• AG BROKERS WITH AN EDGE
Submit Your Grain Offer

Grain News

Rayglen Market Comments – October 3, 2018

The pea market has not seen much change over the last couple of weeks. As mentioned, India has extended its import restriction on peas until the end of the year, but this didn’t seem to effect pricing all that much. Yellow peas are hitting $6.00/bu FOB in most areas with the option for $6.50 FOB based on the dry matter protein grading 24% +. Green peas are still trading at $8.50 delivered, which is resulting in $8 FOB in most areas. Maple are seeing bids at $10.50/bu picked up, while Dunn peas trade at $7/bu. Although this marketing year for peas has been quiet, especially for yellows, there is still next year to plan for. We will have a supply of green pea seed for those that are looking to change into something new.

In Saskatchewan, an estimated 68% of the crop is harvested as of September 24. Alberta on the other hand, is estimated to be 33% complete as of September 25, down considerably compared to last year when 62% of the crop was off at that same time. That being said, there is bound to be an abundance of feed available and barley is seeing the pressure. Feed spec barley is now $4.00 – $4.25/bu FOB the farm in most areas. The difference is where the freight advantages are (usually the further west you go). As for the malt market, please call your merchant for the most up to date pricing. We do have small programs on the table around the $5/bu mark FOB farm.

Flax markets are holding steady. The StatsCan model came up slightly from August, but supplies will be the lowest since 2012/2013. As of September 24, flax harvest was only 28% complete. If the weather conditions don’t improve, this could cause Canadian supplies to tighten up further. Market prices will likely remain positive for flax even with the availability of the Black Sea region, China and possibly the US crop. The Kazakh flax crop is also seeing some weather issues and analysts report that the entire crop is projected to be 570-580,000 tonnes. Only about 380,000 tonnes are expected to get harvested between now and November, the rest will stay in the fields over the winter until after the snow melts. We are still seeing up to $13.00/bu FOB on milling quality flax for movement after the new year, while yellow flax bids are getting some traction at $13.50/bu picked up in select areas. If you need to move some product before the new year, we have opportunities. While the outlook for flax prices indicate they will edge higher, harvest progress will determine how much upside potential there is. The lull in exports is keeping the market fairly flat for now.

Canary seed markets remain firm this week as buyers still indicate 21-22c/lb FOB farm in most locations. With slow harvest progress, we suspect there is still a good amount of canary to be taken off. This paired with a decrease in acres, is likely providing the most support. For those close enough, we do have a few buyers bidding 23c delivered. Call with bushel amount and location to see if a delivered plant bid is the right option for you; And as always, when markets are firm, and buyers are searching for product, target offers are a great way to try and squeeze that little bit extra out – as long as they are reasonable of course!

Mustard pricing this week is relatively the same as last week, although, we are starting to notice buyers are not excited about Cutlass oriental mustard, with Vulcan and Forge varieties being more sought after. If you are growing oriental mustard again next year and would like to switch up your seed, we do have Vulcan and a limited amount of Forge available. If you are interested in growing brown or yellow variety, we have those options as well. Talk with your merchant on pricing and other details if you are interested. Current market values for mustard are: Oriental, Cutlass- 25c/lb FOB farm, Vulcan and Forge varieties – 27c/lb FOB farm. Yellow mustard, all varieties – 34c/lb, and brown all varieties – 31c/lb FOB farm. All bids are basis #1 quality. Also make sure you are sending contracted samples for grading!

Soybeans have seen a rally the last couple of days with prices going up 8-9 cents. This rally seems to be coming from optimism in global trade that the U.S. and China will get a deal hammered out shortly now that the Canada, U.S. and Mexico trade agreement is in place. Global markets also feel that they may need to top inventories before the Brazil’s new crop is available to the trade. Soybeans will likely continue to be unstable as the market seems to be based on a lot of what ifs at this time. Local prices seem to be around the $10.50/bu mark depending on your location in the province. In the Faba bean market, buyers seem to be have a big interest in buying snowbirds, other varieties aren’t seeing as much interest at this point, but are still in demand.  Buyers this year really want to see samples before bidding on product so get those in ASAP and we will show the buyers. Price seems to range from$7.75-$9.25/bu depending on quality, size and variety.

The lentil market remains void of good news. Bids have softened some this week as a bit of product hit the market and covered some needs overseas. Tariffs and bans on pulses to India closes, or at least heavily restricts, the world’s biggest pulse market for the time being, so the market sluggishness looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Current bids are around 17 cents for #2 large greens picked up in the yard. On #1 quality small greens bids have been floating around 17 cents delivered to plant in most cases. If you are looking for a price on #2 red lentils we still have some bids at 15 cents delivered to plant, but we can provide some FOB farm pricing as well. For anyone who ended up with low grade lentils, we do have a couple buyers looking for some product right now.

Oat prices remain steady as expectations of a slightly smaller crop than usual has given the market a bit of strength. We are still seeing possibilities of as high as $3/bu picked up on the farm in areas of south east Saskatchewan for good quality milling oats. If you aren’t in the south east be sure to give us a call for a bid on your farm. On the feed side of the market, bids are showing up at $2.40-$2.50/bu picked up in the yard depending on your location. This bid is based on higher quality, heavy and dry feed oats. As always, give your merchant a call to discuss bids or to put out a target price to get your oats moving.

Not much good news coming out of the feed wheat market as undesirable weather has continued across much of the province, affecting many acres of wheat still out in the field. Expectations that these unharvested acres are headed for the feed market go up everyday. Bids for heavy and dry feed wheat are down to $5-$5.25/bu FOB farm depending on location, with prices being best on the west half of Saskatchewan. Bids for #1 hard red spring wheat with 13.5% protein continue to be at $7/bu del plant with slight premiums for a later movement period as well as higher protein levels.

Canola futures have staged a slow climb out of the basement ever since September 18, which continued in today’s trade. That being said, technically canola has entered overbought territory and may correct slightly. However, delayed harvest progress continues to support the canola market. The four-lettered word on many people’s minds is “SNOW” and how it is or remains a distinct possibility for some regions. Our dollar has weakened recently but had shown strength following news of a new USMCA trade deal between Canada, U.S. and Mexico. Local bids do range based on freight location, but $10.50/bu picked up is generally available.

Chickpea markets continue to creep along this week with steady sellers and stagnant bids. News of India declaring a continued restriction on all pulse and legume crops through to 2019 as well as, indicating bigger crops for the coming Rabi season, it feels like our new reality is settling in. With bids in local Indian markets often below the MSP it has not discouraged the seeding intentions. Short of a wide spread weather issue resulting in a wreck for the Indian market there is little expectation of any change to the current situation for the next 12 months. November is the month to watch and wait for real information on crop sown averages from India and with that there will be a clear indicator of the direction of the Canadian market. Current bids for Orion/Leader chickpeas between 21-22c/lb FOB with smaller sizes coming in 2-3c/lb less. Desi chickpeas seem to be a hot topic with buyers calling in looking for supply and growers looking for seed. Get germ and disease testing done so we can find homes for it or let us help you get the most out of the market for your production. Indicated price for Desis #2 or better at 28c/lb FOB farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 26, 2018

The mustard market is a little up and down this week. Brown prices have bled off some with bids down to 31 cents in most areas picked up in the yard. Movement timelines are still pretty prompt with most brown buyers today if you are looking to free up some bin space. Yellow markets are hit or miss this week with some buyers peeling off the 35 cents they had been quoting while others perk up to the number to try and secure a load here or there. Firm targets are effective if you have that certain number in mind you are trying to get. Oriental continues to be the laggard of the mustard community with a few bids still loitering around 27 cents at the yard but movement is not quick in most cases and buyers are variety specific with a lot of this business.

 

Canary seed production for 2018/2019 will be down from last year but it will also be the lowest since the 2012/2013 marketing year. Harvest is still underway and with this recent weather we’ve been experiencing, canary seed harvest is behind compared to last year. Looking to the US, they are also likely to see a decrease in yields (bringing yields to below average in comparison to other years) in Colorado and Nebraska, as per a stat report. For bids this week, we are seeing 22 cents picked up trading in areas. However, with this decrease in production there may be some upside potential on bids down the road.

 

Barley production has not had any reprieve this week with the wet weather. The conditions are hammering away at quality and the talk around the water cooler is that the feed market will be set up to take a dive in the coming weeks, hopefully we have seen the worst of it with recent losses. It should take about 2-3 weeks of consistent dry weather for the lump sum of the harvest to complete but it sounds like the weather has already done its worst. Values unchanged at $4-4.40/bu FOB farm out of Saskatchewan and a potential for a bit more out for producers in Alberta. Call the office if you are looking for malt values.

 

Cool and wet weather continue to stall flax harvest which also continues to effect quality. To state the obvious; with Black Sea harvest delays and Canadian acres down from last year coupled with global weather conditions, the likelihood of higher prices in the coming months is not unheard of. If wait and see is in the cards for you, it may pay off. Another alternative if movement is more urgent is to offer your production out and see if the market reacts before the bids do. Flax prices are holding steady again this week. Brown Flax at $12.50-$12.75/bu FOB farm with O/N/D movement and Yellow Flax at $13-$13.25/bu FOB farm depending on location.

 

Faba bean prices are holding strong this week with prices indicating $8.00-$8.50/bu picked up depending on the variety and location. With slower harvest progress over the last few weeks due to wet weather, there could be a chance that quality will be effected. We do have interest in all grades of fabas, so make sure you send your samples into Rayglen to discuss options. Estimates of the U.K. faba bean production are indicating a smaller crop compared to last year, almost 40% less. There are also some reports of insect damage to the already smaller crop. Australian faba crop is also estimating the smallest production since 2009/2010. Soybean prices are relatively sideways in the $10.00/bu picked up range. Traders saw soybean futures pop up for a brief time when there was talk of China wanting to buy more. However, this quickly retreated once US bean projections raised its ending stock to a record 900 million bushels. Until there is a resolution to the US / China trade war, the soybean market will continue to be sensitive.

 

Canola futures have rallied lately from 6 month lows due to harvest delays across Western Canada. A significant portion of the canola acres are in the northern cropping areas where harvest progress has been meagre for the last 2 weeks. Commercial stocks continue to build as canola farmer deliveries have been brisk whereas export pace has been well below average. There is some indication that Australia might import Canadian canola due to extreme drought on their east coast. Domestic crush margins have been compressed but are showing improvement as the veg oil complex has shown recent strength. Local picked up bids are in the range of $10.50/bu.

 

Peas markets remain stable with no real change over the last seven days for spot price. Further out pricing on yellow peas is a little stronger with a 25 cent a bushel increase for Jan-Mar movement in certain areas. China is the main driver in the market at this point as we wait on India to come back to the table, markets will likely remain stable. One situation that may change the market a little is with the recent weather problems what percentage of peas remaining out in the field across western Canada.  The remaining peas in the field will likely see some grade deterioration and possible yield loss so this may increase the price on No. 2 grade product.  If you are looking to upgrade your seed supply this may be a year to look at doing it with prices lower than in the past couple years.

 

The lentil market seems to be the same as last week. With rumours about India adding additional tariffs on reds or out right banning them we have yet to see our 16c/lb delivered #2 red bid come back. Reds today are sitting around 15.5c/lb in certain areas but this is not very firm ground. Large greens are steady at 18-19c/lb delivered to plant on a good #2, and small greens are around 17-18c/lb delivered on a nice looking #1 with low dockage. With average yields for 2018, we don’t see prices jumping anytime time soon, but if you have a price in mind talk with your merchant on posting an offer.

 

With Manitoba and Saskatchewan lowering their oat acres by approximately 9% from the 10 year average, the amount of oats on farm this year is expected to be lower than the 5 year average. Prices have been showing strength as of late. Possibilities exist in South East Saskatchewan for milling oats at $2.90-$3.00/bu picked up in your yard. Bids fade the farther north and west you go but we still have options in other areas. Feed oats are trading between $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up in your yard depending on location.

 

The feed wheat market has continued to fall this week as bids have come down to the $5- 5.50/bu range picked up on farm. Bids are best on the west side of the province. Poor weather in the north half of the province is the main cause of the price drop as there is a lot of grain left in the fields that seems destined for the feed market more and more everyday. Buyers appear to be filling up in the near term but there may still be some quicker shipping opportunities available. If you do have some #1 hard red spring on the farm, bids are around $7/bu delivered to plant for an October movement based on a 13.5% protein. Slight premiums exist if your protein is higher so give your merchant a call for more details.

 

Latest reports from Statistics Canada predict chickpea production will reach 264,000 MT up from 102,000 MT last year. Taking into consideration the added supply to export and domestic use the carry over for the year is expected to be 75,000 MT versus 1,000MT from last year. Overseas, India is planning on a production record of all pulses for the 2018-19 crop year with kabuli chickpeas being grown for export and seeing strong demand. These reports indicate Indian producers may look to grow this over the traditional Desi type they generally grow. It is rumored the Indian government will increase the minimum support price for Desi which hopefully will keep those acres as Desi going forward. The markets were little changed despite all of these reports which leads some to wonder if this is the market bottom. Right now prices seem to be hovering at about 23 cents/lb FOB on an average of sizes, with 10% 7mm sizing allowable. Call the office for details and location, as all buyers may have slightly different demands for what they buy and at what level.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 19, 2018

According to Statscan, oat domestic use has risen by 4% due to higher feed potential. Also, the exports, primarily to US and Mexico have risen by 5%, which is the highest it has been in 9 years. Manitoba and Saskatchewan have lowered their oat input by about 9% compared to the 10-year average. The oat supply for the 2018 crop year is expected to be a smaller than the 2017 and the 5-year average. The US is the largest importer of Canadian oats, accounting for 91% of export. Prices have been improving a bit, sitting around $2.50-$2.90/bu FOB farm.  The further you are in the southeast part of the province, the better the price is. On feed quality, bids sit between $2.00 to $2.25/bu picked up on farm.

Chickpea markets remain relatively unchanged from last week. Bids still hover around 23c/lb FOB farm for #2 quality with some sizing qualifications in place – i.e. buyers are looking for minimum 50% 9mm and maximum 10% 7mm product. For more clarification on these programs and a firm bid FOB your yard, call the office or your merchant. Other purchasers are looking for producers who wish to size their own product, with premiums being offered for true 9mm and higher sizes. These bid indications are coming in around 25-26c/lb FOB farm. Overall, chickpea markets are comfortable; meaning we do not expect to see much for price swings in the desired direction this marketing year. It is expected that heavy farmer selling could put pressure on the market, but for now shipments off farm remain stable and prices are holding steady. Growers should take advantage of any small opportunities that may arise as long term upward trends are not likely.

As it has been mentioned, canary seed production is going to be down this year. On paper, supplies are going to be tight in this 2018/2019 marketing year, due to decreased acres. We are getting a sense of that now, as there was not a lot of seasonal weakness being show in bids. Currently, we are seeing prices at 22.5c/lb delivered on canary seed. If that isn’t what you are looking for today, an offer would be a good opportunity to try and push the market. Exports have been below average, but as it stands, canary seed does have some upside potential in current market conditions.

Mustard markets are fairly similar to last week with the exception of yellow varieties, which have seen a slight increase of 1 cent, taking us back up to 35c/lb for #1 quality FOB the farm. Brown is still stagnant with 32c/lb obtainable and oriental remains at 28c/lb on Vulcan or Forge variety. If you have Cutlass variety talk with your merchant on your options. Yields were definitely not as high as some hoped for, with a lack of moisture being the main factor. This has slowed farmer selling and we suspect will continue too. Also, reminder to make sure you are sending in your harvest samples to either us or the buyer you have a contract with to find out your grade and get your name on the pickup list.

Reports on flax harvest in Saskatchewan as of September 10, showed only 14% complete, due to weather delays. Analysts report this is still ahead of average and the delays will not have an impact on quality yet. Flax prices are holding steady again this week at $12.50/bu picked up in select areas for decent movement. There is also potential for higher prices after the new year. Yellow flax pricing is also slowly creeping up with indications of $13.25/bu FOB or better attainable. Production forecast for the Black Sea region is up 14% according to sources. This would mean more supply for EU and Chinese exports. There is also harvest delays in the Black Sea region due to excessive rainfall, but again are not sever enough to ensure problems with the crop. Canadian flax prices are likely to remain steady throughout harvest.

Soybean futures bounced back 10 cents today after losing roughly the same amount yesterday. Not surprisingly, China and the US hold different opinions on the reliance China will have on US soybeans. China claims to have a strategy to reduce its hog sectors import reliance on US soybeans; down as much as 27 million tonnes. Stats Canada released production data today for the nations soybean crop. Production is forecasted to be down 200,000 MT to 7.5 MMT largely predicated on 1-million-acre planting reduction. US soybean harvest is just getting rolling and is roughly 6-10% complete. Expectations remain set on a big crop. Local soybean bids are in the $10.20/bu FOB farm range. Faba bean demand is still going strong and driven by heavy drought conditions in Australia. Faba export market is largely focused on the large zero tannin varieties, but interest in other varieties has surfaced as well. Local bids are in the $8.50/bu FOB farm range. Dry edible bean demand remains strong with the Canadian harvest right around the corner. There is greater demand for white beans due to lower expected production, however general demand for all dry edible beans is still decent. Call your Rayglen merchant for prices 1-800-729-4536.

The pea market has continued in the same trading range this week with no news coming out of India to stir the pot. Yellow peas are still trading around $6-$6.25/bu with on farm pick up. We still have a premium market for peas that make a dry matter protein spec, so if you haven’t already, be sure to get your sample into the office so we can get them tested for you. The green pea market has been showing signs of strength as of late with bids as high as $8.50/bu delivered to plant. With ending stocks from last year being tight, this strength isn’t a huge surprise. If you have any maple peas in the bin we are still seeing bids as high as $10.50/bu picked up in the yard. Pricing on maples has been dropping off here so may not be a terrible idea to price them out sooner than later. As always, if you have a price in mind give us a call to put out a firm target to our buyers.

The canola market is facing a multitude of problems and pressures, which is causing the commodity to lose traction in the market place; Soy and corn yield predictions continue to climb in the U.S., Trump and China continue to fight over trade tariffs and an increase in estimated Canadian production are all factors. Markets seemed to recover a little today as soybeans futures came back due to short covering. The short-term outlook shows continued downward pressure due to the above-mentioned topics.  Long term may show some upside based on another year of average yield, which is 40 bus/acre. Currently, we are just over the five-year production average of 19, 500,000 MT, estimated at 20,998,800 MT and projected carry out is roughly 1 million MT. This data by itself would suggest the price remains flat, but if China does need to replace soybeans due to American trade tensions, Canadian Canola is the next best thing, so this could boost canola prices.

It is reported that over 50% of the barley harvest is complete, with average quality and average yields. The remainder of the crop left in the field will likely not make malt due to the excess moisture. Because of the earlier dry conditions, DON levels have come in relatively low for initial samples, which is a bit of a bright lite in the storm. Barley bids remain steady this week as feed lots continue to look at subbing US corn. Bids on the farm are $4.10-4.50, which is freight sensitive with potential for a bit more out for producers in Alberta. If these values are not to your liking, consider writing an offer to the market. If you have malt, call your merchant to discuss options.

The lentil market continues the sideways action we have come to know in the past few weeks. The biggest piece of news that hit the market was talk of additional tariffs coming from India early in the week, but thus far not much has come to fruition on those. Reds prices were slightly off to start the week, with chatter from India, and bids seem to be around 15.5c/lb delivered to plant for a nice #2 quality. The large green market maintains bids at 17-18 cents possible on #2 quality at the yard and small greens are down to 16c/lb in many cases on a #1 quality. If you’re interested in moving lentils call the office as we are having minor successes with our offer system on reasonable targets in recent weeks.

Feed wheat continues slightly softer again this week. Harvest has been delayed by weather and quality concerns are creeping into the equation. Its getting very difficult to get $6/bu FOB farm unless in the southwest corner this week. Also, movement seems to be pushing further out, indicating buyers are meeting their needs for the immediate term. This shifts the focus to further out movement and less aggressive bidding. This week, FOB bids around $5.70 to $5.80/bu are more common. Make sure you are talking to your merchant about offers, as this may a way to get a few more pennies per bushel in your pocket.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments September 12, 2018

The pea market may be through the seasonal low as there was some slight price recovery this week. Yellow peas are seeing bids at $6-6.25/bu picked up depending on location. Green peas are trading at $8.50/bu delivered. There doesn’t seem to be any change coming from the Indian government as their borders remain closed to foreign peas. Green peas are seeing other buyers coming to the table though, which is showing some upside potential that the yellows may not have. We can hope that later in the marketing year, India comes back to the table, but we should not bank on it. We also have bids on maple peas sitting around $10.50/bu picked up. If pricing isn’t what you are looking for today – trying out a target is a good option for this time of the year.  

Canary seed has been picking up a tiny bit of momentum in the last little while. Farmers have been consistently selling at 21.5-22 c/lb FOB the farm this week.  The StatsCan report estimates yields to be around 26 bu/acre, down from the 5-year average of 28 bu/acre. It has been months now that the canary seed export market is well below the average for the time of year. Supply this year will definitely be tighter than previous years and time will tell how that effects market pricing. One thing that can be said is, we have a chance of prices bouncing higher as producer’s inventories grow smaller – although not a guarantee.

Soybean production in the US is forecasted to increase to 4.69 million bushels, which is greater than the August forecast, but within the upper range of the pre-report estimates. Seeing as this wasn’t entirely outside the range of expectations, Chicago soybean futures are essentially holding flat today. There is some additional weight for the market to bear, as China has recently hacked soybean import forecasts by approximately 10% (10 MMT) in response to continued trade tensions with the US. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.30/bu picked on farm. Faba bean market continues to show export support predicated on reduced exports from drought stricken Aussie sources. Primary demand is for large zero tannin varieties; however, opportunities exist for high tannin varieties as well. Local bids are in the range of $8.50/bu picked up on farm location dependent. Dry edible bean market is still fairly steady with solid demand for certain varieties. US harvest is roughly 30% complete, whereas the Canadian harvest is yet to show any measurable progress just yet. Contact our office for dry bean marketing opportunities 1-800-729-4536.

The Canadian Grain Commission released their estimated ending stocks with no real surprises, so markets remain unchanged. Markets have been flat since the start of the new crop year and look like they will remain that way for some time.  Estimates show acres for all lentils only decreased by 636,900 acres and with a yield drop of 12/lbs per acre, production will only shrink by approximately 400,000 MT. these lower numbers sound like good news, but the killer is the carry in stock of over 500,000 MT compared to 2017 and 800,000MT over 2016.  The last time we were this close to this amount of carry in was 2014. Estimated ending stock for this year is 720,000 MT, 200,000 MT above the five-year average.  Estimated exports look like they will be at least 200,000 MT below the five-year average. These numbers show that price will likely remain flat until export markets decide to take more product.  The U.S.D.A also released information this morning showing the United States will have their second highest supply of green lentils on record.  This too will add to pricing struggles for green lentils.  At this point there will not be a quick recovery to lentils, but hopefully this is the bottom and price will recover slowly with stronger numbers by next summer. For strong numbers to return we will need to see consecutive reductions in acres and production next year.

A mixed bag of events in the chickpea markets as harvest progresses in the US and Canada. Samples are showing there could be a problem with smaller sizes which could put pressure on 9/10mm prices. The US market is reporting large production estimates of 447,000 MT in the bin so far compared to 250,000 from last year and 144,000 MT on a 5-year average. In addition, Australia output will drop significantly from 3.04 MMT to 1.97MMT. Taking everything into consideration, the market is stagnant to weakening. Get a handle on your sizes to know your market. Bids this week as follows; #2 Orion/Leaders drop to 22-23c/lb FOB for 8/9mm and 19c/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Could be an opportunity for cargo with only 9/10mm at a 2-3 cent premium.  Feed values somewhere between 10-11c/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

Feed wheat softens a bit this week. We were seeing aggressive buying with trades going out at $6/bu FOB farm in certain areas, but that seems to have faded. It bought a lot of product and now buyers are bought up for the nearby months. This shifts the focus to further out movement and less aggressive bidding. Corn is putting also pressure on the market which in turn pressures wheat. This week, prices are around $5.80/bu FOB farm in certain areas. Make sure you are talking to your merchant about offers. With this market so volatile you may catch a spike in pricing.

Oats have held steady this week with very little impactful news coming out as producers continue to pull off the 2018 crop. On the milling side of the market, prices continue to trade in the $2.50-$2.90/bu price range picked up in your yard for movement a few months out. Top prices for milling oats are for far south east Saskatchewan locations and freight knocks the bids down the further north west you go. For heavy and dry feed oats, indications remain around $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up in the yard for movement in the next couple of months. As always, get in touch with your merchant or call the office to get a bid picked up in your yard.

Flax prices have seen some action this week, with bids up to $12.75/bu FOB taking place on #1 quality. We have since seen, pricing back off.  We have seen some offers on milling quality trade at $13.00/bu picked up for movement after the new year. Call your Rayglen merchant so you can also capture these markets with your offers. Some analysts write that 25% of new crop flax should be sold. As noted before, even with the smaller carryover, the upside is likely to be restrained by Russian/Kazakhstan supply.  The prices here in the prairies are already perceived as high according to overseas markets. Yellow flax markets are a little more sideways with prices in the $13.00/bu range picked up in the yard being indicated.

Mustard has remained the same this week – no changes up or down basically; some overages to production contracts that are in the bin are being booked. We are certainly range bound until something gives. Prices stay firm on brown at 30-32c/lb, yellow at 33-34c/lb and oriental forge in the 28c/lb range, all depending on variety and movement. All these bids are FOB farm on a #1 quality. Also remember if you have production contract, make sure your sending your pre-ship sample off to buyers so they can get them graded. Call your merchant if you need an address for shipping that sample, as we would like to get these in as quickly as possible.

Canola markets down slightly today after the Canadian dollar posted some gains. Other pressuring factors were a marginally weaker soy oil market. Futures lost roughly $2/MT across the board today with November finishing at $491.70/MT and January just under $500/MT. Basis levels remain unchanged from last week, which pegs delivered to plant bids at roughly $10.75/bu. FOB farm bids are available so please call your merchant with location and quantity.  For up to date information on bids, please ask your merchant about our text/email alert system.

The malting barley market has a few bids on the east side of Sask, with some buyers looking at $5.25/bu picked up at the yard on a full crop year program, i.e. out to July. Talk of corn coming from the US has put a damper on the feed market currently in the last week or so, but it has not had a huge effect on the prices so far. As stated, the feed market is still holding up alright with bids around $4.50/bu range in many areas of the province. Buyers are interested in seeing firm targets if today’s price doesn’t hit the spot of what you’re looking for as well.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 5, 2018

The canary seed market has picked up a bit of steam with buyers showing prices around 22.5 c/lb delivered.  StatsCan has the acres pegged at 212,100. If this is correct, there will be a shortage in production if the yields remain similar to last year – around 30 bushels per acre. The annual usage of canary seed is around 165,000 MT. If this current data holds true, there will only be 125,800 MT available from this year’s crop. This is not taking into consideration the seemingly always underestimated stored product but could be enough influence to see a price climb. As of last week, there was only 12% of canary seed harvested and yields estimated to be around 22 bushels per acre.

The feed wheat market is a little calmer this week after it had run up to $6.00/bu FOB farm in many areas of the province. Feedlot Alley in Lethbridge bids slipped some and that has slowed the market down this week. For the most part bids seem to be closer to $5.60- $5.70 a bushel picked up at the yard. If you’d like to try and push the market for a little higher number, we are taking and showing firm targets to buyers, which has had some success. Milling wheat bids have firmed up back over $7.00/bu delivered to elevator for CWRS with 13.5 plus protein. Durum bids are hovering in the $6.50 to maybe $6.70 range for a #1 quality around the province as we speak.

The pea market is still experiencing some seasonal weakness as harvest is racing ahead. Green peas saw some strength last week with offers trading at $8-8.25/bu picked up. This week, bids have pulled back slightly, but $8/bu picked up might still be possible in some areas. Yellow peas are seeing bids at $6/bu picked up working in the south east and south central. We also have a $6.50/bu delivered plant bid for the North East. The protein market for yellow peas is still going strong – with bids at $6.50 FOB on dry matter protein levels testing 24%. India is still drawing a lot of attention on whether they will remove any trading restrictions or tariffs, however we aren’t as optimistic anymore.

Flax prices haven’t seen many changes over the last several months and this week is no different.  #1 flax is $12.75/bu delivered to plant while milling quality flax is indicating similar values picked up in the yard for further out movement. The StatsCan report from last week has trimmed the seeded area estimate, but estimated yield is up. These combined should not change the outlook for a tight supply in 2018/19. Since 2011, the Black Sea region has emerged as a major competitor, which has taken out any volatile swings in flax pricing caused from Canadian supply or the lack there of. So, while Canadian flax prices are not likely to see extreme highs, there should be some room for some upside price potential and getting offers to your Rayglen merchant is a good start to keep on top of this market.

Feed barley has softened a bit this week. Harvest pressure has kicked in and buyers are starting to get bought up for quick movement. September looks to be almost filled, so if you are looking to get rid of some product really quick, call your merchant to get that contracted. Prices are still strong for October- December movement with bids around $4.20-4.70/bu FOB farm depending on freight. Remember offers are a great way to move grain especially in a market where things seem to be all over week to week, so talk with your merchant about posting one.

Chickpea markets remain relatively unchanged over the last 7 days. The start to harvest has seemed to slow as growers are waiting for either desiccants to take hold or crops to be ready au natural. Progress is about 15-20% complete. The demand for green and low quality has peaked interest of some of our buyers. Perhaps with reports of average quality there could be a concern in supply for the pet food market, so they may be trying to mitigate any potential shortage in the nearby? Just a thought. A little pop in bids this week, #2 Orion/Leaders at 24c/lb FOB for 9/10mm and 20c/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Feed values somewhere between 10-11c/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

Lentil markets remain quite again this week. Oversea markets remain disinterested in buying Canadian product. Rumblings out of India, is that the trade doesn’t want to pay minimum support price on Indian grown pulses as they are starting to see cheaper prices over seas. Due to India trade rules the local buyer must pay MSP or face criminal charges. Does this mean prices go up? Likely not, it just means that they are seeing cheap product come to market and would rather buy at those levels. This news is nothing more than information but, could be something to keep an eye on. As we are still seeing more supply than demand, hence the lower prices being shown to the market. Local pricing remains the same as last week. Reds are trading at 16c delivered, Large green lentils #1 21c, X2 20c, #2 18c FOB farm, small greens not much happening – call for pricing.

Soybean production in Canada is poised to retreat 9% to 7.0 million tonnes according to the most recent Stats Can report. Soybean futures have tailed off based on forecasts of a large US harvest and listless demand. Local bids of $10.50/bu picked up are currently attainable. Faba bean export demand is building largely due to drought conditions in Australia. Bids for #2 large seeded zero tannin fabas is running as high as $8.75/bu delivered. Dry field bean prices remain buoyant with buyers looking for most varieties. Call the office for more info.

Mustard remains range bound this week as harvest continues. Yields continue to be reported average at best, as the dry weather this summer continues to take its toll on yields this year. Prices are still holding though, so far, with brown at 30 to 32c/lb, yellow at 33 to 34c/lb and oriental forge in the 28c/lb range, all depending on variety and movement. All of these bids are FOB farm on a #1 quality. Also remember if you have production contract, make sure your sending your pre-ship sample off to buyers so they can get them graded. Call your merchant if you need an address for shipping that sample.

No new news to report from the oats market this week and values hold steady on both milling and feed. Some concerns have come from low bushel weights being reported in some of the drier areas, but overall, the crop has been coming off in good shape. Milling oat prices are trading in the $2.50-$2.75/bu picked up in the yard range with movement being pushed out quite a way. Highest values are in the southeast corner and bids tend to get lower the further northwest you go. Heavy and dry feed oats are maintaining bids around that $2.00-$2.20/bu picked up in the yard. That being said, if you have any lower quality oats give us a call and we will try to find a home for them.

Canola markets have perked up a bit since last week, but not as much as some would have thought after StatsCan dropped yield estimates on this year’s crop. Despite the estimated drop, markets remained fairly stable with nearby futures still sitting in the mid $490’s per MT. This suggests there is little concern over the available of product. Backing this news up are unchanged and, in some cases, wider basis levels. For the most part, producers can expect a $20-30/MT under basis when delivering into plant. That pegs bids at roughly $10.65/bu delivered. Keep in mind that we are able to provide freight to the plant as well for those who would prefer an FOB bid. Call for a firm price picked up in your yard today!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – August 29, 2018

The dry bean market is holding strong as weather concerns in both Western Canada and Ontario have expectations leaning towards a much smaller crop than last year, potentially as much as 22%. While seeded acres in the US are in line with average years, there have been some concerns of lower yields and reduced quality, so we will need to keep an eye on their harvest to get a better understanding of what pricing may do. Faba beans in Saskatchewan have the potential to trade at above $7.50 picked up in the yard for any product meeting a #2 quality for the export market. Soybean bids continue to be around the $10.50/bu FOB farm range depending on location. Give us a call for any bean prices out of your area.

Canary prices remain sideways this week at 22 cents/lb delivered to plant. There have not been any yield estimate reports as of Aug 20, but there is likely to be some reduced yields after some extreme heat last month. Argentina canary exports are running behind last year’s pace, which has allowed some movement of Canadian exports into Brazil. The US also hasn’t reported any yield indications, but again, there is a good chance yields will be lower than average.  The US canary crop is grown mainly in Colorado, Nebraska and South Dakota. Prices have not yet responded to the lower yield estimates, once harvest begins there could be potential for an upside swing.

Green lentil bids have been slipping over the last week as harvest is progressing. Large greens are trading at 18 cents picked up on a #2 quality and #1 small greens are trading at 18 cents delivered. Overseas markets were also seeing green lentil prices decline; with Turkey’s currency crisis adding a bit of stress to the current lentil market. On the red lentil side, there seems to be a bit of stability in the market. There has been a slight bump and we have seen bids at 16 cents delivered on a #2 quality. Looking to the US market, lentils are quiet; #1 US richleas are trading at 14 cents US. As harvest is moving along, sending in your samples for grading is key as higher quality green lentils are getting a bit of interest.

Flax has been very quiet coming out of the gates this harvest season. Prices have been soft, trading between $12.00 to $12.50 depending on quality.  Some analysts are saying to be patient, as they think prices will likely rebound early in 2019.  This is partially due to the smaller 2018 crop, but there are other factors that are hurting the Canadian flax market at the present. It looks like the Russian and Kazakhstan brown flax market is going to be large yet again, which will likely take away from demand in Canada as their brown flax usually goes into Europe and China as well. As of last week, it is reported that 16% of all crops have been harvested and 22% have been swathed or ready to straight cut.

Chickpea harvest is about 10-15% complete in Canada and thus far we are hearing mixed reviews depending on the sourcing area. Some areas in SE Sask are reporting slightly above average green count and average yields, while SE Alberta is showing smaller sizes, with yields ranging from below average to average. The buy side of the market has not flinched at these reports in lieu of increased acres. In fact, we are continuing to see markets soften weekly. We are still getting calls about what type of desiccant can be used and for the best marketability of your crop it is best to stay away from glyphosate. Please call the office if you have any further questions on this recommendation. Bids for #2 Orion/Leaders at $0.23/lb FOB for 9/10mm and $0.19-0.15/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Feed values are somewhere between $0.10-$0.11/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

Mustard this week remains steady. With harvest still moving along we are hearing yields are below average due to lack of moisture and extreme temperatures throughout the growing season.  Left Field reports that their yield forecast of 830lb/acre for 2018 is still based on a 10% drop from the 5-year average, which would mean a 184,000MT crop, 52% larger than in 2017. With that being said – prices are still holding with brown at 33c/lb, yellow at 35c/lb, oriental forge variety at 28c/lb, and cutlass variety at 27c/lb FOB farm all on a #1 quality. Also remember if you have production contract, make sure your sending your pre-ship sample off to buyers so they can get them graded.

Wheat (milling) bids have softened due to a rising Canadian dollar and dropping US futures prices. They now hover in the range of $6.80 delivered. An estimated 77% of the US spring wheat crop is in the bin according to the USDA. Easing concerns over Black Sea wheat supplies have also contributed to a softening market. Much of the Canadian Prairie wheat crop remains to be harvested. Early reports indicate lower yields versus last year but a return to a normal protein distribution and grades. Feed wheat bids have been strong recently with $5.80-$6.00 FOB farm being attainable. Durum prices continue to lag with ample North American stocks and lack luster demand, with some areas trading around $6.50/bu.

Breaking news this morning in the pea markets. India has lifted the import ban, but Canadian peas will still face the 50% tariff.  At this point the news is fairly fresh so we will wait to see how this affects the farm gate price. If India is showing interest in buying, we expect some pricing rebound. Other rumors are that this is a short-lived dream and that the courts ordered the bans to be removed. If this is the case, it is likely the Indian government will reinstate the bans on different grounds. Thus far, we’ve seen small spikes in local prices with some buyers moving to $6.75/bu delivered on yellows. If you are trying to get a little more for yellow peas, send us your sample and we get the dry matter protein checked for you to go into a premium market. Buyers are showing interest in green peas around the $8.00 FOB farm mark this afternoon.  As we wait for the dust to settle on India news this might be a great time to be a little bullish on peas and throw out pricing targets.

The canola market continues its sideways run of late, with not much news to report. The November market was at approx. $490/MT today, at the low end of where canola prices have been for the past few months, but still range bound. Common basis levels put canola prices about $10.60/bu delivered to the plant and no big premium in the market for further out movement at this time.  On Friday we will see StatsCan’s first 2018 crop production report of the harvest season, so we wait to see what effect that might have on the market. If this report comes out showing lighter yields, we will see some bullish reaction in the market quite quickly.

Feed barley markets remain stable this week with bids coming across our desks at $4.20 for quick movement and up to $4.75 FOB farm for pushed out winter delivery. Pricing remains strong when compared to a 5-year average and those who have feed barley in the bin, should consider hedging some product at these values. On the other side of the barley world, is the 2-row malt market, which we recently obtained bids for.  For producers willing to sit on their barley, we have a bid of $5.25/bu FOB farm for Oct-July 2019 delivery. If your needing your product out a little sooner, we have limited tonnage available at $5.00/bu FOB farm Oct- Jan 2019. Both programs are variety specific – Copeland or Metcalfe. Call your merchant for further details!

Oats prices remain stable over the past couple of weeks. Early reports from the east side of the province and into Manitoba are showing average yields and decent quality. Some low bushel weights are also being reported due to lack of moisture. Prices range from $2.50 to $2.80 per bushel FOB the farm on the eastern side of Saskatchewan for later movement and pretty decent values. The west side is challenging for good FOB bids. Feed oat prices have ranged from $2.00 to $2.20 per bushel FOB the farm. Call your Rayglen merchant if you are looking to move some product before December.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments -August 22, 2018

The feed wheat market has been considerably stronger this year as the bids coming from feed lot alley have pushed up. Pricing looks much better than projections from a couple months ago, where $5/bu picked up seemed to be a strong bid. Current numbers have pushed up to $6/bu picked up in many areas of Sask, with many buyers willing to entertain firm offers if you have special requests for movement or other issues. Early cereal reports are mostly saying a bit lower than normal on yield, but quality has looked very good in many areas (with some exceptions). The milling wheat market has not saw the same enthusiasm as feed, as milling bids remain in the high $6’s delivered to plant for #1 Western Red Spring. Durum prices are similar to wheat bids and buyers are not overly aggressive at this time.

 

Harvest has just basically begun on the oat side of things with a few early reports of newly harvested product hitting the bin Saskatchewan. This aligns with StatsCan’s report pegging oat harvest to be only about 6% complete by the end of the week. That is based off of historical data and a 5-year average. Prices still have remained flat and are sitting around $2.50 per bushel FOB the farm for a good quality #2CW oat. The feed oat market has not changed much either with some pretty aggressive pricing sitting anywhere from $2.00 to $2.30 per bushel, pending spec.  For the most current up to date prices in your area it is best to call your Rayglen merchant.

 

Lentil sales remain sluggish for another week as prices remain flat. Large green lentils continue to trade at 21¢ for a No.1, 20¢ for an X2 and 19¢ for a No. 2. Small Green Lentils are trading at 18¢ for a No.1 and 16¢ for a No. 2. Red lentils are seeing a wide range of pricing from as low as 14.5¢ FOB farm to as high as 16¢ delivered in the southwest. Some parts of India received heavy rainfall, which may affect some of the Kharif harvest yields, but it has also given those same states enough water to get them through the Rabi growing season as well as next years Kharif season. These heavy rains have affected southern and eastern states, but the west and northern states are still needing moisture.  At this point in time, parts of India are feeling pretty good heading into the Rabi growing season. Red lentils are also begin influenced by large stocks still in India, Canadian supply and the weak Turkey dollar. Green lentils are mostly begin effected by buyers sitting on the sidelines until the markets start showing interest. This to, will remain flat.

 

Mustard has maintained its value this week as harvest pushes forward in most areas where mustard is grown. Yield reports are varied as some areas got better rains than others, but one thing is developing for sure, yields are very modest this year on all types of mustard. As the crop starts to come off, we do have quick movement on some mustards, so talk with your merchant about possible options. New crop contracts have ended so spot prices take center stage now during this time of year. Yellow mustard this week is sitting around 34 to 35 cents per pound, brown at 33 to 34, and oriental at 28 cents FOB farm all on a #1 quality. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you are looking for so, make sure you are talking to your merchant on those as well. Also, a reminder as crop starts to come off – get your pre-shipping sample off to the buyer if you have a contract made, so grade can be determined.

 

Sideways pricing for the flax markets again this week, with buyers indicating $12.00-$12.50/bu picked up depending on quality. As of Aug 13, there has not been any reports on Saskatchewan flax harvest. 2018/19 flax inventory are predicting to be below last year’s levels.  Stocks in Vancouver have dropped in the last couple of weeks as shipments of flax have left for China. There have been some strong exports from the Black Sea region and volumes are running ahead of last year. Russian exports have been heading to western Europe, Turkey, China and Vietnam. Key markets have seen the flax prices be quiet variable. European prices have showed some strength, while Ukraine prices have declined since early 2018. US crushers have lowered their bids in anticipation for new crop, while Saskatchewan bids have seen sideways prices over the past several months. Once you get your crop off, reminder to send in a sample to see how it grades so we know which market is best suitable.

 

Lack of moisture this year is really going to put a toll on bean crops. Hot and dry conditions are causing early maturity and pods not to fill properly in Western Canada. With that being said, last year was far worse and high yields were still achieved, so that goes to show you don’t know what is out there till you are combining. Fababeans are trading for around $7.50 FOB farm with potential to get a bit higher if you show the buyer an offer and a large lot. Soybeans have been holding their own as well, with buyers indicating $10.50/bu range, give or take pending freight costs. Bean prices will stay strong due to reduced acres and production in Canada and the US.

 

Feed barley this week is still very strong. With the hot dry growing season, key growing areas are not pulling off yields they need to keep their feedlots full, so they are looking to buy a lot more than last year. Growers will realize a price increase as you move into the fall and winter months with bids around $4.50/bu FOB farm and higher depending on freight. Make sure you are getting your weight, and moisture checked on your barley as those are the two requirements for the feed market. Offers are a great way to move grain in a competitive market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.

 

According to a StatCan report, chickpea yields have been slightly trimmed back due to the recent heat that the crops have experienced just before harvest. However, even with yields being cut back there was still a large amount of chickpea acres that hit the grown in the 2018 growing season; around 145% larger than last year. Finding a home for all these chickpeas may be a concern, because other origins put in a larger amount of chickpeas this year too. North America is consuming more, but the stocks are still going to remain heavy for the 2018/2019 marketing season, which may keep prices at bay for Kabulis. For growers that have desis, there seems to be some upside as there was a sharp drop in the Australian crop.

The pea market hasn’t seen much change in the past weeks as prices seem to trend lower at mid-harvest. Yellow bids are sitting at $6.00/bu delivered with $6.00/bu picked up working in the odd area. Green peas are still sitting at $8.00/bu delivered. As of right now, China is our main buyer of peas with India still on hold, which is holding prices back. Until the Indian government opens pea imports back up we may not see much strength in these prices. We have seen some opportunities for feed peas to be moving at the same values as #2 quality and buyers have been open to offers. Therefore, if you have a target price in mind trying an offer might be the best option.

Canary seed prices continue their sideways trend this week as prices have not moved an inch in either direction. Bids are still being based on 21- 22 cents/lb FOB in a few locations around the province. We have still yet to discover how yields are coming in this crop year, but expectations are that stocks will end up tighter. With that information, there is a possibility of seeing strength in canary seed prices as we move into the 2019 calendar year. As always, let us know if you have some in the bin so we can give you a call when the market changes.

 

Canola markets stumbled today along side soy markets. A sharp down turn in soy and its biproducts dragged canola down nearly $6/MT on the nearby November futures and roughly $5.50/MT on Jan and Mar. That being said, we are still seeing all three futures months trade above that $500/MT mark. Basis levels have widened as of late with $30-60/MT under not uncommon pending freight and plant location. For those with canola coming off, please keep in touch with your merchant on changing markets and any product you may have to market. Rayglen will provide you with our best possible bid FOB the farm for fairly prompt delivery.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 15, 2018

There are some early indications of oat yields coming out of Manitoba so far.  Early reports are showing oats yielding between 70 to 100 bushels per acre. Low bushel weights are also being reported due to lack of moisture. Any rain at this point is likely too little, too late. Oat prices have not changed over the last couple of weeks. Prices range from $2.25 to $2.40 per bushel fob the farm. Feed oat prices have ranged from $ 2.00 to $2.20 per bushel fob the farm.  Call your Rayglen merchant if you are looking to move some product before December.

 

Feed barley prices have definitely shown some strength in the last couple weeks. With many buyers quoting prices between $4.40 to $4.70 fob the farm on good quality and location dependent. The feed barley market has experienced more demand due to China’s increased purchasing.  Saudi Arabia politics have not affected the barley price.   The malt barley price and feed price have less of a gap than we have seen in previous years. Indicated malt prices are $4.75-$5.00/bu delivered. Analysts have been saying that the feed prices are going to stay strong for most of the year, but there are always some price dips every now and again.

 

The prairies have been experiencing quite the heat wave recently, which has been providing some support for canola pricing. This support is due to the fact that traders are trying to evaluate how much the yield will be affected by this heat. The uncertainty over potential yield losses is keeping some support in canola. Even though it is still more expensive than US beans, which could impact demand outlooks, as per market reports. Overall the canola market is trending sideways; China looking for more non-US origin supplies will benefit us a bit but the expense relative to US beans will keep it at bay. Currently, the Nov futures are down slightly this morning at $504.7/MT.

 

Canary seed prices have not moved at all in the past few weeks despite questions about the size of this year’s crop. Indications currently sit around 21 cents/lb picked up in your yard to as high as 22 cents/lb delivered plant. Some analysts believe the absence of a seasonal decline this year shows signs that supplies are expected to tighten later in the crop year. This tightness of supplies could bring a price increase in the back half of 2018/2019 as high as 3-4 cents/lb. As more producers get into their canary seed crops and we start to have a better understanding of this year’s yield, we should have a better idea of where this market is heading.

 

Flax prices continue sideways this week. Pricing for a milling quality flax remains as high as $12.50/bu picked up in the yard for movement in the fall. This program is filling up and movement will start to get pushed out into the new year shortly so, if you’re thinking you want to get that flax moved before 2018, you may want to look at signing something up. For a #1 quality flax, we are still hearing bids at $12.25/bu delivered to various plants around the province. Reports out of Russia are stating a flax acreage increase as high as 31% year over year. Despite lower expected yields in Western Canada, this increased competition from Russia could limit any price upside over the next crop year.

 

Pea prices have stayed relatively flat this past week.  Buyers are still saying slow demand in yellow peas has kept the price flat to perhaps even down slightly. Yellow peas have been trading around $6.00/bu fob the farm for a good quality #2, but this is becoming harder to attain as the week has dragged on. Green peas have interest at the $7.80 to $8.00/bu fob the farm also for a good quality #2.  Maple peas have been doing the best out of all of the peas and have been sitting around $11.00/bu fob the farm, however this market can get saturated very quickly, so those with any in the bins should be talking to your Rayglen merchant. It is still early but reports of pea yields have started to flow in. It’s very apparent those that caught rain have very good yields, but a lot of growers have expressed disappointment as the dry and hot weather has reduced yields drastically in some cases.

 

Western Canadian bean crops are taking a toll with the hot and dry conditions, causing early maturity and hindering some pod filling. Ontario has had improved conditions from recent rains, but an average yield for Canada is less likely. Bean crops in the US are showing deterioration also caused form lack of moisture. Analysts caution from overreacting to the latest ratings as conditions were far worse last year and a high yield was still achieved. Faba bean prices have jumped slightly up to $7.50/bu picked up in the yard, variety and grade specific. The UK’s early harvest results have been disappointing, and this could be the reason we have seen some buying interest for fabas. The Mexican bean crop is 13% ahead of last year and vegetation maps in general are showing favorable growing conditions.  Overall, bean prices are likely to be supported due to reduced acreage and production in the US and Canada. We could see the prices creep up later in the season. Pinto beans are likely to see the most increase in price as they have been the biggest crop for acreage reductions. For a price on a specific bean you are growing, call your Rayglen merchant.

 

Chickpea markets take another blow this week with USDA reporting an additional 158,000 acres from it’s original expectation. Using 25 bu/acre for expected yield, the increase adds 100,000 MTS more to the production. Markets have made no changes as everyone is in “wait and see” mode with harvest starting; so, this news just adds fuel to the fire that we are on a downward trend for chickpeas. Bids have not moved in lieu of this report as today’s values have so far kept bins closed and has not made the overseas market blink. Bids for #2 Orion/Leaders at $0.25/lb FOB for 9/10mm and $0.21-$0.23/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Feed values somewhere between $0.10-$0.13/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

 

Mustard this week seems to be very similar to last week. Some yield reports are coming in around 15bu/acre; some better, some less depending on rain fall throughout the growing season. As crop starts to come off we do have quick movement so talk with your merchant on that. New crop contracts with an act of god are non-existent at this point. Yellow mustard this week is sitting around $0.35/lb, brown at $0.34/lb, and oriental at $0.28/lb fob farm all on a #1 quality. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you are looking for so, make sure you are talking to your merchant on those as well. Also, a reminder as crop starts to come off – get your pre-shipping sample off to the buyer if you have a contract made, so grade can be determined.

 

Lentil harvest has started, and some areas have already finished.  Early yield indications range all over the place depending on location in the province and moisture levels. Prices remain quiet on large green lentils, small green lentils and French green lentils. Reds lentils are trading around the $0.15/lb range with some places offering pretty decent movement options.  Demand may be quiet on the green side of things due to the fact that harvest is a couple weeks ahead of schedule. If you are wanting to sell your green lentils, offers maybe the best options as prices and movement are flat right now.

 

Wheat milling markets are seeing some harvest pressure, whereas feed wheat bids are showing strength. Canadian wheat harvest is barely underway while US spring wheat harvest in the Dakota’s is 30% complete. We’re hearing of a wide range of US yields from 40 bu/ac up to 70 bu/ac and getting reports of higher protein levels in South Dakota. MPLS Sept futures are well down from recent July highs and testing first level support near $5.80. This is translating to local delivered bids of near $7/bu delivered base 13.5 pro. Protein spreads have also re-aligned and narrowed for the crop year; spreads are in the range of 1 cent per 10th higher than 13.5% and 2 cents per 10th lower than 13.5% protein. Feed wheat bids are $5.30-$5.70/bu picked up on farm dependent on location. The U.S. durum crop is forecasted to spring back to about 2 million tonnes for production, up 34% versus last year. Not many yield reports from the Canadian durum growing areas. Anecdotally, we’re hearing of a wide range of crop conditions ranging from high expectations to the lower end, so I guess expect average production levels across the west. Local durum bids are in the range of $6.50/bu picked up on farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 8, 2018

There has been quite a bit of chatter this week regarding the trade relations with Saudi Arabia. Their main state wheat buying agency had announced on Tuesday that they will no longer accept Canadian wheat and barley. However, reading through stat reports this is unlikely to affect us much, as Canada has shipped zero tonnes of barley to Saudi Arabia in the 2017/2018 marketing year. Looking at prices for the week; feed barley is trading at values around $4.35 – $4.80/bu picked up depending on location of grain. The closer to the Alberta border the more aggressive the pricing is (may even have pricing above $4.80/bu). We still have some new crop bids available as well, speak with your merchant on pricing/movement options.

 

Flax prices are sideways this week with milling in the $12.50/bu range picked up and #1 quality $12.25/bu delivered to plant. Analysts report that western Canada estimates yields of 22.5/bu acre on 2018 flax. The ending stocks are still in question and the smaller 2018 crop could mean restrictions on exports and prices likely to remain supported. The US crop continues to look positive with ratings at 82% good or excellent.  US flax prices are keeping Canadian bids low for now, but we could see prices edge higher once the US looks north for supplies. The first estimate out of Russia came last week at 31% larger than last year for seeded acres. This in turn could limit upside potential for Canadian flax, but there is still uncertainty on Black Sea region yields. China flax prices remain under pressure and inventories are comfortable. For those looking for bin space, plan ahead as movement is extended out.

 

Soybean Nov futures have been hovering around near-term resistance at $9.00. This level is attributed to good US crop conditions and the ongoing trade tensions with China. Currently, the soybean crop is estimated at 67 percent in good-to-excellent condition. Year-over-year there is still a substantial improvement with good-to-excellent crops up 7 percentage points from 2017 and 1 percentage point from the five-year average of 66 percent. Industry yield expectations are aligning at 49.7 bushels per acre which is up from the current USDA projection of 48.5 bpa. Local Canadian bids currently show good pricing opportunity at $10.40/bu picked up on farm dependent on freight area. Faba beans are once again showing early indications of select export opportunities. $7.00/bu picked is currently available based on sample matching strict export quality standards. Local faba feed bids are in the $6.00/bu picked up on farm dependent on freight location. Dry bean crops are in good shape across North America; this will ultimately put some pressure on local grower bids. Canadian buyers are aggressively looking for product so contact your Rayglen merchant if you are looking to market.

 

Canary seed is still maintaining the same prices it has for the past couple weeks. Current indications are showing from 21 cents picked up at the farm gate to 22 cents delivered to plant or processing facility. The acres are low and the dry conditions raise some concerns about production numbers so we will see if this market heads up or if the hidden tonnes in bins from years previous production still weigh heavily on the price.

 

Canola has shown some recent strength but is largely following the soybean market. That’s not to say that recent hot dry weather in the Canadian Prairies hasn’t helped buoy the market a little. We are all still working with the Stats Can 22.7 million seeded acres and so far, a forecasted decrease by 1.5 bpa yield to 39.45 bpa. Everything being considered, it’s forecasted that we’ll decrease carry outs and end up with an approximate 24% stocks to use ratio for 2018/19; this would be down 4% from 2017/18. Local basis has adjusted for harvest and generally sits in that negative $25/MT delivered range. November canola futures are likely to experience head winds at $520-$525/mt barring some big change in fundamental news. Current futures levels of $510/mt are still generating $11/bu delivered bids which is pretty good for harvest and taking some risk off the table.

 

The chickpea market has been running a little sideways the past week or so after the prices took a bit of a tumble down a few weeks ago. Currently on large kabulis we have some new crop bids at 24 to maybe 25 cent range across the board pricing on new crop acres including an act of God. These bids are not widespread or open for large tonnage but if you have interest, we may still be able to find some room to squeeze you in. Crop reports show the chickpeas in Sask to be ok on quality but dryness over the past couple of weeks may steal a few bushels away on the final tonnage. If you are one of the handful of growers still in the desi chickpea market we do have some buyer interest at some decent looking pricing options, call the office for more details.

 

This week we are seeing a bit of life to the oats market which is a change since oat pricing has been dead for so long. With the shortage of feed grains right now from it being so hot and dry in the key feed growing areas, buyers are starting to look for alternatives from barley and wheat and oats is next in line. Make sure if you have oats in the ground or have some stored in a bin to let your merchant know so they can keep you updated on prices or throw an offer up and see if it triggers. Market prices today are sitting around $2.25-2.40/bu fob farm.

 

We will soon discover exactly what our lentil supply situation looks like as harvest has started across the prairies with lentils being the first crop many producers will take off. Some pre-harvest estimates are floating around 24 bu/acre. Speaking with a few producers that are out in the fields we have heard yields anywhere from 15-30 bu/acre, which takes us close to those pre-harvest estimates. Based on this information, Western Canada is going to have a very high number of lentils on farm in the near future. Current bids for red lentils remain in the 14.5-15.5 cents/lb delivered range depending on the closest delivery point to you. Large green lentils are tradable today at 20 cents/lb picked up in your yard for a #2 quality. News came out of India last week that they are looking into restricting the import of lentils that have been sprayed pre-harvest with glyphosate. While nothing firm has come out of the situation since, we do want to make everyone aware of the possibility and allow you to make the best, educated decision for your farm. We have seen some producers switching to Reglone for their desiccation to offset the potential market risks.

 

Wheat markets have heated up a bit over the last 2 weeks. The MN board has been showing a bit of pop since news of USDA projections of EU and Russia reduction in acres. CWRS valued FOB farm at $7.20-$7.40 O/N/D location dependent. Durum harvest is starting up with yield suspect to be average. All things considered, we are seeing opportune interest in for 4th quarter movement of 2018. Believe this is to cover sales made earlier in the year with the anticipation of lower values in the 4th quarter as opposed to a solid market move. Southern Sask bids for #1 CWAD FOB farm range from $7-$7.25 for S/O/N and a bit of carry with $7.25-$7.50 for J/F/M. Durum market this year would be opportunity driven so watch for that rather than solid moves.

 

There is not much exciting news in the pea market this week to speak of. The markets have been quiet overseas with not a whole lot of buying interest. This is reflected on the current market prices.  Yellow peas have been trading around $6.00/bu fob the farm for a good quality #2. Green peas have interest at $8.00/bu fob the farm also for a good quality #2.  Maple peas have been doing the best out of all of the peas and have been sitting around $11.25/bu fob the farm, however this market can get saturated very quickly, so those with any in the bins should be talking to your Rayglen merchant. There have been reports that some peas have been harvested with average yields, but it is still early in the 2018 harvest.  In Saskatchewan, the growing conditions was rated 70% good to excellent. This is on par with the long-term average.

 

Mustard has stayed relatively stable this week even as harvest approaches quickly. There are some yield reports starting to trickle in from southern areas, but it’s very early at this point.  Production contracts on yellow mustard are around 33 cents, 32 cents on brown mustard, and oriental at 27 cents/lb. This will be coming to an end shortly, as act of god contracts have already been tough to get. You may still be able to get one for hail only for instance. On old crop; brown mustard has slipped a little, trading around 32c/lb and yellow has been around 33 to 34 c/lb and up to 35c/lb for later movement. Old crop oriental has been quiet and has been sitting around the 27 c/lb mark. It is best to call the office and speak with one of our merchants as you may find some quick movement if it’s needed for space.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 1, 2018

Raylgen’s staff has been out of the office for the past couple weeks on our annual crop tour across the northern states and prairie provinces. We will be returning next week, at which time we will resume our regular market comments.

Thank you.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


« Previous PageNext Page »