likely be in a tough battle for a while as Australian product moves into the market and we continue to hear positive news out India. This, paired with the fact that Canadian lentils are overpriced compared to our competitors, makes it tough to demand higher values. Reading into the market would suggest many countries guessed Canada was going to be short product so they started rationing supplies early in the year while waiting for the large than normal Australian crop. With an oversupply coming out of Australia and perceived average to above average Indian crop, there is no need to panic buy Canadian product.

Wheat received a bit of a surprise this week after the release of the StatsCan report. The December ending stocks were reported even lower than most expected, 56% lower in fact, compared to 2020.  This surprised the market a little as this number was not projected and can be attributed to more wheat being used at the beginning of fall, which helped deplete stocks. This news has helped wheat prices rally this week and it continues to edge higher again today after the USDA released their latest WASDE report. Tighter supplies should have growers watching this market closely.

Today’s USDA WASDE Report trimmed about 239 million bushels of soybeans out of the forecast South American production number. This added wind to the sails of Chicago futures and soybeans hit highs last seen in July of 2013. Local bids are location dependent and range from $15.50 -$16.50/bu fob farm. The dry bean market remains adequately supplied due to modest demand. Mexican and Argentinian crops are not currently experiencing challenging growing conditions, so prospects remain favorable. These factors have extended some price pressure on bids. There has been little change in the faba bean market. Domestic feed pulse market remains as dominant market driver. Feed faba bids are in that $13/bu fob farm and when #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu fob farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 2, 2022

The lentil market has had a rough go over the last couple weeks as bids have dropped approximately 5 cents/lb across all types. Current bids are tough to hammer down as buyers’ needs aren’t deep at any price; its “buy a little, drop a little”. What we have today is around 37-38 cents/lb on #2 reds FOB farm, 56 cents on a #2 LGL and 54 cents on #1 small greens. The question we keep getting is: “will the prices come back?” Sure, they might, but the lower they drop the higher they have to go on the rebound, so it might be a bird in hand situation. Issues with a larger supply in Australia that is locked due to container shortages and a reported alright looking crop in India are hurdles for the market. New crop values are at 29-30 cents on #2 reds, around 35 cents on #1 small greens and maybe 38 cents on a #1 large green all with an act of God on approximately the first 10 bushels per acre.

 

Flax markets remain subdued with buyers showing no aggressive demand at this point. Spot bids at $37.00/bu FOB range remain sparce, while new crop values of $25.00/bu FOB with act of God are now also hit and miss. Although supplies are historically tight, analysts believe they are manageable. With new and old crop prices being historically high, we suggest growers take advantage of the opportunities available. That means signing up old crop and locking in the first 10bpa on new crop. Russia has been dominating the flax trade overseas into various markets, which means for China or Europe to have any demand from the Canadian market, prices here need to slip further. Canadian flax values are still priced well above Russian flax prices, which does not bode well for overseas sales. If it’s seed, you’re looking for, call our office today as supplies on flax seed are running tight.

 

Barley markets remains quiet, yet hot; an oxymoron to say the least. Although the price is a bit lower and demand is quieter for old crop feed barley than in previous weeks, bids are still rather aggressive based on the 10-year, or even 15-year average. There is a widespread number being thrown out there, but we suspect growers can still catch anywhere from $8.00 – $8.75/bu FOB farm depending on area and timeline of delivery. Corn is pushing this value lower and will likely continue to do so, but there might be some periodic price spikes should train deliveries get delayed. These opportunities are likely to be short lived and growers will have a small window to make sales, so make sure to keep in touch with the market. New crop values are bid in the range of $6.25 – $6.75/bu FOB farm, but a target slightly over those values could grab buyer interest. Malt activity is floating around for both old and new crop, so call in and show us what you have so we can track down the best value. We highly suggest avoiding getting caught in the abyss waiting for another $0.25 – $0.50/bu, while having bids drop by dollars overnight!

 

The oat market remains unchanged this week, unlike most other markets that are frequently finding new lows. Old crop, #2CW quality oats, continue to catch bids around $9.00/bu picked up on farm for shipment in spring/summer, while new crop bids remain at $6 – 6.50/bu picked up pending shipping window and location. Regarding new crop, some buyers are still offering a rollover option for quantity or quality loss should the coming harvest be less than ideal; not quite an act of God, but protection against cutting buyout checks. If you still have feed quality oats in your bin, contact your merchant for a picked-up on farm bid. Buyers will want to know weight of feed oats, so make sure to have that on hand when marketing.

 

There is lots of debate over what can happen with wheat, which has been the case for some time now, as the market morphs into this see-saw battle of prices rising and falling repeatedly. Today’s price on a 13.5 protein red spring sits around that $11.70/bu delivered into central Sask, etching ever so close to the $12/bu striking range. Feed prices continue to maintain strength around that $10.5-$11/bu range, which is catching sales this week. Switching gears to durum, the Tunisia tender that went out the other day traded at $643-$649 down roughly $50/mt from the last tender. On farm bids hover around $18.50-$19/bu range, with most growers hoping prices to pop back up to $20/bu. The next 4-6 weeks sems to be the window to sell, as durum crops will be coming in and then infiltrating the markets. This is a tight supply/demand situation so keep your eyes on the market. Flipping to new crop durum, strong bids continue to remain at $13-$13.50/bu for fall pickup on #3 or better product.

 

There are two major and notable markets for chickpeas; first you have the “volume buyers”: Pakistan, India, Turkey and Egypt, they move large chunks when there is a demand. Then you have the “niche buyers”: Europe, Mexico and South America which are single digit container markets with higher upside but smaller volume. Right now, Pakistan is buying chickpeas at USD$1000/MT landed Pakistan which works out to about CAD$0.38-$0.42/lb to the grower in Saskatchewan. Smaller niche markets are radio silent. Indian is planting the seed for another year of record chickpea acres. These areas are dominated by Desi’s with Kabulis being modestly increased. If this becomes actual, India imports may be very low and they could potentially start exporting, which could further hurt the North American market. Some things to keep an eye on are pet food markets and the Indian holiday Ramadan in April. Typically, there is a time to “stock up” before Ramadan and that could produce a spike in interest for North American markets. Additionally, the Gulf Foods show is next week which should shed some light on the global market.

 

Mustard remains strong but flat this week. After seeing a solid 3-4 weeks of stable pricing, we believe the massive rise has ended and start to notice buyers getting a little more cautious. Spot prices remain at record highs, with yellow and brown being quoted around $1.50/lb FOB (potentially higher on offer) while all varieties of oriental are quoted at $1.00/lb or better. Is this the time to lock in these values while they’re still available?  New crop contracting continues at a good pace, which again is not surprising with these price levels. New crop brown and oriental are trading in that 70-75 cent/lb range, with yellow at 75 to possibly 77 cents/lb. New crop mustard contracts include an act of God & are picked up on farm. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow, so please talk to us very soon on if you need some. Brown and oriental supply remains abundant.

 

The recent rally in soybean futures is being driven by harvest rain delays in South America along with solid domestic soybean crush demand. Delays in the Brazilian harvest increase the prospect for late season shipping opportunities for US exporters. Local bids are location dependent and range from $14.50 -$15.50/bu FOB farm. Dry bean bids remain buoyant predicated on the smaller 2021 crops in Canada and the US. Canadian bids are feeling downward pressure from recent gains in the Canadian dollar. Dry bean market needs to see an uptick in demand for these production decreases to create any upward price movement. Faba beans are currently largely driven by domestic feed pulse prices. Feed faba bids are quoted at $13/bu FOB farm and when #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

 

The footing seems to be holding right now on canary seed with bids at $0.45/lb picked up on the farm for Mar/Apr shipment. Chatter is pretty tame in this market compared to many others. Most growers seem content to hold out for the next price pull up and buyers seem to be content with their current fill and so the stand off continues. Supply for this year will definitely be running on fumes. Looking ahead to new crop values, buyer bids are ranging from $0.35-$36/lb with a 10bpa act of God. A petty decent starting value to pencil into the books.

 

This week has brought some strength to the canola market. May futures are up to $1007/MT and were even higher at points earlier in the week. This is better than last week when we were seeing $995/MT. July futures are down today and sit at $981/MT. Much of the strength this week has come from an uptick in soy and increases in crude oil. Tight stocks of canola in western Canada will keep prices high until we get closer to next years crop being available. Looking out to new crop, November futures are at $845/MT. This is another steady jump up from last week when we saw $836/MT. Local new crop bids are available around $18/bu and are definitely worth considering when developing next years marketing plan.

 

Sales pressure on yellow peas continues this week, while the green pea market is still missing in action. New crop yellow peas closed last week trading at $13/bu with an act of God but opened this week trading between $12.00-$12.50/bu. Now, that too has been filled and as most bids are coming in closer to $11/bu on farm today. Old crop yellow peas are still trading around the $16.00/bu range and possibly higher for summer shipment, but bids in general are getting harder to find. Green peas lagged behind all year and that trend continues. The marketplace seems to have little interest in this product at the moment with buyers’ content to trickle in limited tonnage at $13.00-$14.00/bu on farm this week. With slow overseas demand and cheaper food sources available, don’t expect a quick turnaround in the green pea market. On the other hand, yellow peas are still trading a record high levels and grower should likely take advantage of the remaining opportunities before they disappear.

 

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 26, 2022

After a week of ups and downs, the canola market has settled, now trading sideways this week. Some profit taking has been putting pressure on, but strength in crude oil has been giving support to vegetable oil prices and levelled the playing field. When it comes down to it, prices need to stay high to limit exports and ensure we have enough canola to crush domestically. March futures currently sit at $995/MT, which is exactly where we were at this time last week. Some buyers have started trading off the May futures, which is at $990/MT. Looking to new crop, November futures have continued to show strength and are at $836/MT. This represents a large increase from the $800/MT we were seeing last week.

Flax prices went down again this week, with bids stretching to $36-$37.00/bu picked up. More signals that the highs on flax prices from a couple months ago are past their prime. The average bids in the US have started to decline and that is where most of the strength in Canadian prices was coming from. If the Russian flax production estimate is close to accurate, then global supplies aren’t that tight. New crop flax prices continue to hold in the $24-$25/bu range picked up with an act of God.  With a year of historically higher spot prices, new crop is also historically high, and a serious look needs to be taken at locking some acres up at these values.

Despite the lowest predicted carry since 2003, the canary markets are unseasonably quiet. Historically there would be a rally this time of year but that does not seem to be the case as Argentina continues to export to Brazil.  Current crop values range from $0.44-$0.47/lb FOB with freight sensitivity. This has not been contracting on the regular, but the feeling is this is due to lack of supply vs lack of interest. New crop bids are $0.35-$0.36/lb FOB farm for Nov.-Dec. and generating very little interest. The feel of the market is that despite a potential acreage increase for the coming season, demand and values will maintain strong tone.

Chickpea markets have experienced over $0.10/lb drop in the last couple weeks, but in the grand scheme of things, they still hold decent value. There was a spark of a rumored tender in the market, but that has yet to come to fruition. Old crop #2 Kabuli bids are around $0.43/lb FOB farm, and it is believed there is still quite a bit on farm. Sample grade chickpeas are valued at $0.30/lb and new crop values are indicated at $0.30/lb FOB farm with and AOG. There seems to be a bit of buyer hesitation to own any large parcel of chickpeas right now, but buying interest is steadily present.

The pea market had been sideways for quite some time and just in the last 2 weeks we have seen the values take a correction and start to pull back. US demand that was holding up yellow peas bids has been filled and prices have softened. Old crop yellow peas are currently at $17/bu picked up, but freight and location sensitive. Green pea pricing had a sharper fall this week, from $15.50/bu down to $14/bu, as there appears very little overseas demand. Maple peas pulled back slightly, but $17 – 17.50/bu is still available depending on variety and location. What has remained strong in the pea market is new crop pricing. We have a seen $13/bu picked up with act of God trade on a few acres of yellows this week, while green peas have had gained some interest at $12/bu picked up.

Demand and pricing both softened in the past 2 weeks; however, oat pricing is still at historically favorable levels. Old crop pricing based on a #2 quality is at $9/bu depending on location with movement getting pushed out into spring. New crop values are also at $6/bu picked up for a September – December shipment and possibly higher for growers willing to hold onto product until 2023. If you still have feed quality oats in your bin, depending on weight and reason for downgrade, $6/bu has traded into the feed market. Please have specs on hand so we can effectively market your product!

Talks around barley remain quiet on the old crop side of things, but the new crop values that are being thrown around are attention seekers. Old crop feed barley sits in a widespread range with levels of $7.50 up to $8.50/bu being quoted, all depending on timeframe and location. Spot malt barley still does not seem to be a topic of discussion, but rumors of $8.00/bu FOB farm new crop with an AOG are floating around. New crop feed barley is showing some historically big numbers and ranging anywhere from $6.00 – $6.50/bu on farm, depending on location. This however does not come with an AOG, so there is some inherent risk, but locking in 5% – 10% of your expected production should leave you pretty safe. Although markets seem hard to catch as there is sporadic highs and lows daily, your best bet is to call in and show us what you have. Let us do the work for you and try to get your top dollar. Although the number on old crop seems lower and not much of a selling point for growers, at the end of the day these are still very strong values to lock in some product.

Red lentil markets are feeling all sorts of pressure as of late. Markets are sliding due to increased domestic farm sales, decreasing demand for high priced Canadian lentils when other countries are willing to sell for cheaper and Australia’s logistical system freeing up. New crop reds are also under pressure as early speculation is suggesting an increase in acres, larger carry out than first estimated and reports of a good start to the Indian crop. Moisture is still a concern for most of the lentil growing areas in Canada, but at this point it is too early for it to affect the market. Farmers are showing some interest in signing up new crop reds, but these programs are filling fast as the tonnages and acres are limited. At this point in time there is more information pointing to a weaker red lentil market than a stronger one. Due to the prices changing so quickly this week it best to call to discuss bids on your farm.

The wheat market rollercoaster continues on this week as what started off good has soured, dropping some bids roughly $0.25 – 0.30/bu. Delivered in bids on a 13.5 pro #1 sit at roughly $11.70 to just under $12/bu with the later for pushed out movement. HRW crops in the US continue to run on the dryer side pushing crop conditions down, which you would think would show some price support, but to no avail, so far. Then there is the geo-political issue with Russia and Ukraine that could impact wheat prices moving forward. Feed pricing has also taken it in the teeth as delivered in bids into feedlot alley seem to be hovering around $410/MT. Sitting outside of this strike zone doesn’t seem as friendly with SE Sask right around $10/bu as the going rate. Looking for the upside? Look no further than new crop durum.  With a #3OB, trades have triggered in SE Sask around $13/bu but if you have an offer, you may be able to snag a little bit better. Old crop pricing seems to be holding on around $19.50/bu in the South half of the province give or take a quarter.

Private analysts expect the combined South American (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) soybean output to be a 4-yr low of 186.3 MMT. This spurred double digit gains on the Chicago futures. Local bids are location dependent and range from $14.50 -$15.50/bu FOB farm. Dry bean bids remain buoyant predicated on the smaller 2021 crops in Canada and the US. Canadian bids are feeling downward pressure from recent gains in the Canadian dollar. Dry bean market needs to see an uptick in demand for these production decreases to create any upward price movement. Faba beans are currently largely driven by domestic feed pulse prices. Feed faba bids are in that $13/bu FOB farm range and when #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

Mustard markets remain level this week. This is the second week in which we have seen prices stabilize. New crop contracting continues at a good pace, which is not surprising with levels being so strong. New crop brown and oriental are trading in that 70-75 cent/lb range with yellow at 75 to possibly 77 cents/lb. New crop mustard contracts of course include an act of God & are picked up on farm. Spot prices remain solid, with yellow and brown around $1.50 -$1.75/lb FOB and all varieties of oriental quoted at $1.00/lb or better. Those with product in the bin may want to consider taking advantage of these values while they’re still available as the levelling of prices may suggest the market is topping out. This is yet to be seen so we will need to monitor prices and demand from buyers. We have seed remaining, so if you’re in need, we can supply all types of certified, treated, or untreated and delivered to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 19, 2022

Barley markets have seen a slight dip in value this week with bids now indicated at $7.75 – $8.75/bu FOB farm depending on area and freight costs. These values continue to be quoted for March-May shipment with little to no demand seen for quick movement. Historically speaking, these are still amazing prices to offload feed barley. Not much for news in the way of malt, but if you are sitting with some on farm, your best bet is to call in with specs and let us see what values are attainable; indications have been quoted around $10.00-$10.75/bu FOB farm. New crop malt figures still seem to be somewhat up in the air, but depending on delivery timeframe, area, and variety, we have had bids pencil in around $8.00 – 8.50/bu FOB farm with an act of God. Please call your favorite merchant to discuss the contractual obligations required to obtain the AOG. New crop feed values are still indicated around $6.00/bu FOB farm and for those looking for a bit more, a firm target is likely going to get some attention.

As we know, markets started to pull back last week with the downward trend continuing into this week. The decline in bids was predominantly seen in green and maple peas, but yellows didn’t go unaffected. For those still holding yellow peas, we do have one option left at $18/bu FOB in South Central/Southeast Sask. for a deferred shipment window. Outside of those areas, values have dipped to $17/bu FOB in the glyphosate free market and $16.50/bu FOB range if they’ve been sprayed. Green pea bids have backed off to $15/bu FOB, with limited buyer interest, while maple peas are now priced at $17 – 17.50/bu FOB. New crop bids remain steady, and we are still able to trade $13 – $13.50/bu FOB in Southeast Sask. for yellow peas. We continue to recommend firm targets at $13/bu in other areas. New crop green peas have seen some life this week with the first new crop trade hitting the books at $12/bu FOB farm with an AOG; a good price to start thinking about locking in a few bushels.

Prices on flax this week are signaling downwards and without much demand, bids are sitting around $38.00/bu picked up in most locations. Canada exported 80,000 tonnes of flax during the first four months of 2021/22, this is compared to a 5-year average of 126,000 tonnes. Reports out of Russia are showing a jump in flax acres, so, while the yield was below average, there was a 40% increase in supply from 2020. This explains why prices out of the Black Sea region haven’t risen as high as Canadian prices and why Russian flax has dominated Chinese imports. Import demand from the US kept Canadian flax prices at an all-time high, but there is still a limit on what the crushers to the south of us need and that demand has backed off.

Well, the old adage of “high prices cure high prices” appears true once again. For months now buyers have been hinting that these prices were higher than the market could sustain and now that growers are willing to make sales, the market can’t handle the pressure. All grain markets have slipped back a little in the last 4-5 days and lentils are no exception. There are a few factors that are affecting the market; there is more product coming to the table than there are back-end sales, shipping is below average and cheaper product is available from around the world. With the combination of reduced shipping and high prices, expect to see an increase in ending stocks as we near summer. The increase in ending stocks will likely not be a huge adjustment, but just enough to keep markets from rallying.  Prices do however remain at the upper end of historical highs for both old and new crop. Buyers seem to have limited tonnage for both old and new crop making pricing very volatile. Think execution over hesitation when markets are changing this fast.

We’ve got a pulse folks. A breath of life has put some wind back into the sails of the milling wheat market, thank goodness. On a #1 CWRS 13.5 protein look for $11.80 – $11.95/bu range delivered in Central Sask. for Feb./Mar. timeframe. Now you can exhale as the wind is still a tad lackluster when it comes to the feed side. Buyers seem to be around that $10-$11/bu picked up on the farm depending on location. Movement is pushed out as a wealth of corn has been infiltrating the feeders for some time now. Switching gears to durum, new crop trading is going strong around $13-13.50/bu range in Southeast Sask. Old crop has softened to $19.50-20/bu delivered in. Buyers are always on the search for product so if you have a different price range and movement in mind give your Rayglen merchant a call.

The oats market has been quieter in recent weeks as buyers have covered a good portion of their needs this crop year. Spot bids are showing prices around $9/bu on farm (depending on freight area) for a #2 quality product still in the bin. Movement for many buyers has been pushed out into summer months at this time. Feed oats prices are just north of $8/bu in many areas depending on what the downgrade factors are. If you are planning to seed oats this year, there’s some very attractive levels on new crop out there at $6/bu or a bit better for fall movement with prices carrying a bit more clout into Winter/Spring of 2023 for those with storage.

After a week of consistent decreases, canola futures are showing signs of recovery today. While prices have not returned to their yearly highs, a significant bounce back today is an encouraging sign for those with canola still in the bin. Strength in crude oil and support for vegetable oil markets around the world are helping raise prices today. March futures currently sit at $995/MT, down from this time last week when they were $1010/MT. Looking out to new crop, bids have strengthened and now sit at $800/MT on the November futures. This has increased since last week when they were at $790/MT. Depending on local basis level, some bids may be available for over $18/bushel for fall delivery. This is very strong and worth looking at.

Pricing has taken a hit on most specialty crops this week and canary seed is no different. With low demand being a common theme at historically high prices, bids for canary seed have slipped down to 48 cents/lb FOB farm for a Feb.-April movement period. Bids at this value do not appear to be very deep and if a few sales are made, we could see further price drops. Typically, the next major export season for canary will be around April/May. With that being said, this year has been anything but typical and we will have to keep a close eye on demand levels and how many buyers are aggressively looking to purchase. New crop values are still historically strong between 35-36 cents/lb FOB Farm for Sept.-Dec. movement with a full AOG on the first 10 bu/acre.

Soybeans have found some recent upward momentum due to questionable South American production forecasts and decent domestic crush demand. Local bids are location dependent and range from $14.50 -$15.50/bu FOB farm. Dry edible beans saw a decrease in local bids over the holiday season. Recent USDA reports indicate a year over decline in production, but somewhat moderated by carryover inventories. Mexico dry bean production is anticipated to be down year after year, with some reports as high as a 30% decrease. A return to “normal” demand is required for these production decreases to create any upward price movement. Faba beans continue to ride the wave of strong domestic pulse prices. Feed faba bids are in that $13/bu FOB farm and when #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.

Mustard markets remained very strong this week and seem to have stabilized for now. We are seeing a bigger uptake in new crop contracting as of late from the grower side, which is not surprising. New crop contracts remain very strong for brown and oriental in that 70-75 cent/lb range with yellow up at 77 cents or even higher on offer in some cases. New crop mustard contracts of course include an act of God & are picked up on farm. Spot prices remain very strong also, with yellow and brown around $1.50 and all varieties of oriental quoted at $1.00/lb or better. Something of interest to note; we have seen one mustard buyer go “on hold” for spot purchases while they reevaluate their position. Does this hint at mustard markets quieting? Those with product in the bin may want to consider taking advantage of these values while they’re still available. We have seed remaining, so if you need seed, we can supply all types of certified, treated, or untreated and delivered to your yard.

Chickpea markets continue to struggle this week. Most buyers are reporting that slow foreign demand and shipping issues continue to plague the market. Bids continue to hover around $0.46/lb FOB farm for March to June movement, with the odd bid popping up on a case-by-case basis at 47 cents, but these opportunities remain few and far between.  Moving chickpeas in February looks near impossible right now and, in many cases, it is difficult to even get a bid from buyers. Rumors of a chickpea tender are out there and maybe that helps to provide some support. This is yet to be seen, and we will update you on any developments on that front. New crop has a bit of talk in the $0.30-$0.35/lb range, but very remains quiet.  Seed will likely be in demand as we are hearing reports of some terrible germination numbers in last year’s crop, so it is wise to send your sample off for germ tests to avoid surprises. Call us if you need a quote on some seed delivered to you.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 12, 2022

The feed wheat market is running mostly sideways this week. It seems $11.50/bu picked up on farm is attainable in most corners of the province, but that price comes with a movement window pushed into the spring timeline in most cases. Current bids, in many locations, on #1 CWRS do not show much better and in some cases are worse than the feed price. When comparing these two, #1 wheat bids are quoted as delivered plant, rather than FOB farm. Current bids on durum are floating around $21/bu for #1, 13% protein in many areas of the province; product remains in light trade. There have been some prices indicated for new crop fall delivery durum in and around the $13/bu mark as a starting point, but these contracts don’t carry an act of God, so there is some inherent risk there as well. If you want more info. on any of those programs feel free to reach out to us.

The pea market remains the same for yet another week. Most of the demand for yellow peas is coming out of the United States as we have priced ourselves out of the overseas markets. Therefore, if the US and local demand slows down, we may see yellow peas pull back a bit. Currently, yellow peas are priced at $17 – 18/bu picked up, with the latter being seen in limited areas and for pushed out movement. Green peas bids are at $16/bu delivered but this market remains quiet as demand continues to be lacking. Maple peas have slipped a bit with bids now at $17 – 18/bu picked up. Looking at new crop, the only peas with a posted bid are yellows at $13/bu FOB farm, location dependent, so speak with your merchant on details.

The barley market and consequently pricing seems to have found some equilibrium based on comments made in earlier reports.   Corn is starting to supply many feed lots so demand for feed barley seems to be slowly dropping off. There is still opportunity to sell $8.50-$9.00/bu FOB today, but don’t expect the movement to be any sooner than March forward. Previous barley purchases seem to have buyers covered for Jan. to Feb. timelines, especially when you factor in corn subsidies or in some cases replacement in rations. The malt side remains quiet for trades, but demand is still seen from a few buyers. Your best bet is to call in with specs & details and let us see what values are attainable, but recent indications have come in around $10.50/bu FOB. We aren’t seeing too much for quotes on the new crop side of things, but we suspect targets around $6.00/bu FOB farm for feed and $8.50/bu for malt may get some interest. Although contracts are quoted without an act of God, locking in 10-20% of your expected production should be pretty conservative, offering you a good start to cashflow and bin space.

No change on the canary seed front as the market continues to hover around $0.50/lb picked up with pushed out movement, predominantly March onwards. If you are looking to get some activity a little sooner, knock the price back a penny or two as shipping for Jan./Feb. continues to be tight as buyers appear to be decently positioned. The next export shipping period for canary will be Apr./May so it will be interesting to see how much volume buyers still need to purchase to fill the boat. With tight stocks the last couple years now, pricing looks favorable moving forward for new crop. Buyer interest with an act of God ranges around $0.35-$0.37/lb depending on farm location.

Flax markets have become quiet in the new year. The highs we saw a month ago have trended down and this week prices sit at $40.00/bu or less. New crop pricing can still be captured at the $24-$25/bu range, picked up with an act of God. Signals from oversea markets are weaker as there is competition from the Black Sea region. There is also some demand rationing taking place. This trend is something we saw coming as the US market kept the prices high, but their demand has been filled. New crop yellow flax indications are around $30.00/bu. Seed supply remains tight, so if you are needing seed for 2022, best to call our office sooner than later.

Lentils had another slow week of trading with the feel that values may be backing off a little. Common bids seem to be around the 44-45 cent/lb mark for red lentils, 62 cents/lb on large greens and 59-60 cents/lb on small greens, but bids are getting harder to find as the week moves along. Not much has been seen yet for new crop lentil programs, with buyers and sellers seeming to be a couple cents apart on pricing. A minimal number of small reds have traded around 30 cents/lb this week, while small greens are bid around 40 cents/lb delivered for #2 quality. Large green lentils remain pretty much a non-topic but based on some medium green lentil trades done in the US, large greens should likely be valued around that 35-37 cent range for a #2. We will wait and see what price farmers try to target or if a buyer steps up with a program.  At this point in time, conversations with buyers indicate that there will be contracts available, but not to expect large quantities being booked. Once a program fills that maybe it for the year.

Chickpea markets have seen a sharp decline in value over the last 7 days. Bids for a #2 or better Kabuli went from $0.53/lb FOB farm to $0.485/lb overnight. Current values are hovering around $0.45/lb FOB farm for Feb.-April movement and the phones are lit up with sellers looking for that $0.50/lb option.  So, what happened?! One explanation and most plausible is time… the current levels on a global scale have not been supportive of trade and therefore the bins remain closed. As time has passed, other countries have harvested, seeded, sold… rinse & repeat to the point where the demand out of North America is minimal. Pet food is one of the main drivers for chickpeas and the depth of that market is not endless. So, what does it take to see a spark in this old dog?? World Food Tender? A wreck from an international market? Sudden demand to replace perogies with chickpeas?? New crop has a bit of chatter, as well as rotation concerns, which could mean more chickpea acres than initially anticipated. Seed will be in demand so if you want another opportunity or are looking to get a leg up, send your sample off for grading tomorrow morning and know what is in the bin. New crop values are a shot in the dark but rumblings from $0.30-$0.35/lb are being heard.

Mustard markets are still wildly strong with spot product showing bids above a buck on Oriental, Brown and Yellow and in some cases the bids are closer to a buck and a half. That said, tradeable levels are still above current bids so if you’re looking to sell what is in the bin let us know what the number is you’re looking for and we will post up a firm target. New crop contracts are all above 70 cents now as the last week has perked up a little bit on oriental to catch up a little to brown and yellow. New crop mustard contracts of course include an act of God & are picked up on farm. To top it off, we have buyers showing interest in movement terms suited to your needs. If you need seed we have options on certified seed, treated or untreated, at delivered to your yard prices.

For the first time in a while, this week brought a drop in canola futures. March futures are at $1010/MT, which is down from the $1026/MT we were seeing last week. Most of the losses have come on Wednesday with only slight drops on Monday and Tuesday. Some profit taking as well as uncertainty leading up to today’s USDA report have caused some of the declines. The USDA report should give indication to how yields are expected to be affected by dryness and heat in South America. Strength in energy markets could keep prices positive moving forward as well. Looking out to new crop, November futures have stayed sideways from this time last week and are trading at $790/MT. This has translated to some local bids over $18 and it’s worth taking a look at these options while prices are high.

The top focus for soybean markets is today’s WASDE report and South American forecasted production. US soybean production was adjusted up slightly, but the bigger story is reduced production out of South America. Early harvest reports out of the Northern Brazilian state of Mato Grosso are positive, however the Southern states are where the concern lies. More will be known as harvest progress continues to move south. As for today, those concerns have the soybean market rallying with local bids of $16.25/bu FOB farm. Domestic feed values continue to support the Faba bean market. Feed fabas continue to trade near $13.00/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality is trading around $15.00/bu FOB farm. Dry bean market news is focused on Mexico and Argentina. Mexican bean crops appear to have produced above average volumes as local bids have been slipping as of late.

The oat market is enjoying strength due to a 30% decrease in available supply relative to the previous 5 years. A somewhat return to normal demand pattern is also assisting in stoking the fire. Old crop milling quality oats are trading around $10/bu FOB farm and feed quality oats are around $7/bu FOB farm, quality dependent. New crop milling oat contracts around $6.00/bu FOB, with a roll over option to the following year on tonnage or quality shortages, can likely still be had. New crop planting intentions are anticipated to be up as oat production economics pencil well.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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