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Rayglen Market Comments – June 12, 2019

Bullish feed wheat prices continue again this week.  The obvious reason being the lack of precipitation. These dry, warm, windy conditions have propelled prices in which we haven’t seen for quiet some time.  We’ve seen feed pricing in that $6.00 – $6.30/bu FOB farm to $7.25 delivered with the latter close to feedlot alley.  So, if you are looking to part with your feed give us a call and we’ll find you the best price.  Old crop hard red milling wheat is lingering around that $7.00 – $7.05/bu delivered with a 13.5 protein for July/Aug movement. As well, durum seems to have some life with $7.50/bu FOB farm triggering on old crop, while new crop hovers around $7.00.  New crop feed wheat prices range in that $5.00 – $5.20/bu FOB farm. A little less remarkable is the pricing on new crop milling wheat. Should new crop pricing perk up, we’ll be sure to spread the word. Overall, should our dry weather and the States excessive moisture issues continue, ultimately pushing corn acres out, we may see these prices creep up.

Flax markets remain fairly aggressive this week with prices up to $14.50/bu picked up in the yard. However, new crop lags with flax supplies expected to increase in the 2019/20 season. The US flax crop will also be larger, which means Canadian exports headed south will be flat to lower. Chinese demand has fallen off slightly as well. All of this will weigh on flax bids, which is why new crop values have not been increasing. The old crop program is likely close to being filled, and then we will start seeing prices converge to those new crop prices. If the province has some decent rainfall, it is not too late to provide relief for the flax crop, however, Canadian crop conditions are the wild card.

Oat markets are strong for another week. Dry weather seen across much of the Prairies and tight supply seems to be keeping this market propped up. Prices have shifted another gear and continue to trend upwards. On milling quality Oats, there is a possibility to get $4.05 delivered into Manitoba with $3.25-$3.50 FOB farm not an unrealistic in the southeast. Depending on where your farm is, picked up bids will vary, but targets are a great play in this strong market. Feed oats, range from $2.75/bu to $3.00/bu FOB the farm, depending on your location. On new crop milling oats are still indicated at $3.25 to $3.50 /bu delivered for further out movement. Perhaps if we get wide spread showers, we may see these prices drop, but for now this market continues to be a bright spot.

Canola is up a little on Wednesday as it follows a big push by soybeans to start the day. One would think with this dry weather and poor looking canola crops, we would start to show an uptick in the futures price, but at this point we have not seen much reaction. Current canola bids are around the $9.75/bu mark delivered to plant plus or minus a little depending on the basis level. July futures are currently priced at $458/MT. Fall pricing is a little weaker as the basis levels are quite a bit worse for new crop at this juncture, but we are guessing that those should get stronger based on crop conditions. The scattered showers that have moved through the west this week obviously won’t hurt the crop, but how much help they are bringing is yet to be seen. Between drought, late frost and flea beetles the canola crop has faced a lot of issues this year, so we will see how this plays out in coming weeks. 

Saskatchewan pea conditions are showing a lack of rain and, as per Sask Ag, only 49% of the crop was rated good to excellent. The majority of the province is waiting for a rain to roll through, but there have been sections in the eastern prairies that have seen moisture. Yield forecasts aren’t reduced just yet for peas, but the next week or two is crunch time and will depend heavily on rains come through. Looking overseas, India hasn’t removed any of the import barriers for peas, but India does seem to be lacking in moisture as well with the monsoon delayed as per Stat reports. For grain pricing, yellow peas are trading at $7.00/bu delivered and new crop at $6.50/bu FOB. Green peas haven’t fluctuated much since last week and are still trading at $11.50/bu FOB for old crop and $8.00/bu FOB on new crop.

New crop chickpeas contracts had a slight gain this week. Bids on #2 quality come in at $0.26/lb FOB farm with an AOG depending on location. The same cannot be said for old crop as their value drops a penny to $0.24/lb FOB farm. While it feels like there is a scramble in the current market as we wait for rain, it is not affecting the chickpeas markets congruently. Thoughts behind this are; acres did not fall as expected for the coming harvest and we are still seeing ample supply on farm. Year to date exports thus far are 84.8k MTS vs 713.k MTS in 2017, which also supports a stall in the market. It is hard to say what it will take to improve values as we move forward through the crop year, so we sit and wait. Feed values hover at $0.13-0.14/lb FOB farm and desi chickpeas remain a grey area. Desi new crop is a point of conversation on both the buy and sell side, with neither party knowing where to price it. India is a major factor in the Desi market value and we will continue this holding pattern until either the grower decides on a trigger value or the commercial market gets a hit on a sale price.

Soybean traders are trying to get a handle on US farmer planting intentions. Farmers are weighing the soybean return based on potential returns and an ever-shrinking planting window. Uncertainty often drives markets and as such, soybean futures are up 20 cents thus far today. Yesterday’s USDA report provided no change to 2019 production but increased new crop carryout inventories. For now, US corn will drive most North American commodity markets until the June USDA planted acreage report is released near the end of June. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50 – $8.00/bu delivered plant.

Mustard markets are flat again this week. Everyone in the trade is watching closely, as reports of heavy flea beetles and drought cause concerns in oilseeds. Rain hopefully develops later this week as forecast models now indicate some scattered rain for the next few days. New crop bids stay the same, with indications on full crop year yellow mustard at 35 cents/lb, brown 29 cents/lb, oriental (Forge/Vulcan) 26 cents/lb, oriental (cutlass) 25 cents/lb.  Spot yellow mustard remains at a stable 35 cents/lb FOB farm on a #1 quality. Brown mustard holds firm with bids ranging from 28-30 cents and the latter definitely attainable in most cases. Oriental continues to lag behind grower expectations at 25 cents picked up for Forge/Vulcan variety, while Cutlass carries a 2-cent discount. Some grower targets have been able to catch a quicker delivery period at above mentioned prices. New crop contracts contain full act of God and are picked up on farm.

Interesting numbers on lentil exports being reported by Statistics Canada this week. 1.467 million tonnes of lentils have shipped as of April 30, 2019. That is just over a 26% increase from last year. You heard right, a 26% increase on a year where India has a 33% tariff on lentils and Turkey reduces imports. Doesn’t make much sense, or does it? The bigger picture gives us a better idea of what is going on. 2017-18 held our lowest export value in the last 3 years, so seeing increases this year isn’t a total shock. We are still well behind (600,000 MT) the 3-year average. The increase to India may be explained by their higher priced pigeon peas, which means lentils are being used as a cheaper substitute. Another likely scenario is India did not have as good as crop as expected. Finally, although exports to Turkey are down, we have seen other countries picking up import numbers and make up that difference. It seems everyone has been under the assumption that little product has moved but based on these numbers that doesn’t seem to be the case. This year we have seen a lot more competition on the buy side of lentils especially with more line companies getting into the game. This could be the reason why there is the misconception that not much for lentils have moved. The most encouraging news out of these numbers is that India is slowly getting back in the game and other countries have come to the table to purchase. Weather remains the markets biggest concern right now. Western Canada remains dry, India’s monsoons remain delayed and Australia also experiences weather concerns. This may bring stronger pricing, but for now reds trade at 18.5-19c/lb, large greens at 22c/lb with indications of trading higher, medium greens at 15c/lb USD and small greens at 18c/lb for #1 quality FOB farm.

The canaryseed market is showing signs of strength as we continue to see drought in some key growing areas. Exports this crop year are on pace for around 158,000 MT, which would be the highest export totals for Canada since 2014-2015. This combined with current crop ratings at only 11% good compared to 55% last year, shows why we may be seeing some more strength in the coming months. For now, old crop has traded as high as $0.235/lb picked up on farm for quick movement. New crop has bumped slightly to as high as $0.22/lb picked up on farm with an Act of God clause depending on movement preference.

Feed barley is strong this week, riding on coat tails of drought conditions here and dwindling corn acres in the US.  With corn acres significantly down in the states due to flooding, prices creep higher and in turn, support barley markets. Barley acres are up here in Canada, but without rain over the past few weeks, crops are looking grim and are in need of a drink. Barley supply on farm is virtually nothing as last year was also dry, so feed got bought up quickly. There is rain in the forecast for the weekend and we hope to see that come through. A significant wide spread rain event seems to be the main focus of growers. Today prices are around $5-5.25/bu FOB farm, better bids as you go west. New crop is also available around $4.20/bu FOB farm DDC, depending on freight area. If you are looking for the 30bpa act of god clause, you’re likely forfeiting $0.20/bu.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees

Rayglen Market Comments – June 5, 2019

The prairie provinces are in desperate need of some rain, which may be providing some underlying support for the lentil market. According to the CGC there has been 506,000 tonnes of lentils moved this year to date, compared to last year when only 255,000 tonnes were shipped. The five-year average is 486,000 tonnes. More aggressive bids have popped up the last few weeks and buyers are looking to secure product, particularly medium and large green lentils. Large green lentils have been selling around 21 to 22c/lb FOB on a #2 quality, while medium varieties trade at 19 to 20c/lb (13-14 cents USD).  Small red lentils continue to show support at 18.5c/lb delivered. Although bids are much more attractive than only a few months ago, dry conditions have some growers bullish. New crop red bids hover around 17-17.5 c/lb picked up with an AOG. New crop large green lentils have traded at 22/20c/lb on a #1/#2 quality. Analysts and producers both feel there is an upside to prices on both red and green lentils and if mother nature doesn’t provide us with much needed precipitation, they may be right. Only time will tell.

A good majority of the oats in the province have been seeded and moisture issues are prevalent. As of right now, oat demand is still strong for June – July movement. On milling quality, we have bids up at $4.05/bu delivered in MB, with picked up bids up around $3.50/bu. Bids are stronger in the South East of Saskatchewan due to freight advantages. Feed oats are trading at $2.75/bu FOB with $3.00/bu FOB having a good possibility of trading on offer. Targets are being looked at by buyers if you have supply in the bin that you are looking to move before harvest. For new crop, bids are around $3.30/bu delivered for off the combine movement and $3.50/bu for movement into 2020.

Wheat values continue to see a slight upturn this week as hot and dry weather continues. Milling quality values creeping up showing delivered elevator 13.5% pro at $7-$7.05/bu. Durum is almost par at $7/bu for old and new crop. June-July feed values have also taken a turn for the better as cattle farmers continue to hold off selling their stock and the demand for feed supply increases. Traded feed values range from $7-$7.25/bu delivered facility in Canada ($6.00-$6.30/bu FOB) and USD $5/bu FOB farm for some areas of the USA. New crop has not seen such fortune yet with prices holding steady at $5/bu FOB the farm. It feels like these markets will continue to escalate if the better part of SK doesn’t see rain but would expect a sharp change if we do.

Mustard markets continue down the unchanged path for another week. Producer concerns over the lack of moisture haven’t yet translated into buyer concern. Spot yellow mustard remains at a stable 34-35 cents/lb FOB farm basis #1 quality. Brown mustard holds firm with bids ranging from 28-30 cents and the latter definitely attainable in most cases. Oriental continues to lag behind grower expectations at 25 cents picked up for Forge/ Vulcan variety, while Cutlass carries a 2-cent discount. New crop bids are unchanged, with indications on full crop year (Sep’19-Jul’20) as follows: yellow 35cents/lb, brown 29cents/lb, oriental (Forge/Vulcan) 26cents/lb, oriental (cutlass) 25cents/lb. Some grower targets have proven to catch a quicker delivery period at above mentioned prices. New crop contracts contain full act of God and are picked up on farm.

Canaryseed markets are unchanged again this week. Demand from local buyers remains steady, but we haven’t seen any major push to purchase. This comes as somewhat of a surprise as we experience drought conditions throughout the majority of the canary seeded area. We may see demand increase if dryness continues and there is a scare of smaller production this fall. On the other side of the equation is carry out. Stocks never seem to be as low as reported, so this may be the reason we aren’t seeing a spike in value at this time. Should prices take a jump, it will be interesting to see what kind of volume comes out of the unreported bins. Prices this week are around 23c/lb FOB farm, but an offer may trade at 23.5 cents. New crop bids are also still floating around 21c/lb FOB farm, with an act of God.

Canola futures were traded almost $3/tonne less today, finishing at $450.20/MT for July. The prospect for much needed rain later this week has weighed somewhat on the futures. Western Canada planting is near completion and the lack of moisture has hindered germination and growth as we hear of some areas re-seeding. If the expected rain later this week disappoints, then we could potentially see the canola futures have an uptrend. The market is still on pause for now. The Canada-China dispute along with unsold old crop, still has pressure on the canola market. The support to Canadian canola from May was mostly spillover business in to the US markets. However, if the US soybean markets trend higher, it will be difficult to continue to break into that canola market.

The flax market remains strong this week with many buyers bellying up to the bar to get in to the action. Firm targets as high as $15/bu picked up in the yard have triggered on #1 brown this past week for those lucky enough to have held through the winter and spring. Many thought the issues with China on canola would bleed into the flax market as well, but thus far flax has skirted these pitfalls. One would surmise that the primary reason for this is simply due to low stocks. New crop prices have not run up like the current crop values at this juncture and are maintaining the $12 to $12.25/bu range FOB farm with AOG that they have been floating around for a while. Oddly, at a discount to the current crop brown flax price, yellow flax is trading at $14/bu this week as a picked up in the yard deal for those still holding. New crop opportunities are at similar levels including an act of God.

Yellow peas are stable for another week as prices remain in the $6.50-$6.80 picked up on farm range.  Green peas are a little quieter, with buyers not interested in chasing bin bottoms. Maple peas are in much of the same boat for old crop product. We did, however, have a buyer ask about new crop maples over the past week, especially the mosaic variety. The buyer is willing to look at grower offers at this time. The strength in yellows is due to the fact there is still some left in the bin, and everyone is looking for something to process. Weather will be the next factor to drive these prices so will wait to see if the rain comes.

Soybean futures ran out of steam today after achieving recent highs on Tuesday. The market is grappling with the impact of corn acres either switching to soybeans or tending to prevent plant. China trade rumors still swirl about the market, but ultimately have as much substance as any previous rumor. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50 – $8.00/bu delivered. Canadian dry bean planting is largely wrapped up and market prices converted to CAD dollars remain supportive.

Feed barley continues to be one of few standouts when it comes to grain pricing this year. Old crop prices are currently being supported by low on-farm stocks, dry weather, and U.S. corn planting struggles. Bids in Saskatchewan have been anywhere between $5.00-$5.30/bu picked up on farm for a June/July movement. Bids are stronger the further west you are located. We do expect to see a decrease in price as we get closer to August and the new crop becomes available. Currently, new crop bids are between $3.75-$4.00/bu picked up on farm depending on your location and preference of movement. On the malt side of things, firm bids for both old and new crop have been scarce, but buyers have been willing to look at firm offers, so if you have a number in mind give us a call.

Kabuli chickpea prices are still trending flat this past week. Again, with the Election in India complete, it’s up in the air if anything changes regarding imports and tariffs. So, with nobody holding out much hope for a quick change on that front, we look at supply. It is looking like crops around the world are smaller by fairly tiny margins, but the chickpea market is quiet due to the carryover from last year. Supplies will be ample worldwide again even though total acreage has dipped here in Canada. The wildcard in all this, is rain. It is looking dry in many areas of Saskatchewan and Alberta right now. It is yet to be seen how this plays out as it’s still early in June. We have seen prices in the 23 to 25c /lb range for average of sizes, based on a #2 quality. New crop sits around that 23c mark with an act of God. Call the office with offers…as it may be time to look at options for new crop.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees

Rayglen Market Comments – May 29, 2019

Feed barley is a shining light again this week. Strong prices have been maintained by the dry weather and minimal carryover. This combination has the feedlots calling for product, which is reflected in the price. Expect to see bids in that range of $4.60 – $5.20/bu FOB farm, with the latter in select locations, for that June/July movement. However, if it ever decides to rain, these old crop prices will disappear in a hurry with the rejuvenation to the pasture land and new crop around the corner. New crop feed barley comes in around that $3.75 – $4.00/bu FOB farm with the possibility of an act of God in some cases.  On the other hand, old crop and new crop malt barley prices have been difficult to locate.  Putting out an offer may be the best way to go.

With seeding mostly wrapped up in Saskatchewan, many are waiting for a rain. Soil moisture is lacking in quite a few areas, which has some expecting a slight uptick in lentil pricing. However, lentil carryover may keep this uptick at bay. India had shown a bit of optimism late last week, as per Stat reports, which brought up more export business. With this we saw an increase in old crop lentil pricing. Red lentil targets were hitting at 18.50-19 cents FOB, large green lentils were trading at 22 cents FOB on a #2 and small greens edged up to 18 cents delivered on a #1 quality. New crop is slowly getting started with producers looking to lock in a price with an act of God. Red lentils bids remain at 17 cents FOB, large greens at 20 cents FOB and small greens trade at 17/16 FOB on a #1/#2 quality

Oats continue to hang in there as one of the most unchanged and strongest priced commodities. Bids hold firm as buyers look to purchase the remaining product in the bin. Feed bids continue to bounce around $2.75- $3.00 per bushel FOB farm on decent quality 40lb oats for quick movement. Milling oats have been trading around $3.65/bu delivered or $3.25 FOB in select locations. It all depends on freight costs, but with the stronger sentiment, we feel some buyers may be willing to stretch those numbers. The closer you are to the Manitoba border the better. New crop oats still hover around $3.00/bu delivered to plant.

Canola has been rising on the futures markets these past few days. This has been a nice change as of late as we see canola around $457MT for July at time of writing today. There are serious concerns on a very wet Midwest US and that has been propping up grain and oilseeds markets in the last few trading sessions. It’s becoming apparent that a lot of short positions are being closed and fund traders have been buying the market up. US plantings are also far behind the 5-year average as of this week. This news has been taking over the Chinese import issues that Canada is having, for this week anyway.  We are starting again to see bids around that $10-dollar mark delivered.

While desi chickpea prices are trending higher in India, kabuli prices are still sitting sideways. This suggests India’s desi supply is not as plentiful as estimated. With the Indian election complete, what changes, if any, will there be to the tariffs imposed by the Indian government? Indian prices have risen from their record lows and have just about breached the specified minimum support price. Chickpeas are India’s largest pulse crop followed by their pigeon pea crop. This upward movement in prices, could hopefully lift other pulse prices as well. The trade has slowly built up inventory in anticipation of moving some of that product. Indian monsoons are reported to be normal to below normal, however that season runs until September, so reports could change. Indian acres look ambitious right now, but considering weather risks and grower fatigue, the government may have to look at tariff restrictions once the kharif harvest begins in September and October. The sideways pricing on Canadian chickpeas is due to our carry-over, so the large supplies could limit prices well into the 2019/20 season.

Soybean market is up again today fueled by concerns over mid-west wet weather and the resulting delays. Soybean planting is running at a record slow pace of 29% complete. The 3 critical “I” states are reporting some of the lowest and slowest planting progress. Fundamentals and trade issues still remain but, are taking a backseat at this point. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50/bu delivered. Canadian dry bean planting is on the home stretch for many across the Prairies this week.

Feed wheat prices have smartened up a little this week, with growers able to catch a $6/bu in most areas of the province on firm target. Some areas with freight advantages should be able to tag a bit of a higher number, picked up on farm. Milling hard red wheat prices have swung up a bit, with delivered elevator bids on #1 13.5% pro back in to the high $6’s range. Not great but showing signs of life at least. Durum numbers have pushed up slightly too. Fall bids are back to $7/bu or better delivered in for #1, 13.5% Pro to various locations around the province. Fall prices for milling wheat are a bit weaker than the summer prices and not really worth noting at this juncture. Feed prices for the fall are hovering around $5/bu picked up in many areas, so if you have interest we can get a bid tailored to your farm.

Mustard remains flat once again this week. With seeding wrapped up for most of the key mustard growing areas, we now hope for rain. Dry conditions are scattered throughout the province, and if we don’t see any moisture within the next couple of weeks, you may see prices move up for both new and old crop. But for now, reports are still showing prices staying steady for yellow, oriental and brown. Keep in mind targets may provide a couple cent increase on all varieties. Spot bids are as follows: 35c/lb on yellow, 29-30c/lb on brown, forge/vulcan variety oriental at 26c/lb, and cutlass variety at 23.5c/lb. New crop bids are still being shown by buyers, with the most attractive bids being posted for the full crop year movement. 35c/lb on yellow, 29/lb on brown, and 26c/lb on oriental depending on variety are quoted bids FOB farm with act of God. If you are looking for a quicker movement, please call your merchant.

After seeing a build up of canaryseed stocks at the Thunder Bay terminals recently, confirmation has been received that vessels will soon be moving over to Europe, bumping up our export totals for the year. This round of buying took place quietly with relatively no affect on our local prices. This tells us that stocks on farm are more comfortable than the last Stats Canada estimate showed and that prices should stay flat moving forward, barring no major weather concerns this growing season. Current bids for sound quality canaryseed are around 22.5-23.5 cents/lb picked up on farm for June/July movement.

Year to date flax exports are around 273,000MTS which is low compared to last year of 325,000MTS during the same period. With a major US crusher backing off the market, there has been a downward trend in US values, while Canadian bids climb where supply is “tight”. On the opposite side of those points, according to reported acres and yield for the 2018/2019 crop, it is still expected that exports by the end of the crop year should hit the 5-year average of 396,000MTS, which means there is potential for a lot of activity left in the coming weeks before harvest. Bids for old crop still coming in at the $14-$14.25/bu FOB farm with new crop bids at $12/bu FOB farm with an AOG. Offers are trading slightly higher. In addition, we have been seeing a demand for organic flax on both old and new crop. Seeing some action this week in yellow peas as prices reach $7.00/bu delivered plant for old cop and a couple of buyers also showing interest in new crop yellow peas at 6.50 FOB farm. India seems to have curiosity in Canadian peas as the local Indian chickpea price has been increasing. Yellow pea prices will remain a topic of interest as ending stocks are projected to be lower than earlier perceived. Also on some minds are weather concerns, not only in Canada, but also in India and what direction the Indian Government will further take on outside agriculture trade. Green peas seem quiet at the moment, but the weather will also play a major role in where future prices end up, as our carry out will be well below the five-year average and if yields are sub average expect prices to improve. Spot bids are tough to find this week, but indications pop up at $10-$11/bu. Old crop remains indicated at $8.00/bu range FOB farm with AOG. 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees

Rayglen Market Comments – May 22, 2019

Spot flax prices are still holding this week, despite new crop values indicating lower. You can still move some old crop in the $14.00-$14.25/bu FOB range, while new crop is suggesting $12.00/bu picked up. Larger volumes of flax have been moving out of Thunder Bay and Vancouver terminals. With the larger flax crop expected for 2019/20, we can expect a weight on the Canadian market. There has been no updated information regarding the Kazakhstan export data, but supplies have been steadily coming out of Russia and Ukraine. Chinese prices have lost $35 per tonne since the beginning of the month and the US crushers lost another $0.15 per bushel. So, while Canadian prices are up, we can only conclude that these high spot prices are temporary.

Dryness in many areas is keeping demand on feed barley strong. Until we see rain throughout the province, we suspect to see this market remain steady.  With very little carryover, feedlots will be using a lot more product than expected. This is, unless a rain comes along and gets pasture land back in order. The corn futures are also green this week, which helps support our barley prices. June movement barley is around $4.60-4.90/bu FOB farm and new crop sits around$3.85/bu FOB farm with an act of god in some cases, up to 45bu/acre. New crop malt values are hard to find, so an offer would be the best way to potentially get something on the books.

Seeding is progressing well, with many areas already wrapped up. This hasn’t provided any support to the pea market, with little to no change from last week’s values. Overseas markets remained unchanged as well and we wait patiently for India’s election to wrap up tomorrow (Thursday May 22nd). This could influence the Canadian pulse market, but it is generally expected to remain unchanged. Prices are sitting stable with there being a little light in the yellow pea market. Current pricing is at $7.00/bu delivered and new crop at $6.00/bu FOB. Green and maple peas seem to be past their highs of the year. Today potential bids sit in the $12.00/bu delivered on green peas and $9.00/bu on maple peas. We have a program for Shamrock variety green peas specifically, for both old and new crop, speak with your merchant on these programs. Onto new crop, green peas trade at $8.00/bu FOB and maples at $9.00/bu FOB with an Act of God.

Dry seeding conditions throughout the prairies coupled with reports of freezing temperatures overnight have some growers concerned about their canola crop. Some areas last weekend experienced a good freeze and we do have reports of damage to the early emerged crop, which is backed up as per StatsCan reports. Soybeans have provided a little support for canola earlier this week and this morning canola was slightly up, trading less than $1.00/mt higher. The canola market is still looking to the Canadian government for a solution on the Chinese trade issues which cannot be expected to be a quick fix. We are going to be experiencing an oversupply of canola this upcoming marketing year, which is also weighing on the market.

Clear across the board we are seeing parity in the feed oat market. Old crop pricing (min 40lbs, 14% moisture) is fetching $2.75/bu FOB farm for June – July movement in Saskatchewan.  Look to see the odd hotspot spike in that $2.80/bu picked up, again, around that Moose Jaw area. Milling oats are fetching a premium and expect to see prices up to $3.65/bu delivered and $3.25/bu and up for FOB farm depending on location. For spot on location specific pricing call your Rayglen agent. New crop pricing continues to hover around $3.00 – $3.15/bu delivered to plant.

There hasn’t been much fluctuation in the canaryseed market as far as pricing goes. Bids remain range bound between 22.5 to 23c/lb FOB the farm. New crop has been trading around 20c/lb picked up with an act a God; slight chance for an extra penny on firm offer. Weather challenges throughout the prairies are currently not providing support to the market. As of right now, it seems the only way canaryseed values will rise is if we see yields from this crop year significantly drop. According to StatsCan’s numbers, there is only 26,000 tonnes remaining in Canada, but that number seems far off, with many analysts estimating closer to 100,000 tonnes as of March. We don’t suspect that 75,000MT has been shipping in 2 months.

Chickpea markets remain stable and steady. Weather has cooperated in large parts of main growing areas, which is great for conditions, but not so great for prices. The Indian election results are due in tomorrow and there is still a glimmer of hope that this could ignite the India/Canada trade and have a positive effect on the coming crop values. Old crop values come in $0.22-$0.25/lb range depending on location or delivery and new crop values come in at $0.23-0.24/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Requests for low quality or feed chickpeas come in every week but values remain in that $0.11-0.14/lb range which has not motivated any sales.  

The May long weekend was kind to lentil markets as prices have jumped a cent or more since this time last week. Large green lentils are leading the charge, with old crop trading at $0.23/lb for X2 and $0.21-$0.22/lb trading for a #2 product. This latest increase is due to India covering a short in the pigeon pea market. There is still not much information in how much coverage is needed, so this maybe a short-lived spike. This market run may also be limited due to amount of supply left in Canada. Depending on what is left in the bin to market, taking advantage of a rising market is a strong play especially at this time of year when markets are usually softer. If you’re thinking of selling, this is likely as good a time as any. Especially if you are looking for movement before August as buyers are already buying June/July.  This is always a tough time of year to market; how is weather going to affect price, will the market just wait for new crop, and will product ship before harvest? Questions like this are on everyone’s mind.  Listing your priorities for a sale is likely the best tool in selling your grain. Does price outweigh movement, or vice versa? These are things you can communicate to buyers via firm offers. Marketing on weather should be the last factor as this something none of us can predict or control.

Some small milling spring wheat opportunities continue to hang around on old crop with bids between $6.60-$6.80/bu delivered into plant available in central Saskatchewan. These bids are for June/July movement and based on a #1 grade with minimum 13.5% protein. New crop milling wheat prices continue to be available around $6/bu delivered into plant for most areas. Incredibly solid feed wheat prices are still available from multiple buyers and we are seeing firm bids from $5.60/bu to as high as $6/bu picked up in select locations. New crop feed wheat values are closer to $4.50/bu picked up on farm, so if you do have some wheat in the bins, you may want to get that contracted before the slide towards new crop begins.

Soybean market is up a little today as traders wrestle with just how much US acreage will get planted and with what commodity. Nearby US weather forecasts remain wet, while news out of Washington suggests a Farmer Aid payment of $2/bu for soybeans could sway planting decisions. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.25/bu picked up on farm. Old crop #2 faba bids remain well supported for good quality whereas new crop #2 bids hover near $7.50/bu delivered. Dry bean trading activity is ordinary and seasonally slow. US dry bean planting progress ranges from 2% complete in Minnesota to as high as 54% complete in Idaho. Canadian dry bean planting across the Prairies is in full swing this week.

The mustard market remains flat this week. Buyers indicate overseas demand is the same as it has been the past few months and nothing new to report. In talking to many mustard growers, seeding has already wrapped up in southern Saskatchewan and Alberta, and the hope for rain now begins.  For new crop, full crop year movement contracts are available at $0.35/lb on yellow, $0.28/lb on brown, and $0.25-$0.26/lb on oriental depending on variety. If you have brown acres, let us know, as some December movement contracts have triggered this week at $0.28 again. Spot contracts are still available picked up on your farm at $0.35/lb on yellow, $0.30/lb on brown, and $0.22 to $0.23/lb on oriental based on #1 grades.  

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees

Rayglen Market Comments – May 15, 2019

We have seen some small opportunities come up in the milling spring wheat market. Bids are available delivered into select locations between $6.50-$6.70/bu for Jun/July movement. This is based on #1 CWRS grading and minimum 13.5% protein. New crop milling wheat prices have been hovering closer to the $6/bu mark delivered into plants around the provinces. Feed wheat prices have remained strong through the past week with prices ranging from $5.50-$5.90/bu picked up in the yard. Most of the wheat seems to be heading west so your strongest prices will be on the west side of Saskatchewan and into Alberta.
Flax prices are much the same this week, which is a good thing, as we are still seeing $14.00/bu picked up on old crop and hearing rumors of higher bids available (this is where firm grower offers come into play). New crop still trades up to $12.50/bu picked up with an act of God. Inventories at terminals have been increasing with more to come in. The US market remains soft which puts a halt on Canadian flax moving south for the time being. With the increase of flax acres in both the US and Canada, signing some up is worth some thought, as it should turn the market lower as long as growing conditions remain normal. The old crop bids will run out of steam once the upcoming sales are filled. There are also markets for yellow and off-grade flax available. Bids vary on location and quality.
Green lentils of all varieties seem to be getting a little more love this week. We have seen Richleas out of the US trade for 13 cents USD FOB farm, Canadian #2 large greens up to 20 cents and Estons as high as 17 cents FOB farm. It has been a few weeks since we’ve have had buyers this interested in purchasing green lentils. Now, obviously, prices have seen a slight increase, but nothing earth shattering, and we suspect its due to rumors that India’s pigeon pea crop may not be as good or as large as earlier perceived. Still uncertain if this a speculation buy or if actual trades are taking place. If this is speculation, price will likely disappear again as buyers wait to trade their bought product. If there is a real shortage, price may get stronger but won’t go crazy as the trade knows new crop is right around the corner. Taking any advantage of any market spike is likely not a bad idea as prices still have a lot of uncertainty in front of them and quality will become an issue once new crop comes off in the fall.
Special crops have heated up a little this week, but unfortunately it is not being reflected in chickpea markets, as one would have liked. Old crop values remain at $0.22-$0.25/lb range depending on location or delivery and new crop values come in at $0.23-0.24/lb FOB farm with an AOG. It is hard to say when this market will see some significant traction as acre intentions did not reduce as heavily as initially estimated (expected decrease of 24% in March from early reports of 58% in Jan). If weather continues to be dry it could support values, but it is hard to ignore the supply that will be available come harvest. Feed values also remain steady ranging from $0.11-$0.14/lb location dependent. Desi chickpeas are on the radar, but another week goes by where the commercial market is not ready to put a value on new crop acres. If production contracts are a part of your plan, give us a call to discuss targets.
Not much to report on the mustard front. Exports remain steady to slightly stronger, but that has not transferred to increased pricing. Its apparent that stocks are ample, and prices are staying relatively flat for now. Seeding looks to be progressing normally compared to the 5-year average. Spot contracts are available picked up on your farm at $0.35/lb on yellow, $0.30/lb on brown, and $0.22/lb on oriental based on #1 grades. For new crop, full crop year movement contracts are available at $0.35/lb on yellow, $0.28/lb on brown, and $0.25-$0.26/lb on oriental depending on variety. If you have brown acres, let us know as some December movement contracts have triggered this week at $0.28. If you do run into issues or are looking for some last-minute seed, give us a call and we will try to help you get some certified seed. We might be able to make something work.
Seeding is progressing well with favorable weather conditions for most producers; we can estimate at least 50% of the pea crop is now in the ground. With seeding moving along, we are in the seasonal low of pea pricing. The future is providing a lot of uncertainty with both Chinese and Indian markets unstable. There is the expectation that China’s imports will be reduced, but hopefully offset by India coming back to the market (yet to be seen). Current pricing on yellow peas is sitting stronger than expected considering the uncertainty, with bids at $6.80/bu delivered. As for green peas and maples we continue to follow the seasonal lull. Top green pea bids come in at $12.00/bu delivered and maple peas at $9.00/bu FOB. New crop pricing hasn’t seen any change since last week, yellows are at $6.00/bu FOB, green peas at $8.00/bu FOB and maple peas at $9.00/bu FOB.
Starting to see feed barley trend backwards, with only a few buyers still
kicking around at last week’s prices. With the large acreage increase this
year, the demand for old crop feed barley from feedlots is starting to dwindle as new crop will be off in a few months. Corn prices are down this week as well, providing a cheaper alternative again. New crop barley is around $3.60/bu FOB farm for movement by end of December, and with an act of god. New crop malt bids are getting hard to find but, posting an offer may attract a buyer to take it. Old crop bids are between $4.20-4.65/bu FOB farm, with the exception that the further west you go bids get better. Movement is posted as May-June, and after that bids drop off again, so this might a good time to move product if you need the bin space for this year’s crop.
We’ve seen some renewed interest in the oat market today and over the past week. Buyers are still looking for product and willing to pay a premium to get it. If you’re a producer with some milling oats in Manitoba, South Eastern Saskatchewan or the northern states you’re likely looking at $3.25/bu picked up and in some cases higher. Of course, bids are based on location so give your Rayglen agent a call. On the feed side of things, we’ve seen some nice spot pricing pop up in that Moose Jaw area at $2.80/bu FOB farm. Other areas in Sask may capture similar values and offers are likely the best route to hit that high. For those in less desirable freight areas, look to see the feed prices hover in that $2.25 – $2.50/bu picked up. New crop pricing remains steady at $3 – $3.15/bu milling quality delivered to plant.
Canola markets leveled off Wednesday after a strong push up Tuesday riding on the strength of soybeans. We would love to say that the canola market was bolstered of its own accord, but other than drier conditions lingering around the province, with some reprieve today in that respect, there is no real bullish news to push prices. Basis levels from company to company seem to have the largest effect on price these days, with talk of 10 under to 55 under depending on movement window. Best to look around on options to make sure you are capturing the best opportunity on the day when you move to sell. As always keep an eye on market rallies, like Tuesday/Wednesday morning, as this is the best chance to move something as summer comes up.
Things seem to be moving smoothly regarding canaryseed planting. Recent reports show that as of early last week, 12% of the canary in Saskatchewan has been planted. This compared to the 5-year average of 9%. The only down side is that most across the prairies are looking to the skies for some moisture to fall with little to no avail to bolster crop prospects. The low moisture levels are being exasperated with these warm, dry, windy days. This is especially the case for those in west central SK. Pricing seems to be holding steady this last bit. Look to see old crop prices around 22-23 c/lb FOB farm with new crop prices remaining at 20 c/lb FOB farm with an act of God.
Despite rocky relationships between US and China and some of the lowest board values in months, we might see an increase in Soybean acres. Why? Wet conditions and a slow start in the US, when considering length of the growing cycles, have producers inclined to reduce corn acres and therefore increase soybean acres. Domestic soybean bids continue at the $9.00-$9.50/bu FOB farm for both old and new crop. Faba beans are being held up by the Egyptian and US markets again this month with some support from the Middle East. Thus far, year to date exports are 27,500MTS vs 20,900MTS last year. While Canada has become a more established supplier of the faba bean market, it is expected that production will increase globally in turn keeping our Canadian markets relatively flat. Old crop #2 faba bids are steady at $11/bu FOB farm for #2 CGC quality and new crop remains at $7.50/bu FOB farm with an AOG. Keep in mind, there have been unreported trades at higher levels based on targets.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – May 8, 2019

The canola market has seen two consecutive days of price recovery after a weak Monday following losses in the soybean market. This is not to say canola prices are good, because they are not, but at least they are a bit better than they looked Monday. Analysts are not expecting this strength in the market to push for too long, but more so a reactionary bounce coupled with a few smaller circumstances, like the Japanese market re-opening after a holiday. Many bids out there are in the $9/bu range, but we have heard reports of higher bids popping in and out as buyers look to cover off orders. Keep your ears open for these small selling opportunities if you’re still holding product in the bin.

If you have ever watched paint dry or grass grow, then you have a good comparison to the current activity in chickpea markets. Old and new crop pricing, sizing differences and pet food values are amongst the topics we question our buyers on and the responses have been lackluster at best. Talk of how pet food supply has been hot the last two years continues to be a glimmer of light but in reality, we hear those markets did not develop as quickly as projected and the buyers are currently over bought. While it is still a viable outlet for lower quality product, it isn’t as exciting as it previously has been. Desi chickpeas are currently going in the ground and yet again, no one knows where to value a fall contract. Growers are looking for $0.23-0.25/lb off the farm and buyers say, “It’s too early to know”. This is the perfect scenario for showing an offer at a level that is workable for the farm. Let the buy side know where they need to be and then work it. Best advice today on chickpeas in general…get out your pencil, figure out what makes it work and put that number out there. Current bids on large kabuli chickpeas remain in the $0.23-$0.24/lb range.

The Chinese market is still a popular topic for Canadian peas, as similar issues in the canola market are now posing barriers to peas. Not only that, but throughout the 2018 marketing year, China was importing Canadian peas for pig feed rations. These feed purchases have since stopped, not only because China and the US trying to setup a trade deal, but also because of the swine fever that swept through China’s hog barns killing over 200 million. Despite our pea markets being negatively affected by both India and now China, we did see a price change in yellow peas this week. We have opportunity to trade some volume at $6.75-6.80/bu delivered. Otherwise, prices remained unchanged from last week. Green peas and maple peas, which were once a hot market, have now fallen back in pricing with new crop coming around the corner. Green peas are indicated at $11.50/bu and maple peas at $9.00/bu picked up – that is if you can find a firm bidder. New crop values are $6.00/bu for yellows, $8.00/bu for greens and $9.00/bu for maple peas.

The canaryseed market hasn’t produced any strength over the past few weeks, which leads us to a couple scenarios; 1. stocks are higher than reported (which always seems to be the case) and 2. demand has slowed. Recently, Mexico and Indonesia, two purchasers who have been significant buyers in recent years, have decelerated imports leaving markets stagnant. It seems for canary prices to rise near term, we will have to see some kind of weather issue, here or elsewhere, limiting supply. This, or a drop in seeded acres, which isn’t projected to be the case, may give this market the steam it’s looking for. Prices on new crop canaryseed have been trading between 20 to 21 c/lb FOB the farm with an AOG, while old crop remains in the 22c/lb FOB farm range. Growers may catch slight bumps throughout the summer when buyers need to purchase product, so it is important to keep in touch with your merchant.

Well, another week has come and gone with little change to the oat market. We continue to see pockets of strong prices for milling oats ($3.40/bu delivered) popping up in select locations. These opportunities seem to be short lived and growers should consider making sales on these small rallies to maximize return. On the feed side, the markets are pulling back and slowing down as demand has decreased due to most of the animals feeding on grass now. Expect to see feed pricing in that $2.25 – $2.50/bu picked up on the farm. There are some new crop oat bids floating in at $3/bu and up delivered to plant on milling quality. If you have a target in mind give us a call at 1-800-Ray-Glen (729-4536) and we’d be happy to show it to our buyers.

Flax prices have trended up this week, with $14.00/bu FOB farm trading. New crop prices are slightly lower and tougher to find after recent trade last week and early this week. $12.00/bu picked up with an AOG is the indication in certain areas. The bump in spot bids could be to fill some upcoming sales and the US market is weaker, which has provided some price support for Canada. However, the lull in US flax crushing will put a hold on Canadian imports. Weather permitting, with a larger 2019 Canadian and US flax crop going in, it will only be a matter of time before old crop prices start to line up with the lower new crop values. Chinese demand is slipping, and Russia can likely be accountable on sending sizeable supplies. If you have any off-grade flax or yellow flax in the bins, we have markets available as well, but opportunities are hit and miss.

Soybean market is in grips of the US/China trade talks, just as other North American commodities are. Talks are scheduled for Thurs/Fri in Washington; however, prospects of a deal look shaky after the U.S. threatened new tariffs in response to the Chinese retreating on some of its earlier promises, allegedly. It’s anticipated that the USDA will raise its forecast of ‘18 inventory in Friday’s report due to exports tanking in the absence of a trade deal with China. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.00/bu picked up on farm. Canadian new crop faba acres will increase significantly predicated on lofty old crop bids. Old crop #2 faba bids remain supported near $11/bu FOB farm for good quality whereas new crop #2 bids hover near $7.50/bu FOB farm. North American dry bean export trade isn’t setting any records; however, specialty bean classes continue to show good opportunity.

Over the past week we have seen some renewed interest in red lentils. Does this mean things are opening up in India or is it simply that companies are looking to get business on the books and have grain moving through the plant? Likely the latter, but no matter the reason, the real takeaway here is there has been participation in the market with slight increases in value and producers should take advantage of these bumps. Red lentils seem to be in a bit of tug of war lately; on one side we wonder if the oversupply in Canada will keep prices from rising and the other questions India’s crop condition and whether it is in worse shape than is being discussed. There is also the uncertainty on the outcome of the India election and how it will effect tariffs. In today’s markets, with so much uncertainty, it makes it hard for everyone in the industry to make commitments on marketing their product. Here are the trade numbers from the last week: 19 cents delivered on reds, 20 cents delivered Large greens, 18 cents delivered small greens and US richleas have trade at 13 cents picked up.

Milling spring wheat prices have stumbled a bit this week, as bids into elevators around the prairies continue to soften. Spot bids are sitting in the $6.25-$6.50/bu range delivered into plant, while new crop bids are closer to $6/bu delivered in. These prices are based on #1 grades with a minimum 13.5% protein. Milling durum bids for movement in the new crop year have popped up in the south east at aggressive values so if that sounds like it may be of interest to you be sure to give us a call. Feed wheat prices have continued to be strong as we have seen little change this week. Bids range from $5.40-$5.80/bu picked up on farm with the best prices being closer to Alberta feedlots.

Mustard markets remain relatively stable this week with oriental mustard the only type that has taken a hit. We have yet to hear any reports of areas needing to reseed after the cold spell over the past couple weeks, despite speculation that there may be a few problem locations. Spot contracts are available picked up on your farm at $0.35/lb on yellow, $0.30/lb on brown, and $0.22/lb on oriental based on #1 grades. On the new crop side of things, full crop year movement contracts are available at $0.35/lb on yellow, $0.28/lb on brown, and $0.25-$0.26/lb on oriental depending on variety. If you do run into issues or are looking for some last-minute seed, give us a call and we will try to help you get some certified seed in the drill.

Nothing major really stands out in barley markets this week. Buyers are still looking for product, but not over paying as they know new crop is only a few months away. With that being said, bids are still strong so if you have product left in the bin and needing it moved out before harvest, now might be the best time. New crop bids are holding steady between $3.50-3.90/bu FOB farm for movement before Jan 2020. Old crop bids remain firm at $4.40-$5.00/bu depending on freight, you may find better the further west you go. New crop malt prices are getting few and far between but offers have been somewhat successful in getting product booked – specifically Metcalfe Variety. We also have a couple lots of Certified Copeland variety available if you are needing some.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – May 1, 2019

For another week canaryseed markets fail to deliver the previous highs that producers are searching for. Although they are not reaching the top, bids are still relatively strong, sitting around 22.5 to 23 c/lb FOB farm. New crop bids remain in that 20-21c/lb range with an act of God, in very light trade. The seasonal high that we usually expect this time of year has produced no significant price bump. The recent reports peg seeded acres to be around 229,000, lower than what many experts have estimated. It is only an 8% increase from the 2018 crop year and if correct, may provide strength in price come the 19/20 marketing season.

Some in the trade expect to nearly double the reported 7.8% oat acres increase once the 2019/2020 crop is actually planted.  Even with the Canadian crop acre increase, as well as other world-wide major oat producers increasing acres, supply is still close to record low numbers. With these lows accompanied by higher US corn futures, low carry in oat stock and support of the low value Canadian dollar look to see bullish prices similar to those of 2018-2019 growing season. Pricing this week for milling oats sits around that $3.40/bu delivered into select locations.  Give us a call for site specific opportunities and FOB farm bids. Current feed oat pricing seems to be tightening up with bids harder to find this week. Spot pricing may find you a value around $2.30/bu FOB farm.

StatsCan confirmed our projections last week; pea acres will rise moderately in the 19/20 season. Assuming average yields and reduced export we can expect to have heavy supplies throughout the marketing year. Exports of yellow varieties, now and in the future, will rely heavily on China and their decision to accept Canadian product. For now, uncertainty keeps yellow pea bids low and with India still presenting tariffs, yellow pea bids have been seldom. Currently, we have pricing at $6.00-$6.35/bu FOB and new crop values at $6.00/bu FOB with AOG. Green and maple pea production contracts have seen bids slipping over the past few weeks, as most buyers have been filling their position. That being said, we still have opportunities to make sales at $8.00/bu FOB for greens and $9.00/bu FOB on maples with full act of God clauses. Locking in 10-15 bu/acre is a good play as these are the types of peas that will account for the major increase in acres. Getting your foot in the door and selling a small amount in the fall will ensure you’re not left holding all production until late in the year or potentially sitting on unmarketable product due to oversupply.

Soybean story remains similar to previous weeks in that futures are in a nosedive based on no new trade news and looming US planted acre increase. A soybean acre increase gains credence with each passing day as more US growers align on opinions of a late planting season. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75/bu picked up on farm. Canadian new crop faba acres will increase significantly predicated on lofty old crop bids. Old crop #2 faba bids remain supported near $11/bu FOB farm for good quality whereas new crop #2 bids hover near $7/bu FOB farm. North American dry bean trade remains pedestrian and predictable. Niche bean classes still finding good support in unique export markets.

Milling spring wheat prices remain flat this week despite some small recoveries on the Minneapolis futures. This comes after a significant drop last week, in part due to StatsCan’s expected acreage report showing a 3.8% increase in spring wheat. Current bids sit between $6.50-$6.75/bu delivered to plant in most areas. Despite news of a significant slash to acres, durum prices hold steady around $6.50-$6.75/bu delivered plant, mostly due to large on farm supplies and low global demand. Feed wheat demand has popped up again and prices are stronger at $5.50-$5.90/bu picked up on farm with best prices being on the west side of Saskatchewan and into Alberta. As we get closer to the next growing season, now is a good time to be cleaning up any feed wheat in your bins before we start sliding lower towards new crop bids.

March StatCan planting intentions released on Friday tell quite a different story for chickpeas than initial estimates. The expected reduction is 24.5% from last year which is not a sharp decline (160k acres in 2017, 442K acres in 2018 and 334k acres in 2018). While I am sure you are sick of hearing this same song over and over, chickpea markets are flat and intend to remain this way for the foreseeable. That being said, even with new crop bids hovering at $0.23/lb FOB farm, when compared to a crop with higher input costs or increased acreage intentions, chickpeas are still a front runner as a farm favourite. If contracting a couple bu/acre is in your plan, may be best to set a target offer and present it to the buy side rather than wait for a complete market swing. Be first to market and set your intention.

Flax prices are similar to last week with $13.50/bu delivered to plant on #1 quality still available. For those in the far SE $13.35/bu picked up in the yard for a good milling quality flax is attainable. Movement is pushed out until the late summer months. New crop flax is very hit and miss, especially after last weeks StatsCan report of flax acres increasing by 16.7%. we suspect this could even go higher with the uncertainty surrounding canola. Flax bids in Canada are in a vulnerable position and could dip as we get closer to 2019 new crop. Demand from China & the US is likely to soften in anticipation of the large acreage increase. For now, the tight Canadian supplies are keeping the prices supported. The price behaviour will hold as long as China keeps buying, which is the biggest uncertainty right now.

Barley remains unchanged this week, with bids strong and steady. Despite previous thoughts of weaker pricing come this time of year, buyers are now anticipating bids to hold until at least June, at which point, depending on weather, we could see the dip. This would be in response to new crop ready and coming off in August. As of right now many areas received some sort of moisture over the weekend so things are looking promising. New crop prices for range between $3.50-3.90/bu FOB farm without an act of God depending on the area. Old crop prices hold strong at $4.40-4.75/bu also depending on the area. New crop malt prices are thin, but grower offers seem to be getting product booked – particularly on Metcalfe variety. We have a small amount of certified Metcalfe seed available, so call your merchant if you are interested.

It’s a rough day mid-week for canola as the market has fallen over $5/MT at time of writing. Weakness in the edible oil complex and presumably market reverberation from the government’s increase of the cash advance program seem to be main causes for the slip. Local bids this week range in the low to mid $9’s/bu delivered to facility for product still in the bin, which obviously does not bring any warm and fuzzy feelings. Reports are out that the feds plan not only to send delegations to China to try to sort out these alleged “pest” issues, but they will also explore opening canola sales to other countries. One would suggest exploring exports of canola oil and oil products rather than opening markets for raw canola to keep processing and processing money here, but that is just one man’s opinion. If/when market rallies present themselves, consider making additional sales as these issues don’t look to go away quickly.

There was not a lot of fallout in mustard markets after the Stats Canada seeding intentions report. Estimates at 416,000 acres for 2019 have bids relatively unchanged as buyers largely expected numbers along those lines. A lot of moisture also hit areas this week in many mustard growing regions. Not a lot of details yet on growers having to re-seed, as temperatures dipped very low in the nights following the spring blizzard. As mentioned mustard sees steady bids this week, with virtually no movement on price. Spot values are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 24 cents on oriental, depending on variety.  New crop has been booking as well; yellow trades at 35 cents, brown at 28 cents and 25 cents is available on Cutlass type oriental. If you have Forge or Vulcan, new crop at 26 cents isn’t out of the question.  Certified seed is pretty well wrapped up for the year but if you need some, call and we can try to work something out.  

Red lentils have seen some trades take place between 18 cents FOB and 19¢ delivered to plant. The trade really has not given any indication for the move to the 19 cents, but none the less, that value has traded. Still not a lot of selling happening at these levels as most farmers are more concerned with getting #plant19 started. Talking to clients this week it seems like most producers are sticking to their red lentil seeding plans, but interesting to see how many large greens and small greens will be planted this year. A few clients have put new crop red lentils targets out at 18 cents with an act of God, but buyers aren’t showing much interest. The large green market is stagnant again this week with the highest No. 2 price being 20c delivered and the best new crop bid at 21c for a No.1 and 19c for a No. 2 with no act of God. Reduce those bids by 1c to obtain an AOG. This market will remain slow until we see the overseas market become more trade friendly.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – April 24, 2019

Despite corn being brought in at cheaper values, feed barley prices have ticked up this week. We have been trading feed barley from $4.50/bu -$5.00/bu picked up, with the stronger values in the South West of Saskatchewan. Movement is not quick, but bins are still being cleaned out before the harvest rush. Barley acres will be up this year and according to StatCan, we are going to see an approximate 10% increase. New crop values have slipped slightly, due to increased acreage, and have settled in the range of $3.50/bu – $4.00/bu picked up, for now, depending on location. If you have any feed barley left in the bins, you should be taking advantage of this blip in the market. For Malt barley, new crop contracts are getting seldom to find as current sales are filled. However, we do still have buyers taking offers on Metcalfe variety, so please ask your merchant about throwing up a target.

According to Stats Canada, 2019 dry pea acreage will pencil out around 4 million, up roughly 420,000ac from last year and an 11% increase in seeded area. When compared to the 5-year average of 3,956,000, this number doesn’t seem as daunting, but we expect yellow pea carryout to be heavy while green and niche pea stocks to be tight. Increased acreage is mainly going to consist of green peas and specialty peas. Green pea spot prices trade around $13.00/bu FOB today, while new crop green peas have been in light trade with bids sitting around $8.00/bu FOB. Interest in new crop green peas has faded, because of the expected acreage increase.  Yellow peas have been hovering around the $6.00/bu FOB mark, with both producers and buyers reluctant to do any business. The yellow pea market still hangs on Chinese political turmoil and demand, which doesn’t look like it will be sorted out any time soon. Specialty pea programs such as maple, duns and marrowfats are available as well.

Well… it’s dropped, the Stats Canada Seeding intentions report for this coming year, that is. We look to see an 8% up tic in seeded canaryseed, pushing the total to 229 thousand acers. This is par with our expectations in the Rayglen office and an increase from last year, but still below the five-year average of 268 thousand acres. The prognostication of these numbers will keep supplies “tight” moving forward, but as we all know there’s always more canary in the bins than is reported, so pricing will likely stay flat. Currently, canary seed is trading in that 22.5 to 23 cents/lb picked up, with new crop pricing in that 21cents/lb range FOB farm.

Milling wheat prices have fallen off this week on multiple factors including the release of the StatsCan acreage report (Minneapolis) and uncertainty around our trading partners such as China (KC & Chicago). Prices range from $6.50-$6.75/bu delivered on a #1 HRS.  #1 Durum falls into the same price range. CPS wheat and SWS remain strong at the $6.00/bu mark. Feed wheat prices remain aggressive at $5.40-$5.75/bu picked up in the yard depending on location. New crop prices are under $5.00/bu so selling what is in the bin makes sense. The StatsCan report came out this morning and wheat acres are slated to be up 3.8% from 2018, with spring wheat up approximately 12% and durum falling almost 19%. This is the largest decline in durum acres since 2010. During this seeding season, keep up to date on price alerts and make sure you are on our text or email list.

StatsCan’s 2019 Seeding Intentions estimates came out this morning giving the markets a general idea of farmers intentions this spring.  Flax acres will see an increase of 16.7% over last year according to the report.  The seed acres are in line with the five-year average.  Does this increase affect the market place? If the intentions are correct, an average yield is obtained, and the market remains cautious then yes, we may see some downward pressure. The markets have been range bound all year with number 1 grade flax demanding more attention than the milling market. The new crop market so far has been relatively quiet with only a couple buyers seeming to have interest in locking up acres. Now with the news of an increase in acres and buyers still uncertain with what the Chinese market will do, this will not get buyers excited to lock in acres. We will likely see the industry take a wait and see approach on locking up new crop. There a few new crop bids at or over $12.50 FOB farm with an act of God, this is a good hedge especially in today’s market place. $13-$13.50/bu has been a common trading range this week on both yellow and brown spot purchases, although trade is slow as supplies seem to be tight.

Seeded lentil acres are projected to be down just shy of 10% from last year at 3.4 million in Canada as per the Statcan estimates from this week. With large expected carryout and an average production this reduction in acres is a step in the right direction to solving oversupply issues but help from other parts of the world cutting production would be appreciated. We went looking for lentil bids, but only found tumbleweeds as of late. In all seriousness the current indications are at the 18 cent range on a #2 red with new crop interest around 17 cents. Large greens are at 20 cents delivered to plant on a #2 and new crop indications are 21/18 FOB on #1/#2. Small greens prices are the toughest to track down, but recently around 17/15 on #1/#2 delivered, while there has been some new crop interest at 18/16 on #1/#2 floating around.

The canola market, which has been slowly trending downward over the past few weeks, managed a very slight bump of $1.30-$2.00/MT on the futures board today with StatsCan releasing their intended acreage report. Canola acres are expected to be down 6.6% from last year, totalling 21.3 million acres. If this number turns out to be accurate, this will be the lowest amount of canola acres Canada has seeded since 2016 and 1.6% lower than our 5-year average. Despite this news, high ending stocks and political concerns with China appear poised to keep the canola market down pricewise for the near future. $10/bu bids appear to be off the table in most areas, but if you come across any local specials it may be time to consider moving some production before we see new crop product start creeping into the market in the coming months. 

Chickpea acres are expected to be down next year which is no surprise to anyone. Initial reports early 2019 toted 58% decrease, when todays reports show 25%. When running the numbers on crop planning the chickpea still gives a favourable return and when trying to cut back costs, growers tend to seed inventory. While production contract values hover in the $0.22-0.23/lb range it is a point of conversation as to whether or not to put a few bushels under your belt if it pencils out. China is not an importer of chickpeas so that economic threshold is not an issue, but the numbers are clear. On average, Canadian chickpea seeded acreage is 150-160,000. Last year Canada planted 334k with strong support and the coming year is looking closer to 176k with little support from the export market and a large carry. Unless there is a significant increase in export capacity it will be some time before we see prices of yesteryear.

Soybean futures continue to tumble close to levels seen last harvest. Trade talk conjecture continues to kick the can down the road with a glimmer of hope coming from the announcement of two more rounds of trade talks scheduled with China. The US domestic story remains the same with heavy carryout and a strong likelihood of increased planted acres. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.60/bu picked up on farm. Canadian faba bean seeded acres are forecast to increase to 121,500 acres, 56% more than last year. The largest increase was in Saskatchewan with an 87% jump while Alberta acreage is forecast to rise 44%. Old crop #2 faba bids remain supported near $11/bu FOB farm for good quality whereas new crop #2 bids hover near $7/bu FOB farm. Canadian dry bean acres are forecast to drop 8% to 325,000 acres; which could provide a sideways market barring an impactful weather event.

Oats are flat for another week with the majority of futures months finishing in the green. With the 2017/2018 oat crop being smaller than anticipated due to poor yield across the prairies, the production is down 8%. The stronger prices in the fall have leveled off for the most part. StatCan seeding intentions report came out this morning (Wednesday) and it shows that oat acres are surprisingly coming in below what they had thought. We may see another push in price this fall if acres are estimated correctly. Pricing this week on good quality #2CW have been sitting around $3/bu FOB farm but depending on your area, you may capture a higher bid due to freight advantages. Feed oats are between $2.40-2.60/bu FOB farm on dry and heavy product. We do still have seed and new crop pricing available if you are looking.

The Stats Canada seeding intentions have just been released, and it is showing a mustard seeded area of 416,000 acres. This is down 17% from last year. Based on average the 2019 crop would reach around 160,00 tonnes, about 8-10% less than last year, meaning stocks could remain relatively stable for next year. Mustard has seen some steady bids this week. No movement either way. Seeding is now underway in Alberta and some areas of southwest Saskatchewan.  Spot prices are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 24 cents on oriental, depending on variety.  New crop bookings have been still trading as mustard is still one of the bright spots for the 2019 planting season on a dollar per acre return basis. Now we need rain!  Yellow has slipped slightly to 35 cents, brown has also slipped to 28 cents, and 25 cents is available on Cutlass type oriental. If you have Forge or Vulcan, new crop at 26 cents is available. Certified seed is pretty well wrapped up for the year but if you need some, call and we can try to work something out for shipping.  

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – April 17, 2019

Stats Can has reported that the 2017/2018 oat crop year had a decreased production of 8% to 3.4 MMT due smaller crop and poor yield. The total supply is down by 5%. The projected export for oats is expected to be down again, with about 90% of oats from Canada headed south to the USA.  The other 10% are headed to Mexico, Japan and south Korea. StatsCan also reports that the Canadian oat price is expected to rise because of a higher US futures price and a struggling Canadian dollar. The world oat stocks are expected to rise in the 2018/2019 crop year, but they are still estimated to be close to record lows. Pricing on oats has not changed much from last week. A good quality #2 CW has been trading around that $3.00/bu mark. Feed oats have been trading around $2.50-$2.65 range depending on location. We have seen small premiums pop up for feed oats throughout the year so keep in touch with your merchant.

As we hear more about seeding intentions, we confirm an increase pea acreage. Although yellow acres are expected to drop, green and other classes will rise. According to Stat reports, the breakdown is as follows: a 23% increase in greens and 27% increase in other classes, with yellows boasting a strong carryout into the 2019-2020 marketing year, leaving supply relatively comfortable despite a loss in seeded acreage. This week, yellow pea bids have softened further on recent news out of China. Peas will fall under strict scrutiny and must pass pest and disease inspections before clearing customs. It’s stated that shipments unable to pass these inspections will be rejected or destroyed. Another political strong arm?… it sure seems like it, but we will have to play the game for now. That being said, yellow pea bids fall around (and in some cases lower than) $6/bu FOB farm on both new and old crop. Growers may still catch slightly better values in certain areas and should take those opportunities if they arise. We still have a buyer looking at green pea targets around $13.00/bu FOB on old crop with new crop at $8.00/bu FOB. With acres being up and many previously contracted, new crop green and maple peas have been softening.

Chickpeas have been a renewed topic of conversation this week from the producer side, as it seems growers are in a mind frame to empty out some bins. The market is positioned to buy, but the bids have either remained the same or softened. News from India is that pulse production was down in the Rabi harvest but only by about 10% and predominantly in gram. As that settles in, we wait for the results of the looming election in the hopes that it could shock the market into life again. Current crop values at $0.23-0.24/lb FOB for nearby movement and new crop is $0.22-0.23/lb FOB with an AOG. Feed values are at $0.14-0.16/lb FOB depending on the end user and factors that make the product feed. Desi chickpea values have not moved, and new crop is still to early to price out according to the buyers.

The Canola market continues its sideways/slowly leaking action as the market continues to lack any good news. Weakness in canola can be attributed to obvious issues with China, pressure from weak soybean markets and heavier than normal carryover. The dark cloud hanging over canola right now will, without a doubt, reduce some of the intended seeded acres for canola this year, but many expect the effect to not carry too much weight as other options are limited at this point. It’s hard to find a crop to point at and say “this, grow this” in the current market situation, so many opt to stick with the status quo. If you can find a $10/bu price on remaining canola stocks this may be a prudent move to sell and rip the band aid off given our current conditions. New crop pricing is sub $10 in most areas.

Wheat futures took a bit of a tumble yesterday, but as we write, seem to gain back some ground. We are still on the hunt for some high protein (14%+) milling hard red spring wheat delivered to plant in various locations this week and bids are indicated in the low $7/bu range. 14.5% pro and higher may provide a better value as well; it will all depend on what was previously bought that week. Durum continues to hover around $6.50/bu delivered plant range, with slightly better binds in some areas. Durum remains in light trade as you can expect. On the feed side of wheat, prices range in that $5.40 – $5.80/bu FOB farm range. One thing to keep an eye on moving forward is the continued dry weather conditions in many areas of the province. Should these conditions continue watch for a positive impact on feed prices moving forward.

Soybean futures are running for the doors today based no new trade talk news and the ever-mounting risk of increased US planted acres due to weather issue and planting delays. African swine flu continues to be a growing concern for reduced Chinese soybean imports. Old crop remaining inventory continues to hang over the market which feels heavier with every forecast of increased planted acres. Soybean local bids are trading under $10.00/bu picked up on farm. Old crop faba bean market remains the same with buyers on the lookout for scarcely remaining #2 quality with bids in that $11/bu delivered range and feed fabas are in the range of $6/bu picked up. North American bean market has a squared S&D which could provide for a sideways market barring an impactful weather event.

This week we continue to see a down trend in malt and feed barley prices. With the increase in not only feed barley acres, but also in corn acres, prices are expected to drop further barring any major production hiccups. If you are putting in barley this year, you may want to consider locking up some production as prices are still pretty attractive. New crop feed barley trades at $3.75-$4.40/bu FOB farm depending on freight, which in some cases includes an act of God up to 45bu/acre. New crop malt bids are available as well, but value will depend on variety and location; please call for more information. These malt contracts do not include an act of God. Spot prices right now on feed are between $4.30-$4.75/bu FOB farm.

Looking at the historical data on Canaryseed over the past 5 years, markets have had little fluctuation. The highest price was $0.27 and the lowest $0.19, with the average sitting around $0.22. This consistency in price proves that the supply and demand over the past five years is at an equilibrium. During the summer of 2015 we saw the last major price jump in the market as buyers were worried about a canary shortage. As the summer played out, buyers realized that there was more canary in the bin than thought and the high price disappeared.  Canary has always been an under reported crop and this could be part the of the reason why we don’t see the big spikes anymore, as buyers are never all that concerned that we will run out. Canary is like the little boy that cried wolf, no one believes the story anymore. The markets at this time seems to be finding enough canary to fill the needs at $0.23-$0.235 picked up, higher than the five-year average – consider a sale.  With the speculation of an increase in seeded acres this will also play a part in keeping markets from rising. Selling today is a good way to generate some cash for spring as most buyers are taking quick movement which cannot be said for a lot of other commodities.   

Lentil bids have remained sluggish despite a bit of positive news coming out of India this week. The country’s National Bulk Handling Corporation (NBHC) released its final report on the Rabi crop estimates, stating a further drop off on expected production. They’re expecting an 11.46% drop on pulses this Rabi crop, due mostly to a significant decrease in black gram production, one of India’s most popular pulses. That being said, there is still significant stock of lentils on farm in Canada and import tariffs into India for the foreseeable future that will make any price increases a slow grind. Spot red lentil bids today are hovering around $0.18/lb picked up on farm. Large green bids are around $0.19/lb picked up for a #2 and small green bids are at $0.175/lb delivered plant on a #1.

Brown flax has seen a little spurt in pricing over the last week with $13.50/bu delivered to plant for #1 quality available. We are also seeing up to $13.00/bu delivered for new crop, with an act of God. Yellow flax is mostly sideways with $13.00-$13.25/bu picked up in the yard being the high. Flax supplies are tightening up and providing support for the market. Analysts report that 47% of on-farm supplies have been delivered, up from the 40% delivered last year. There is softer export demand, but hopeful China does not completely back away from Canadian flax to keep exports on pace. The US market is flat, and the latest USDA report shows a 66% increase in flax acres. This would reduce Canadian exports for 2019/20. The take-away is that Chinese trade is cautious, US and European demand has been on the sidelines and so the lack of demand will put a hold on potential gains in prices. Any upside swings in prices will remain modest.

Mustard is still range bound this week, but we have seen softening on production contract prices. There is some talk about a slight shift in mustard acres because of the canola issues with China. We are not seeing a big migration as most growers are not jumping the gun and switching, but perhaps there has been a few. We will see how this pans out over the next couple of weeks as seeding is starting in some areas of Alberta. Spot prices are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 24 cents on oriental, depending on variety.  New crop bookings have been fairly steady as mustard is still one of the bright spots for the 2019 planting season.  Yellow has slipped slightly to 35 cents, brown has also slipped to 28 cents, and 25 cents is available on Cutlass type oriental. If you have Forge or Vulcan, new crop at 26 cents is available. Certified seed is pretty well wrapped up for the year but if you need some, call and we can try to work something out for shipping.  

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – April 10, 2019

Chickpea overseas markets remain quiet with values scaling back to the Canadian grower around $0.24/lb off the farm. It seems the Indian election about to happen is buzz worthy news, but since desi chickpea values are cheaper than a kabuli today, there is little incentive for the Indian government to lift restrictions for trade. We have already been seeing the word “drought” be tossed around in weather predictions, but general feel is that it is premature. Expect old and new crop values to remain in the current range as there is a lot of global supply that needs to be worked through before we see any firm trend upwards.

The pea markets are showing a bunch of uncertainty for the future with India and China. Due to these constraints, buyers have been cautious with their bids. Unfortunately, we aren’t expecting a quick fix to these overseas markets either.  Currently, yellow peas are trading at $6.25-6.50 FOB on old crop and new crop values are trading at $6/bu. However, we have seen some buyers push bids down into the 5’s. Green peas historically still sitting at favorable values of $8/bu FOB on new crop and old crop is trading at $14/bu delivered into the South West of Saskatchewan. Taking advantage of any old crop green pea sales would be beneficial as we have seen some buyers considering closing the gap between old crop and new.

This week we are seeing a bit of a pull back on barley. With this beautiful weather, southern Alberta has started seeding, which means new crop is only a few months away. At this point buyers are starting to get covered until new crop comes off, so they are not as “hungry” for barley. Corn is also trading for lower values, which in turn brings down our barley market. Spot contracts right now are sitting between $4.30-4.70/bu FOB farm, on min 42mt loads. If you are on road bans that may affect your price due to dead freight. New crop values are still available at $3.85/bu FOB farm with an act of God for Jan-Mar movement. New crop malt is also still available with prices ranging from $4.90-5.30/bu FOB farm depending on movement and freight.

Mustard remains stable this week. The problems with China and canola continue and it’s starting to look like a quick resolution will not be reached as once hoped. Will we see a last-minute shift into some mustard acres? A cheap to grow alternative with good returns? We will see how this pans out over the next couple of weeks. New crop bookings have been fairly steady as mustard is still one of the bright spots for the 2019 planting season.  Contracts are available up to 36 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 26 cents on new crop Forge or Vulcan type oriental. If you have Cutlass, new crop at 25 cents is available. Spot prices are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 24 cents on oriental, depending on variety. Seed is pretty well wrapped up for the year and we thank you for your continued support! 

Canola right now is in a whirlwind as we creep closer to seeding and China plays chicken with Canadian supply. There has definitely been a reaction from the industry by a reconsideration of oilseed rotation as well as a softening on the market on the buy side. There were several contracts written last week based off of $10/bu FOB farm offers for 4th quarter 2019 and first quarter 2020 as the uncertainty grows day by day. It is a general consensus that China will return to trade but when they do it will be on their terms and at what they feel the value is. Spot values hover at that $10-10.20/bu delivered facility and recommendation is to consider putting in targets for deferred delivery programs.

Milling wheat prices remain low this week as markets have not reacted much to recent news. Bids for #1 hard red spring wheat are ranging from mid-$6’s to low $7’s delivered to elevator with the latter being in light trade for high protein markets. Durum indications remain in the mid $6/bu territory as of late. Feed wheat bids are still touching the $6/bu mark in certain areas of the province where freight allows, which is why we are seeing lower quality wheat and durum getting moved into the feed market still. In less attractive freight areas the feed bids are closer to $5.50/bu range as of late. Depending how dry this spring carries on we may see some renewed feed interest as we move towards the summer.   

Very little news on canary seed this week as bids have remained stagnant. Old crop canary seed is trading between 23-23.5 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location. We are in line with five-year average canary seed exports at 74,600 MT and with buyers not needing to reach up for product we may not be as tight on stocks as originally thought. New crop bids are still showing 21 cents/lb picked up on farm for a September – December movement. These contracts include a full Act of God clause, including drought, on the first 10 bu/acre.

There has been some movement of flax funnelling into the west coast indicating that the Chinese demand is still around. Though, many are cautious due to the recent trading circumstances.  This coupled with a decreased supply level on the farm and underreported stock, Canadian supplies are becoming a bit more restricted thus providing some market support.  Somewhat concerning is the recent USDA report that shows a large uptick in flax acres.  The increased tonnage may be enough to reduce import requirements.  As such, expect to see the bidding soften as Canada relies heavily on the US.  Flax is currently trading at $13.50/bu delivered to multiple Saskatchewan locations.

As fast as lentils moved up in price it disappeared again. Lentils are just going to remain unstable until foreign markets start taking product.  Most buyers are only buying what they need, so most bids are for a specific tonnage amount and once they fill, deal is done. We saw the price increase in the red lentil market last week due to a processing advantage, however, there are reports of increased Indian values, which drove the North American. This was speculation that the Indian harvest may not be producing as well as hoped. As the week went on the markets topped out and have now slipped again. The lentil market has a bunch of unknowns and until it’s sorted out we will remain to see fluctuations. Once the market gets a handle on actual yields in India, the outcome from the India elections and the Canadian seed acreage, we may have a clearer picture of future bids. With markets moving as much as they are, staying in touch with your merchant will give you the best information on what is taking place and when to take advantage of small rallies. 

Steady as she goes in the oat market.  Prices have not fluctuated very much in the past week. Oat prices have been trading between $2.50 – $2.65/bu based off feed quality specs. Good quality milling oats have been trading around $3.00/bu FOB the farm.  Oat prices have not been affected by the overseas issues that have come up in the past few months. Of course, the closer you are to Manitoba the better the price will be due to freight advantages. There also are some buyers who will look at a bit of new crop; call your Rayglen merchant for details and a price in your area.

Soybeans are trading range-bound with the threat of trending lower. Lack of fresh export news out of China this week as trade talks continue has traders wondering how many more acres could move to beans on planting delays with corn and spring wheat. Old crop soybean carryout is still burdensome. USDA’s April report yesterday didn’t have any major surprises and more soybean acres are likely to be planted than the USDA indicated in the end of March report.  Rallies on a trade deal with China are the best hope. Soybean local bids are trading at $10.15/bu picked up on farm. Old crop faba bean market remains the same with buyers on the lookout for scarcely remaining #2 quality with bids in that $11/bu delivered range and feed fabas are in the range of $6/bu picked up. European demand for Canadian white beans remains solid and should provide on-going new crop support.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

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