• AG BROKERS WITH AN EDGE
Submit Your Grain Offer

Grain News

Rayglen Market Comments – February 6, 2019

Not a big change in oats from week to week as markets and consequently bids stay strong. As mentioned, oat stocks are down 19.7% as of Dec.31st 2018, which is propping this market up. We are even seeing strong feed values, which range between $2.75 to $3.00/bu FOB farm. Tough to ignore those numbers if you have some off-spec product. Feed buyers are really only looking for a heavy and dry feed oat and not much else. Milling quality remains range bound between $3.00 to $3.50 per bushel FOB the farm, with bids conditional to freight costs and distance to plant. If you are looking for prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant for the most up to date information.

Statistics Canada has released their “Canada’s Stocks of Principal Field Crops” report and field pea stocks, as of Dec.31/2108, have dropped by 11.4% from the same time as last year. This equates to roughly 2.5MMT left in farm bins. We can only guess that the majority of these are yellow peas, as greens and “others” seem to be thin. Yellow peas have been trading around $7.00 FOB farm as of late, with a $0.50/bu premium for product with high dry matter protein; call your merchant to discuss this opportunity. Green peas have shot up over the last week and have been trading as high as $12.00 FOB on a good quality #2 Canada grade. We suspect this uptick is due to the previous stated fact that on farm stocks of greens are dwindling. What caused this lack of green peas? Less seeded area and lower yields.

Some speculation is now building as to where the acres will be for mustard in 2019. 2 ways this can go… flat or down. Up is not an option by the looks of it here at Rayglen. This has not affected the price and things remain flat for now. Growers are weighing their planting options now that we are into February and mustard remains a very strong option held in comparison to other crops. All new crop bids listed are for full crop year, have an act of God and are FOB farm. Shorter movement and price discounts are available: Yellow is at 35 cents, brown continues at 30 and oriental is at 28 for Forge or Vulcan varieties while Cutlass at 26 cents. Spot pricing again is the same this week with yellow mustard trades at 35c/lb depending on movement and brown at 29-30c/lb. Oriental Mustard remains at around 24 cents as recent sales continue to pressure the price a bit. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard along with financing options.

Not much excitement in flax prices over the last couple weeks. Deliveries of flax during the front half of January have not translated into stronger export movement. This will eventually move offshore or to the US, but for now inventories sit and build in elevators. Milling quality flax is anywhere from $13.00/bu-$13.35 picked up in the yard with no immediate movement, while #1 brown flax stays steady at $13.25/bu delivered to plant. Yellow flax markets also remain quiet with soft indications of $13.00/bu picked up. Ag Canada estimates 2019 seeded acres to increase 15%, Stats Can will release that report April 24. These numbers could change depending on new crop price projections going forward. The remainder of the year should see neutral prices as long as the presence of Russian flax continues exports to China.

Lentil markets are starting to lose steam again compared to a month ago. Reds have slipped from as little as half a penny to as much as a whole penny throughout the province as larger quantities were bought up and positions seem to be filled. Large green lentils have also pulled back and the number of buyers even looking to purchase at this time is thin. Small green lentils are in the same state as the large greens, with very little change in value and a lack of purchaser’s present in the market place. This is usually a difficult time to move small green lentils though, as most sales take place after harvest and before Christmas. Look to spring time for a potential upswing and further sales. The markets seem to be very uncertain with everyone waiting on India to make their next move. Early reports suggest that the pigeon crop may produce less than expected, which may help the large green market. The red crop may not be as bad as what was first perceived as cooler temperatures and possible rain on the horizon may help prevent any more yield loss. Until things get sorted out in India, don’t expect much to change; markets will remain slow and steady.

The canaryseed market has held onto its recent strength as bids remain flat this week. The fact that the CDN dollar has been picking up steam and our bids have not slipped at all is a signal that the canary market is very unlikely to swing the wrong way before the new crop year. In fact, expect action in the canary market in the next month or two as buyers gear up for the usually stronger spring shipping season. Spot bids right now are around $0.23/lb picked up in your yard depending on location while new crop bids have remained flat at $0.20/lb fob farm with a full Act of God clause.

The feed wheat market has been a little stronger in recent weeks due to multiple factors such as increased malting exports and a cold weather snap, seemingly getting the feeders a little more aggressive for coverage. We are seeing some lower grade milling quality wheat and durum get pushed into the feed market as prices are high and movement windows are better than what the milling markets will offer at this time. Current bids range from $5.60 to $6/bu picked depending on where your farm is located and the corresponding freight costs.  The world wheat markets are pretty sideways as an abundance of product from the US is hanging over the market keeping prices from coming up despite a smaller supply from Russia. Durum stocks in Canada are high, but despite that we have seen a few buyers with some bids in select areas for summer and fall months in recent weeks.

Another week has gone by for the canola market with little change occurring in futures or cash price.  Futures continue to trade in a sideways fashion while cash nearby canola is still hovering around $10.50-10.65/bu delivered plant.  June pricing continues to fetch a premium hovering around $11.00/bu delivered plant with both prices varying by location due to local basis levels or special pricing that some locations may experience.  All this being said, Statistics Canada reported record high canola stocks as of December 31st at 14.5 MMT, but these numbers were in line with what the trade was expecting giving little reason for much upside price movement at this time. Depending on your sold position, growers that have not made many sales may want to consider taking advantage of the summer values. That is if you can hold canola that long while taking some marketing risk off the table. There is little bullish news surrounding the current canola market, which could mean some downside or continued sideways grinding going forward. If this is the case, there isn’t much incentive holding onto large amounts of canola with little upside potential.

Not only is the majority of Saskatchewan under a deep freeze, so is the chickpea market! Values have a holding pattern week after week in the hopes that news from another part of the globe might strike a rally. Talk of 2019/2020 acres going in without production contracts is common as is the hope of bids getting to $0.30/lb. There could be some opportunity for the grower to enter into a “sized” contract where the product is cleaned and sized before delivery, but even that is sub $0.30/lb today. Old crop is in the same position. No change to values, no change to movements. Cargo is slowly starting to clean up from last years contracts and as these complete it could trigger buying interest from the market. Keeping in mind there is still a lot of chickpeas out there so hitting targets is key when trying to capture value. Expect to find opportunity and not complete market shifts.

Barley remains a bright spot in the markets as we continue to see strong demand on expected tighter ending stocks (approx. 1MMT lower that the previous 2 years). Also providing support is a prevalent corn market, which props up the barley market due to the simple fact that it is a cheaper substitute. The only potential issue we will start to see now, is movement periods getting pushed further and further out. Soon feed buyers will be bidding into road ban season, where values will fade due to freight disadvantages. That being said, if you are looking to move product out before road bans hit, it may be wise to lock in your product today. Pricing ranges between $4.35-$4.75/bu FOB farm for Feb-Mar movement as we write. We also have new crop prices on feed barley, in some cases with an act of god, so be sure to talk to your merchant on that. New crop malt barley contracts have started to hit the books, with an indicated bid of $5.25/bu; please contact the office for more details. We also have the option of firm offers, which are a great way to get product booked and to catch a high in the market.

Soybeans futures have seen three consecutive days of small gains. In the absence of validated export/production data due to US government shutdown, the market is cautiously speculating on recent soybean exports to China and confirmation of a smaller 2018 US crop. Furthermore, the Brazilian soybean crop is forecast to be smaller. The fact is that soybean fundamentals remain heavy, but chart technical analysis is showing signs of life. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.50/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market continues to have buyers looking for export quality. Local faba bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $10.50/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 FOB farm. Dry bean new crop contracts are now available with options for a few classes of beans.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 30, 2019

Let’s talk chickpeas. Ag Canadas predictions show a decrease in acres of up to 58%, with Mexico showing a similar percentage of decline and India down only 10% from last year. India has been reporting rains in the Northern parts of the country, but the bulk of acres are in the West. Southern India is still very dry, and yields are being reported as “poor”.  The prices remain steady this week as supplies remain ample. If any strength in this market is to appear, expect it in the deferred months of 2019. Current values, Orion/Leaders trading between $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm #2 quality and Frontiers at a $.02/lb discount. New crop valued at $0.25-$0.26/lb with an AOG.

The barley market is fairly flat this week. Buyers are practically full for any movement in February as their demand has been filled, but with that being said, the forecast looks to be fairly cold so supply may be “eaten” up pretty quickly. Buyers are looking at March to move product at around $4.50/bu FOB farm depending on freight. If you can move grain on primary weights from April-June you will see a premium, as most will be on road bans at that time. If you are looking to move product before the winter weights come off, you should contract right away as buyers are getting filled up. New crop barley contracts on both feed and malt are available so talk with your merchant if you are interested. Also, we have a good supply of malt/ feed seed available.

As plans for the 2019/2020 growing season get penciled out, there have been new crop contracts coming to the market. Yellow peas have opportunities at $7/bu picked up with an Act of God and green peas at $9/bu delivered. However, where most of the interest lies is in the maple pea market, with bids at $10.50-11/bu picked up with an Act of God. For growers looking to get into new seed we still have a supply of yellow peas and green peas available, speak with your merchant on which variety is looking most promising for your area. The old crop market hasn’t overly changed from last week. Yellow peas are trading at $7.25/bu delivered, green peas at $11/bu picked up and maple peas at $15.50/bu picked up.

Flax pries have little change this week, even though the latest StatsCan report shows the smallest inventories since 2004. Milling flax is down slightly with prices in the $13.00-$13.35/bu range picked up in the yard, while #1 quality is still sideways at $13.25/bu delivered. Yellow flax also remains unchanged with a few buyers at $13.00/bu picked up in the right area. There are some options for new crop and seed, so call your Rayglen merchant for details. Imports of flax to China rose in December, but it’s also clear that Russian flax is moving in place of Canadian flax. December data shows that Russian flax exports accounted for 29,000 tonnes, while Canada was at 44,000 tonnes. With volumes up in China, the markets have weakened again. Stocks in Kazakhstan are blurred, so availability still remains unknown. Some analysts’ best guess is in the 500,000 tonnes range. Canadian prices are not likely to change until Russian exports decline.

Canola values continue their sideways pattern over the last week with not much change occurring.  Prices for nearby delivery are hovering around $10.65/bu delivered plant with summer months still tradable at $11.00-$11.10/bu delivered plant depending on location.  Values could differ from location to location, due to basis level differences or some companies offering specials.  New crop canola values have also seen little change with bids still hovering around the $10.60/bu delivered plant range. Growers with little canola on the books may want to look at summer month prices to increase sales if $11.00/bu is attainable.  We could see this market stay on its current path, which is grinding sideways.

Another stable week for red and large green lentils with no real movement in price. Small greens remain very quiet with not many buyers looking purchase. There was a little interest in new crop Beluga lentils as well this week, but that demand is thin. Talking with many of our buyers they seem to be finding homes other than India for the reds, while having a tougher time with moving large and small greens, as it seems they have gone into winter hibernation. If the pigeon pea crop is not great in India, then the laird lentil should have a little more interest, as they will need a substitute. As for the stable red market, we still wait for more information to come out of India on their yield and quality. They have been receiving some rain and cooler temperatures helping to prevent more yield loss than initially expected. Thought of the week is that lentils will remain stable with slight jumps as more market information comes available out of India.

Soybean futures have traded slightly up this week despite little expectation from resumed trade talks between U.S. and China. Market expects both a smaller Brazilian crop (harvest underway) and confirmation of smaller 2018 U.S. crop. That being said, it is also expected that diminished Chinese demand will be accepted and offset the lower U.S. production. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.50/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market is still searching for export quality, which is proving to be elusive. Local faba bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $10/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 FOB farm. Dry bean new crop contracts are now available with options for a few classes of beans.

This past week continues with similar pricing on all mustards. As previously predicted, a flat trend is strongly in place. We have seen increased seed sales this week as new crop bids on 2019 mustard have started trading. Mustard remains a very strong option held in comparison to other crops. All new crop bids listed are for full crop year, have an act of God and are FOB farm. Shorter movement and price discounts are available: Yellow is at 35 cents, brown continues at 30 and oriental is at 28 for Forge or Vulcan varieties while Cutlass at 26 cents. Spot pricing again is flat this week with yellow mustard trades at 35c/lb depending on movement and brown at 29-30c/lb. Oriental Mustard remains at around 24 cents as recent sales have pressured the price a bit. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard along with financing options.

Canadian oat production has decreased over the past year by 8% according to Ag Canada, due to less seeded acres and lower yield. Supply of oats has decreased by 5% to 4.2 million tonnes. Domestic use is set to decrease by 17% because of lower feed use. The Canadian oat price is projected to increase in relation to oat futures and a lower Canadian dollar.  The Canadian oat export market to the USA is ahead of the 5-year average so far this crop year. For the 2018/2019 projected crop, oat shipment to the USA is expected to increase even more. As for price on feed oats, they have been trading between $2.50 – $3.00/bushel FOB.  As for good quality milling oats, they have been trading around $3.00 to $3.50/bushel FOB depending on location. Please call your Rayglen merchant for prices in your area.

The feed wheat market has strengthened up some recently with bids up into the high $5’s and even touching 6 bucks on the far west side of Sask, heading into Alberta. Current bids on #1 CWRS 13.5 are about $7.25 delivered to elevator and if you are interested in a FOB farm price, we should be able to work something back to your farm. World wheat stocks are said to be getting tighter, but whenever we hear those words we always seem to be a few short months away from an oversupply so taking advantage might make some sense today. Wheat acres are expected to climb going into seeding 2019 likely by the million acres that durum is projected to lose.

The canaryseed market has shown definite strength this week as bids are coming out at least a cent higher than we had been seeing. As discussed last week, our export numbers have been at the highest pace we have seen since 2014/2015 and this is a big reason for the price optimism we are currently experiencing. Trades have been taking place this week as high as 23.5 cents/lb FOB farm in strong freight areas. We are still getting new crop bids at 20 cents/lb FOB farm for a Sept/Dec movement window, with a full AOG. This canaryseed market may provide a good opportunity to put in a target above market so give your merchant or the office a call.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 23, 2019

Canadian oat production in 2018 decreased by 8% from the previous year due to less harvested area and poorer yields. Because of the smaller crop, supply is down by 5.5% to 4.2 MMT. The total domestic use of oats is expected to decline by 12.5% although more oats are being used in the milling market and stocks are expected to get tighter as the year goes on. A weaker Canadian dollar is making USA business more appealing to traders. Pricing on feed quality oats has been trading around $2.50 to $3.00/bu FOB farm depending on your location. As for a good quality #2 CW Oats, bids range from $3.25 to $3.50 FOB. The closer you are to Manitoba, the better pricing you will receive. It is best to call your Rayglen merchant for the most up to date pricing in your area.

The pea market has not been overly volatile the past couple of weeks. Overseas demand has been holding firm, mainly China, while India has not changed any import tariffs. India may not see any change until their upcoming election. However, we have seen more new crop contracts with an Act of God coming to light. Yellow peas are trading at $7/bu picked up on both old crop and new crop in a few areas of Saskatchewan. Green peas are still trading at $11/bu delivered; with new crop contracts closer to the $8.50 value. As for maple peas, there has been increased interest, with old crop trading at $15.50-16/bu and new crop values at $10.50-11/bu picked up. Seed is seldom to find but we do have limited supply available for those looking to get into maple peas. We also still have a supply of yellow and green varieties.

Another year of the Crop Production show came and went last week in Saskatoon and with that, prices remain sideways with no major changes. #1 quality of flax is still $13.25/bu delivered to plant, while milling quality has seen upwards of $13.50/bu picked up for movement out to June. Yellow flax prices remain soft, with indications of $13.00/bu picked up.  We are seeing a couple more bids pop up on new crop brown flax with an act of God at $12.50/bu. The long-term outlook for flax remains friendly as supplies tighten up and the possibility of limited production in 2019.  However, export shipments are keeping bids at a lull, along with supplies in the Black Sea region. Chinese prices have also come off the earlier highs as warehouses have received stock from late November shipments. For those with off-grade flax in the bins or higher moisture, we still have options, call your Rayglen merchant for more details.

Feed barley is flat this week. Buyers are bought up for January now and looking into February forward for product.  If you want to have your product moved out before the road bans come on, you should lock it up sooner than later, before buyers are full and can’t take it. Prices right now are sitting around $4.25-4.65/bu FOB farm for February-March movement. New crop prices are still floating around $4/bu FOB with an act of God, you may find a touch better if you are in the south west corner of Saskatchewan. We also have a great supply of barley seed. Whether you are looking for malt or feed varieties, we have options, so talk with your merchant for pricing and delivery.

The chickpea world still seems to be bubbling under a little as markets have held up in recent weeks. Current bids, with some sizing restrictions, are around 27 to 28 cents per pound on large kabuli types for nice #2 quality. If you have product that sizes up really well (lots of 9mm and 10mm), some price premiums can be found, but on the flip side discounts are seen on product that is much smaller, though we can still find a home for that product. New crop prices are a little tougher to peg down as buyer indications are pretty rare, but the last trading numbers were around 27 cents picked up with an act of God. Desi chickpeas we have a few buyers still looking for product so if you have samples get them sent into our office.

The canaryseed market is quiet this week, but export numbers show reason for a bit of optimism as we move closer to the next major export window in April/May. Year to date exports from Canada are at 53400 MT which is the strongest pace we have seen in the canaryseed market since 2014/2015. While it can be a tough market to gauge as far as ending stocks go, if we keep our current pace we can expect ending stocks to tighten and firm prices up a little bit. Current bids are showing $0.22/lb picked up in the yard while new crop bids hold flat at $0.20/lb for a Sept/Dec movement, including an Act of God.

Lentils markets remain on pace since the holiday season. Crop production didn’t produce much interest from buyers as most found farmers still have ample supply in the bin. Buyers did express some interest in new crop large green and reds though, which is encouraging. Large greens have traded at 24¢ for No. 1 and 22¢ for No. 2, while red lentils traded for 18¢ for No.2 both contracts were for new crop product, September to December movement and included an Act of God.  Most local traders told us India is still not buying a lot of lentils, rather, other countries are specking on India becoming a buyer at some point therefor, hoping for a price increase. India trade is telling Canadian markets that there is ample supply and that price will only slightly increase over time.

Mustard prices have remained in the same range again…as export demand continues to be weak, which may not improve in the near future. In talking with buyers in the trade, short term certainly appears to be flat for awhile. New crop bids on 2019 mustard have started trading. Mustard remains a very strong option held in comparison to other crops. All new crop is for the full crop year, has an act of god and are FOB. Shorter movement is available. Yellow is at 35 cents, brown continues at 30 and oriental is at 28 for Forge or Vulcan varieties while Cutlass is at 26 cents.  Spot pricing remains exactly the same as yellow mustard trades today at 35c/lb depending on movement and brown at 29-30c/lb.  Oriental Mustard remains at 25-26c/lb. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard along with financing options.

Chatter from the Crop Production Show in Saskatoon indicates cereal acres will be up next year. That being said, this does not include durum. Expect a decrease in durum acres, but with carry still significant from 2017 & 2018 there should not be any leaps from those markets with staying power. Keep an eye on bid “specials” as an opportunity to market some of your stored production or putting targets in. Milling quality durum values range from $6.50-$7.00/bu for today through to 2020 location dependant and a bit of carry into JFM of 2020. Feed wheat markets remain at $5.50-$5.75/bu for heavy and dry and Spring Wheat bids in the low $7.00/bu  values FOB farm for #1, 13.5 pro quality. There is some carry in the deferred months if later movement is preferred.

Soybeans futures have slowly been trending upwards since mid-September, despite domestic fundamental headwinds. Little has changed in recent weeks, Brazil crop still forecasted to be smaller than previous which is mildly bullish. However South American harvest has begun, and their exports will suppress global soybean markets. China/U.S. trade tensions remain, but with the U.S. government shutdown any grain trade that may occur is going unreported. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.50/bu fob farm. Faba bean market is still searching for export quality which is tougher and tougher to find. Local bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $11/bu fob farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 fob farm. Dry bean market continues to hold firm based on Europe’s tariffs on US origin beans. New crop contracts now available.

We have not seen too much change in the canola market over the last while.  Nearby March futures are trading around 486/MT which pencils back to around $10.50-10.75/bu delivered plant depending on location and end user’s basis level.  Some areas are still posting basis levels that would equate back to $11.00/bu delivered plant for summer delivery for growers able to wait that long.  New crop values are still hovering around $10.50-10.75/bu delivered plant depending on location for Sept/Dec movement.  Later deliver is where the premiums will be found.  These values seem to keep hanging around with no major changes occurring over the past while.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – January 16, 2019

We are at the Saskatoon Crop Production show this week.  Market comments will return next week.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 9, 2019

Aside from maple peas, the pea market has not seen much change over the past week. Market prices on yellows are seeing $7/bu FOB in areas but, is freight sensitive. There is an opportunity for those in the South East of Saskatchewan at $7.25-7.50/bu picked up, however, movement is in the spring-summer timelines. Green peas are trading at $10.50/bu picked up in most areas; and recently, maple peas saw interest at $16/bu picked up. Planning for the 2019-2020 growing season, greens and yellows are a little quiet but maples have bids at $11/bu picked up with an Act of God. Reading through Stat reports, there has not been many change overseas. India still has not come back to the market or reduced any tariffs and China has been our main importer of peas. Rayglen also has a selection of pea seed, call your merchant for details.

Flax prices have not seen many changes over the last month. Movement of flax was a bit quieter in December, compared to November shipments. Inventories at terminal elevators have not increased and farmer deliveries are low, which suggests there is limited export business for the short term. Milling quality flax is $13.25-$13.50/bu picked up for further out movement, while #1 quality is indicating $13.00-$13.30/bu delivered. We have seen some new crop contract go out in the $12.00-$12.50/bu Fob range, with an Act of God. Yellow flax movement remains quiet with prices around $14.00/bu delivered to plant. Prices in China have relaxed somewhat but, buying has been steady. For the long term, once exports pick up, we should see Canadian prices also firm up due to limited production from 2018.

This week has brought strength in the feed barley market as prices have bumped up slightly. If the cold weather continues through the next couple of months, hopefully these prices can hold on or possibly rise a touch more. Bids for movement in the short-term are in the $4.50-$4.75/bu range picked up on your farm. Most of this appears to be heading west into feedlot alley so the best bids are in Alberta or western Saskatchewan. We do have buyers signing up new crop barley with options for an Act of God clause as well, so be sure to call your merchant or the office for a price picked up in your yard. Malt barley prices remain flat but may have some options for new crop. Rayglen also has some seed options available, so call your merchant today for more details.

Wheat markets have not seen much change over the last few weeks.  Feed wheat markets continue to hover around $5.55-5.70/bu picked up on farm depending on location and movement timeline for heavy and dry feed quality.  Milling hard red spring wheat is still hovering around $7.20-7.30/bu delivered plant for #1, 13.5 protein quality with the latter being more deferred delivery months.  Durum values have fluctuated mainly due to specials coming and going with buyers as they need product.  We have seen values as good as $7.25/bu delivered into spring months, but tonnage is limited and can fill quickly.  Once the special is filled values are then being quoted in the $6.50-6.70/bu range for #1 milling durum. New crop durum bids have popped up here and there with some business being done in the $7.00-7.40/bu range FOB for #1 US durum spec, again depending on location and delivery.  Growers contemplating carrying over some durum into next year may want to look at this as a decent hedging opportunity for new crop to get some product sold.

Red lentils have taken a bit of a jump in the southwest part of Saskatchewan, as some buyers were paying as high 20c/lb delivered into plant.  All other areas are still sitting at 18.5 picked up or 19c/lb delivered.  Canadian lentil shipping is on pace compared to last year’s numbers, but due to larger supply, prices will continue to struggle to make significant gains. The past 4 four months of lentil trade has remained steady but due to more supply the industry continues to grind through these markets.  The numbers for Aug-Nov shipping was a total of 588,261 MT, during the same time frame last year, the numbers were similar. The good news on this is that the trade has found more places to trade lentils to other than India.  Prices will likely bounce up and down for the short term until India’s election is over and they get a better idea on knowing the size of their Rabi Crop.  We have seen some new crop contracts trade in the 18c/lb range as well. Call us with your offers.

Oats this week seems to have a bit more demand than the last few weeks. We have seen a rush in the fall for good quality oats, and now we are seeing a rush for feed oats. With corn prices moving up and barley following, the next substitute for ranchers/feedlots is oats. Buyers right now are paying anywhere from $2.75-3.00/bu fob farm. The closer you get to Manitoba the better the price gets. Movement is also good with buyers looking to move product quickly. Milling oats are still holding in there at $4/bu delivered into Manitoba for May-July movement. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so if you have a number in mind talk with your merchant about posting one.

We have not seen much for big action on the canola market as of late. There have been some small blips up and down attributed to soybean market spillover and movements on the Loonie but vastly things are pretty unchanged. Some recent approvals in China regarding GMO canola may help to bolster the market as sales to China open up further down the road, giving growers more options. Currently we have bids rolling around $10.25 to $10.50/bu range depending on location. Numbers for the fall of 2019 are similar to slightly less. Poor moisture conditions in South America may help the soybean price which could give strength somewhat to canola prices in the foreseeable future. Watch for small opportunities on rallies with an unstable Loonie and tightening basis levels as buyers look to cover sales.

Chickpeas had little activity this week as news continues to stream from India of a dry Rabi crop. Typically, the week before the annual Crop Production Show markets seem quiet in the hopes that this event could create some clarity in the markets. It is clear that chickpea acres will be down next year but, it is not clear if this will make anything more than a subtle difference in their worth when considering the amount of carry that will be brought over. There has been a slight bump in values this week with limited volume so call if any interest.  Orion/Leaders trading between 28-29c/lb FOB farm #2 quality and Frontiers at a 2c/lb discount. High green and damaged chickpeas are also in demand being valued at 18-20c/lb FOB farm depending on location. Desis are still on the table if you are a seller. Call your broker for more information.

Canary seed markets have bounced back and forth the last couple months between 20c/lb and 23c/lb. Most of Canadian production is sold to Mexico and European markets and their weak currency has not supported an uptick prices. Sentiment is seller will hold onto their production till a stronger market reappears and the buyer remains steadfast on their bids knowing the volume is out there. Current pricing is trading at 22c/lb picked up and new crop is starting at 20c/lb FOB with an Act of God.

Mustard continues flat this week……and we are starting to wonder if this won’t be the normal for quite awhile. Export demand continues to be weak, which may not improve in the near future.  Black Sea exports continue to be strong, holding our exports in check. New crop bids on 2019 mustard have started trading. With predicted acres being down this year, this is becoming a very strong option. Check with us about pricing and movement windows. Spot pricing remains exactly the same as yellow mustard trades today at 34-35c/lb depending on movement and brown at 29-30c/lb.  Oriental Mustard remains at 25-26c/lb. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard along with financing options.

Soybean market has slowly staged a comeback since it’s mid-September lows, that said, it’s set to test a chart resistance point. Soybean market has recently been fueled by expectations of reduced production from Brazil and progress in China trade talks. Overall fundamentals remain bearish and increased export numbers are what will be needed to change this view. No new news to drive the market given that the USDA didn’t release its Jan 11th WASDE report due to the shutdown of the USDA data services by the U.S. Government. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.85/bu fob farm. Faba bean market is still searching for export quality which is tougher and tougher to find. Local bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $11/bu fob farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 fob farm. Dry bean market continues to hold firm based on Europe’s tariffs on US origin beans. Buyers looking for uncontracted beans now that we’re into the New Year, call Rayglen for details and information on seed.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 3, 2019

The oat market has not fluctuated in price, with both feed and milling markets remaining firm. Feed buyers have entered the market looking for oats and in some cases are paying upwards of $2.75/bu FOB the farm on a good quality feed. That being said, for producers that are out of the freight wheelhouse for milling buyers, these markets may provide some decent selling opportunities. Good quality milling oats have been trading around $3.00/bu FOB the yard and higher where freight makes sense. We also have a market on Organic oats, which are being indicated at $6.25/bu delivered for Feb/March time frame. For the most up to date pricing in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Acres are starting to be forecasted for this year’s growing season and peas are expected to see a rise compared to last year; with greens and maples seeing the largest increase. At the moment, new cop bids on greens and yellows haven’t really been bid out, but later in the month we might see that change. Maple peas have new crop contracts grabbing interest at the $10.50-$11/bu picked up range. Spot pricing has not seen much change after the holidays. Green peas are trading at $10.50/bu picked up, yellows are seeing $7-7.50/bu in certain areas and maple peas are at $15/bu. The potential for India coming back in the market has been slightly subdued as they extended their import restrictions into March.

Forecasting to next growing season, canary seed acres are expected to be up. This is all due to pricing looking slightly more competitive than last year. However, even with this increase, acres will be lower than the five-year average, as per stat reports. Current pricing is trading at 22.5 cents/bu picked up and new crop is starting at 20 cents with an Act of God. Export demand is fairly quiet during this time of the year, so we aren’t expecting much upside in the near future. Also, Argentina’s harvest is progressing, and their production will be up substantially from last year’s harvest. Canada will see some increased competition going into the Brazilian market.

Soybean market is mixed and looking for direction ever since the Dec 21st U.S. government shutdown of the data-gathering functions of the USDA. It remains unclear whether or not the USDA will be able to publish its key Jan 11th report on grain production and stocks. There is a minor degree of bullishness based on a dry December in Brazil along with U.S. port basis holding firm, indicating some export interest. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.40-$10.50/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market is still searching for export quality, which is tougher and tougher to find. Local bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $11/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 FOB farm. Dry bean market continues to hold firm based on Europe’s tariffs on US origin beans. Buyers are looking for uncontracted beans now that we’re into the New Year.

The canola market posted gains yesterday to start the week, but futures this morning are slightly down at time of writing. Values have held firm the past few weeks, hovering around $10.60/bu delivered plant for nearby movement and $11.05/bu delivered into the summer months. New crop values are currently hovering around $10.65-$10.70/bu delivered plant in some locations. Crude oil seeing some strength so far this week has helped keep canola firm. Other reports state that Brazil is seeing some dryness regarding their soybean crop, providing support. Even with this positive news that could support upside in canola, we have to watch our Canadian dollar improving as well as the uncertainty over the US/China trade situation. Canola values could go either way depending on the outcome. Growers that are able to hold product into the summer may want to look at getting some booked as prices are attractive for that delivery window.

Chickpea markets are steady as she goes after the tail end of 2018. The Indian Rabi crop reports ongoing dry conditions along with reduced acres, but sentiment is to wait and watch as we creep closer to their harvest in April. Keep in mind, India imports the Canadian chickpea mainly to clean/size and export, so their need is not solely based on consumption. This could affect how they value the Canadian supply when and if the need arrives. Orion/Leaders trading between $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm #2 quality and Frontiers at a $0.02/lb discount. High green and damaged chickpeas are also in demand being valued at $0.18-0.20/lb FOB farm depending on location. If you have any Desi chickpeas we have interested buyers as well, call us to discuss new crop options and offers.

The wheat markets entered the New Year with little to no change as prices have remained flat. Feed wheat is trading between $5.25-$5.50/bu picked up in your yard depending on location, with the possibility of slightly more if on the west side of Saskatchewan or into Alberta. HRS milling wheat bids continue to hover around $7.25/bu delivered to plant with the possibility of a slight protein premium if above 15%. The #1 CWAD durum market remains quiet with bids between $6.00-$6.25/bu with on farm pickup for anything nearby. We do have increased durum interest in deep southeast Saskatchewan for a delayed movement with options for the end of 2019 and the start of 2020. Please give us a call for more details if interested.

The flax market has continued its sideways pattern in recent weeks. Milling markets have not pushed to the normal premium of around $1/bu when compared to conventional #1 quality prices. This would indicate that the Chinese market is still the biggest player when it comes to end users of flax. Current brown flax bids are in the $13/bu FOB farm range for #1 quality flax while the milling market shows a 25 cent or slightly better premium depending on location of course. Yellow flax bids have been hit or miss around $14/bu range, but not on steady ground as buyers are not aggressively pursuing product. We have yet to see any firm numbers from buyers on fall 2019 pricing but would expect to see some of those bids firming up soon.

Feed barley markets have not made any drastic moves since before or over the Christmas holidays, but we are seeing a slight bump. This is due to corn markets showing strength and feed lots increasing rations of barley. As we move into the middle of winter, prices often depend on the how cold the weather gets. Keep in mind that January & February will be key delivery months. As we know, this is because temperatures warm mid to end of March, feed lots don’t feed as heavy and road bans start to play a factor on bids. Currently, prices are sitting around $4.25-$4.50/bu FOB farm for Jan-Feb movement. New crop prices are floating around with an Act of God so talk to your merchant on that if you are interested, as it relies heavily on freight.

The lentil market has gone quiet since just before the Christmas break. There is no real news being reported on why the markets have been so quiet, but we sure aren’t seeing buyers come to the table as aggressively as we were a month ago. By next week more information will likely be reported as everyone will be back to normal trading. Price is likely to remain stable as we are a week and a bit away from the crop production show. Crop production week is always an interesting time for marketing and if you have a target price in mind let your merchant know now so you don’t miss getting the price you want. Bids this week have reds sitting between 18-18.5c/lb del, large green #2 21-22c/lb del, and small greens 19c for #1 and 17c for #2.

Not a lot of change on the mustard front through the holiday season. Buyers have stayed similar on pricing and the new crop bids on 2019 mustard have started trading. Check with us about pricing and movement windows. Spot pricing remains exactly the same as nothing overseas changed according to buyers. Old crop yellow mustard trades today at $0.34-$0.35/lb depending on movement and brown at $0.29-$0.30/lb.  Oriental Mustard remains at $0.25-$0.26/lb. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Happy New Year!

There will be no market comments this week, they will return Jan 2nd. We hope you have a safe and happy New Year!


Rayglen Market Comments – December 19, 2018

This week has had some new crop bids roll out on 2019 mustard. A few acres are now under contract and we suspect this will pick up into the New Year. Check with us about pricing and movement windows. As far as spot pricing goes, we also expect values will remain range bound through the Christmas and New Year at this point. Old crop yellow mustard trades today at $0.34-0.35/lb depending on movement and brown at $0.29-0.30/lb.  Oriental Mustard remains at $0.25-0.26/lb. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard.

Pea markets and bids have not seen much change over the past week. Yellow peas are trading at $7.00/bu picked up and green peas are seeing opportunities at $10.50/bu picked up on firm offer. With new crop conversations starting, maple peas have been getting the most interest. Values have been at $11-11.50/bu delivered with an Act of God and there is a supply of seed for new growers that are looking to get into maples. Market reports are starting to show acreage projections for the 2018/2019 year and peas are expected to see a 10% increase in acres from last year. Rayglen also has a supply of green and yellow pea seed, talk with your merchant if you are looking.

Feed barley is holding strong and is expected to as corn prices continue to move up. As we know when corn values increase, barley becomes a reliable substitute, so feedlots will be looking for more barley in the coming weeks. Now is a great time to post an offer as markets remain bullish. Prices this week are sitting around $4.25-4.65/bu FOB farm. We also have demand for new crop barley with an act of God, so talk with your merchant if you are interested in contracting some. If you are looking for barley seed, give us a call as we have a good supply of feed or malting verities available, with delivery options and financing available.

The soybean market is still awaiting definitive news on the direction of U.S./China trade negotiations. The U.S. and China are planning to hold meetings in January to negotiate a broader truce in their trade wars but are unlikely to have any face-to-face contact before then. China has bought U.S. soybeans for a second week since the temporary truce was reached at the conclusion of the G20 meeting in Argentina. Brazilian soybean crop continues to look promising with supplies available in February. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.80/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market is coming to grips with this year’s Western Canadian quality profile, which appears to have challenges with downgrading from #2 due to perforated damage. Local bids remain strong for an exportable #2 at $11/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50/bu FOB farm. Dry beans continue to attract interest from buyers. Most production is under contract and thus committed, however we hope to release new crop contracts soon.

Flax prices have no change this week, with $13.00/bu delivered to plant on a #1 quality the benchmark and milling prices up to $13.50/bu, with movement out to May. Price direction will be influenced by the supply in the Black Sea region according to analysts. Chinese inventories were also shrinking as per the latest reports but picked up again near the end of November. Demand from the US has also been quiet as of recent, but likely to gain some traction in the new year. Prices on flax will continue to hold as supplies get tight. There may be a small opportunity for new crop prices, phone your Rayglen merchant to discuss. We also have seed options available for those looking to get into flax or update their seed.  Yellow flax prices vary, but indications hover between $13.00-$14.00/bu picked up, depending on area.

Little activity in the wheat markets again this week, but that’s pretty typical given the time of year. Feed values range from $5.25 – $5.50/bu FOB farm with some carry in the market if you can hold out for early 2019. Milling wheat bids for spring delivery hover around $7.25/bu delivered to elevator for hard red spring wheat. Durum remains around $6.00-$6.25/bu off the farm for early 2019 with some carry into the summer for #1 with 13.5% protein. We have ongoing interest specific to the SE corner of Saskatchewan for durum into the fall of 2019 and early 2020 winter. Please call for more details.

The canary seed market is virtually unchanged from last week. Prices are sitting around 23c/lb FOB the farm with no signs of movement in either direction; of course, freight rates will play a role in FOB farm bids. Reports suggest acres this coming season will rebound from last year to an estimated 275,000. This would be roughly 30% higher than last year’s lowest estimate. Canary seed volumes do not fluctuate from year to year and there should be enough supply to meet demand for the up and coming crop year. This indicates that pricing shouldn’t fluctuate from current levels, but that’s yet to be seen. If you are looking for most up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Canola prices have not seen much change over the past week with values still hovering around $10.50-11.05/bu delivered plant depending on location and delivery month. Prices can still be very area specific with some companies offering specials depending on their current needs. New crop canola values are still trading around $10.50-10.70/bu delivered plant as well with some areas seeing lower values depending on the basis level being offered for new crop months. Values likely won’t see much change with the holiday season getting closer, but with politics still being involved due to the US/China/Canada issues you just never know. Growers should keep an eye on the market and the issues surrounding the canola market to take advantage of any opportunities that may arise.

Nothing new in the oats market as we head into the holiday season on a sideways trend. Milling oats continue to trade in the $2.75-$3.00/bu range picked up in your yard. As per usual, the closer to the southeast corner of Saskatchewan you’re located, the better your price will likely be. On the feed side of the market, bids are between $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up on the farm. This is based on heavy and dry specs, but we do have markets for out of spec product as well, so be sure to let us know what you have, and we will find you the best price possible.

Lentils markets have cooled off since the run up earlier in the month. This week precipitation reports out of India seem to carry a bearish tone, although its suggest that the rains were isolated and not overly heavy, it is prompting optimism for the Indian crop. Christmas holidays is likely another reason for the market slow down. We had a few new crop red lentils and new crop large greens trade the end of last week as growers start to hedge their bets. The reds were trading at 18c/lb FOB and the large greens were trading at 20c/lb picked up for a No. 2, both with an act of God.  Markets will likely remain quiet until after the holidays as a lot of buyers will only be operating minimal hours next week.

The chickpea market is still holding up pretty well this past week, as the handful of buyers that have been in the market continue looking for product in the high twenties. Sizing is a bigger issue than normal this year, as growing conditions were not conducive to large garbanzos and there have been some sizing issues. Normally the biggest problem this market faces is high green count and damage which forces lots of tonnage into the pet food market, but those issues were not at the forefront this marketing season. If you are looking to lock in fall production on large Kabulis, we do have some new crop pricing that includes an act of God against quality issues and picked up in the yard prices. We have had a few trades roll through the office on desi type chickpeas if you have any of those on hand you want to rid yourself of.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – December 12, 2018

The canola market hasn’t seen too much change over the past week. The recent USDA report was viewed as slightly bearish for soybeans but didn’t seem to have any major impact of the canola market thus far. Attention seems to still be focused on the US/China trade situation and how it all unfolds. That being said, values are still hovering around $10.60-11.00/bu delivered plant, with the latter being for June movement. Bids throughout the province can vary a lot at this time due to basis level differences and some companies offering specials to fill trains and cover tonnage. Growers should look at slowly selling some product into these specials and keep an eye on this market as time progresses. New crop bids have been hovering around $10.50-10.70/bu delivered plant in some locations. Growers comfortable with the risk of forward selling should look at this as a decent starting point to get canola of the books for this coming growing season. Acres will likely be up on canola, but the big question is: how much?  How much more can the canola rotation be pushed than it already has been over the last few years. There are a lot of variables that could change this market and taking some profit off the table is never a bad decision.

As most are talking about, India’s rainfall has been lacking. This has been a lifeline to the pea market. India has not yet come back into the market to purchase, but there is some hope that, just maybe, they will need to open their borders again. China is still importing a good amount of peas, which is holding pea pricing up and keeping growers bullish. Right now, we have green peas trading at $10/bu picked up and yellow peas at $7/bu picked up. Maple peas have been getting some interest these last couple weeks as well and if you have supply in your bin, there has been targets hitting at $15/bu picked up. We also had buyers looking at new crop values at $11.50/bu delivered with an Act of God. We have a supply of limerick green peas and maple pea seed that has been getting quite a bit of interest. Contact your merchant if you are looking to update your seed or information on growing maple peas.

The canary seed market remains flat this past week. Stats Canada has stated that the 2018 crop year produced 117,800 MT from 212,100 acres. Provincial yield estimates are more around the 100,000 MT mark, which is down approx. 30 % from last year’s total production at 144,800 MT. Analysts have said that if supply on canary seed is as low as it appears, we could be almost sold out by the end of the marketing year. That being said, you could definitely see the price rise in the next few months if buyers believe supplies are getting tight. Canary seed has been trading around 22.5-23c/lb FOB the farm pending location. If you are looking for the most current and up to date pricing in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Flax remains steady and has been trading around $13.00/bu FOB for a #1 Canada grade, in cases where freight makes sense. Bids on milling quality, have been quoted around $13.25/bu FOB farm with the possibility of $13.50/bu, again in the right location. China has been virtually absent on the flax buying side of things for the month of October, they only imported 14,000 tonnes. Total purchases in the first quarter of this year for China were 84,000 tonnes. Last year at this time, they bought 108,000 MT. All in all, buying is off pace from last year, but is still on pace for the 5-year average. The expected trend on this year’s flax market is that pricing is going to remain fairly stagnant to marginally higher.

Barley is making a move in the right direction this week. With corn values going up, feedlots are reverting back to barley. Barley is expected to keep moving upwards throughout the winter as corn continues to jump. How cold our winter will be could also play a huge factor in how much barley goes up. With that being said, prices are sitting around $4.40-4.70/bu FOB farm for Jan-Feb movement. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you are looking for so talk with your merchant on posting one. Also, we have good supply of certified barley seed, whether you are looking for malt variety or feed variety, we have both!

Lentil markets have cooled down a little since last week’s rally. Reds have slipped a half cent and large green lentils between a half cent to a full cent depending on area and buyer. The Indian crops are still lacking moisture, and this has led to some companies taking a bought position. This buying was due to moisture concerns and seeding progress slightly off pace from last year, but still ahead of the 5-year average. We are guessing markets may become quiet now until after Christmas as they usually do at this time of year. In the next couple weeks seeding should be wrapped up in India, early numbers will be in from the Australian harvest and India should also have some info on how well the early crops germinated. The release of this information could lead to markets responding during the first week of January. In a rising market, setting price a target is likely the best way not to miss out on unadvertised opportunities. As we know, prices can rise and fall quickly in a speculative market.

Feed wheat prices are similar to recent weeks, with most bids floating around the $5.25-$5.50/bu at the yard with price, dependent on where exactly you are located. The price also varies based on movement window, with the stronger bids pushed out on into the new year as there is basically only a week of movement left before the Christmas back log hits. Milling wheat bids have pushed up a bit on price into the spring and summer and are north of $7.25/bu delivered to elevator for hard red spring wheat. We have some markets for smaller crop wheat types as well if you are looking for some prices. Durum bids are pretty tough to come by, but most indications are low to mid $6’s with movement pushed into the summer for #1 with 13.5% protein. For those located in the south east corner of Saskatchewan we do have a buyer interested in pricing durum into the fall of 2019 and early 2020 winter if you want to put some trades on the roster for next the production season.

Soybean futures markets are trading either near or slightly above resistance levels, buoyed by President Trumps sketchy claims that China is back buying US-origin soybeans. Market bulls are facing a few head winds from Tuesday’s USDA report of global soybean 18/19 ending stocks increasing again to 115 MMT; the highest level in quite some time. Coupled with that, new crop Brazilian soybeans will hit the market in February, of which China already has purchase commitments. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.50/bu FOB farm. Faba bean market is coming to grips with this year’s Western Canadian quality profile, which appears to have challenges with downgrading from #2 due to perforated damage. Local bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $11/bu FOB farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 FOB farm. Dry beans continue to attract interest from buyers. Most old crop production is under contract and thus committed, however we hope to release new crop contracts soon.

Oats continue to be flat this week as things have settled down after they had a nice run up on pricing a couple of months ago. Milling oat bids are floating between $2.75-$3.00/bu picked up in the yard depending on your location. Typically, the prices get stronger the further south east towards Manitoba you go as that is where the majority of the oats are heading. Feed oats are trading between $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up in your yard with pricing being better the further south you are located. As always, if you have a target price in mind give your merchant a call to put out a firm offer for our buyers to take a look at.

Don’t cross a chickpea farmer, they can be hummus-cidal. Seems the chickpea market has decided it likes the spotlight and has kept its firm tone over the last week. The statistics remain the same week after week stating Canadian supply in 2018 totaled 343,300MTS vs 192,600MTS in 2017, in case you needed a reminder. Some keys points to keep in mind, the largest buyer of Canadian chickpeas is Turkey and they are getting most of their supply from Russia. If that doesn’t change it could lead to larger carry over for Canada in 2019 which doesn’t support prices. Australia 2018 acres collapsed as a response to reduced demand from India and adverse weather conditions, which has firmed their values. This could lead to increased Australian acres in 2019. India rabi seeding progress indicated desi chickpea acres down 13% compared to last year which also supports Australia’s interest in increased acres. The Canadian grower will continue to hold onto their stocks at todays levels and acres should be reduced for next year, but all other factors do not support a repeat of the early 2017 values. Current #2 Kabuli bids range from $0.27-0.28/lb for large sizes and $0.24-0.25/lb on smaller. New crop at $0.275/lb for large sizes and at $0.21-0.22/lb for frontiers and feed values at $0.18/lb all FOB farm with an AOG.

Mustard export demand remains quieter than usual for this time of year, putting a lid on prices, so far anyways, going into 2019. We suspect a bit of a stand off near term, leaving prices flat as we enter the new year. Hopefully things perk up for growers as time edges on. That being said, we have new crop pricing out, call the office for details. Old crop yellow mustard trades today at $0.34-0.35/lb depending on movement and brown at $0.29-0.30/lb.  Oriental Mustard remains at $0.25-0.26/lb. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us! We have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – December 5, 2018

Producers have delivered around 30% of their 2018 pea crop according to reports. This number is ahead of last year’s 29%, but still behind the 5-year average of 34% at the same time. Chinese exports have totaled around 275,000 tonnes for the month of October. Total for the year so far is around 1.66 million tonnes. If the China/USA trade deal comes together on soybeans, you could see the price of yellow peas decrease, but we will have to wait to find out. Currently, yellow peas are trading at $6.75-7.00/bu FOB farm, with an indicated Dec/Jan delivery timeline. Green pea markets continue to show strength this week, and bids have shot up to $10.00 FOB farm. Maple pea markets also remain perked up at $15/bu picked up with delivery pushed to a Feb-March time frame. We have a very good supply of common and certified pea seed as well. Call your merchant for details.

 

Flax bids are still holding strong with #1 quality trading at $13.30/bu delivered to plant and milling quality trading at $13.25/bu picked up. We are seeing support being held due to our weaker Canadian dollar. However, the demand is also being supported by the smaller flax inventories in China. Flax is showing some potential with this Chinese demand, but the Black Sea region is keeping prices at bay for the moment. According to Stat reports, Russia and Kazakhstan had harvest delays and their export volumes are now getting back on track. Looking to yellow flax, we have bids at $13-14/bu picked up with the bids getting stronger as you head south east.

 

Soybeans have been on a bit of a rollercoaster ride since the U.S. – China trade talks wrapped up on Sunday. Moral of the story, no new tariffs for ninety days. At this point nothing has been completely resolved, therefore markets will remain rocky until we see how each country comes to a firm agreement. If or when China places their first purchase of U.S. soybeans, markets should react in a positive way. If talks continue to be positive as we near the ninety-day deadline, markets should remain stable, but at this point they’ve been anything but smooth. Where the danger lies is if China does not come to market immediately and do not purchase as large volumes as the market has or is anticipating. The U.S. government may view this as China not bargaining in good faith, which will also have a negative impact on the markets. Anyone who thinks this is resolved and things will go smoothly has to remember that these talks have been ongoing for 2 years. Let’s hope that the two sides get this sorted out before the ninety-day deadline. Soybean bids still hover around the mid $10’s/bu picked up in the yard today. Faba bids have seen no change this past week; feed at $6.50-7/bu, #2 quality at $10-12/bu pending specs.

 

The lentil market has managed a small rally lately based on reports that India is experiencing below average seasonal moisture. The market was led by #2 large green lentils rising to 22 cents/lb picked up. #2 small red and #1 small green lentils shortly followed suit with picked up bids at 18 cents/lb and 19 cents/lb respectively. Not to be left out, #2 medium green lentils have now joined at 15 cents/lb picked up for some of our US clients and high teens to maybe 20 cents for Canadian product. The market seems to be buying small speculative weather positions. Buyers are often filling these by purchasing producers firm target prices through our grower offer system. With regard to India, last we heard pulse planting is north of 70% complete and running only slightly off the 5-year normal planting pace. The larger concern is the impact of the reduced monsoon rains from October and now lower subsoil moisture. Indian tariff-based protectionist import policy remains the same, so whatever the weather outcome is in India it is likely to be overridden by government policy.

 

Mustard, put it on your hot dog. Also, a seed crop in Canada that has had very little excitement over the last several weeks. Canadian export numbers remain the same compared to this time last year, but domestic use is down to 800MTS vs 2,900MTS in 2017. With Statcan final production numbers unchanged from initial reports, it would be a factor in understanding the stale market. New crop values have started to be the buzz, but the bids have people talking more about hot dogs than seeding mustard. Not sure if the sentiment is “higher prices or no acres”, but no one is willing to pull the trigger yet.  Yellow Mustard old crop $0.34-0.35/lb with new crop at $0.30/lb, Brown Mustard old crop $0.29-0.30/lb with new crop at $0.26/lb and Oriental Mustard old crop $0.25-0.26/lb with new crop at $0.25/lb. All on the farm and all freight dependant. For your mustard planning needs, call us! We have certified seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated, treated, and included delivery to your yard.

 

Feed barley markets have seen little change with bids holding firm. Good feed barley has traded this past week at $4.55/bu picked up on farm for Jan/Feb movement, depending on location. This market hasn’t seen much change in some time and will likely continue its sideways pattern in the near future. Movement is the variable factor that continues to get pushed further out. There has been some new crop feed barley getting booked with bids seeing $4.00/bu or better depending on location and delivery; act of God has been offered in some cases as well. Malt contracts have been slower to come out so far this year, but we imagine this will change into the new year with buyers looking to secure some acres for the upcoming year.

 

Chickpea prices holding strong this week with 27.5-28 cents/lb picked up in the yard trading. There are also new crop contracts out at 27.5 cents/lb FOB farm, with an act of God. Call our office for details. There seems to be some mixed signals in the market on how large the Canadian chickpea crop was. However, Canadian production is only part of the overall picture. The US crop is estimated at 588,000 tones up from 313,000 tonnes. The US is one of Canadas largest buyers, so this has an affect on Canadian pricing. The lower chickpea prices compared to past years is starting to find some recovery, but that won’t happen quickly. Acres are likely to get cut back in some main growing regions due to the amount of supply available. There is also some interest in desi chickpeas, with an indicated price at 25 cents/lb picked up. For those with off grade chickpeas or higher moisture, we have options, call the office!

 

The feed wheat market has remained relatively flat this week as bids range from $5.25-$5.50/bu picked up in your yard depending on location. Bids tend to get stronger the further west you go. That being said, we have been seeing opportunities in the far southeast corner of Saskatchewan as high as $5.70/bu picked up for dry and heavy feed wheat. Pricing does get a bit better the longer you are willing to hold on, but opportunities for quicker movement do exist if needed. On the milling side of the market, bids stayed flat at slightly over $7 delivered. Small premiums do exist for protein over 14% so let us know what you have, and we will find our top bid for you. We still have some attractive deferred durum pricing deep in the south east corner for movement in late 2019/early 2020 if you’re able to store it in the bins for a while as well.

 

Oats remains the same as last week, with little to no change. With yields this year fairly average, you probably will not see big jumps in pricing. For milling quality oats, bids sit between $2.75-3/bu FOB farm depending on freight. If you are in the south east corner, close to Manitoba, you will see bids get stronger as that is the direction most is headed. Feed oat bids are around $2.25-2.50/bu FOB farm also depending on freight. Make sure you let your merchant know if your oats were sprayed with Glyphosate, as some buyers do not want that. With the market being flat, offers are a great way to catch the price you want if there is a little movement, so talk with your merchant on posting one.

 

The canola market has been marginally stronger this week. Despite some big jumps in the soybean trade due to an informal moratorium coming from China and US on trade hostilities, canola seems rather unaffected. Between movements in Soy, Soy Oil and the Loonie, it’s tough to peg what the Canola market will do next. Current bids around the province are up to $10.25/bu in the yard in some areas, but not widespread as the basis levels are not as inviting in other locations. If you have a target price in mind touch base with your merchant and we can see about posting a firm offer up to see if any buyers can sharpen their pencils a little on basis levels. We will see if Thursday’s release on StatsCan production numbers shakes up the trade at all or if the analysts have been correct in their latest tonnage predictions.

 

The canary seed market has been solid this week. Some trades have taken place at 23 cents/lb FOB in advantageous freight areas, while other bids hover at 22.5 cents. Recent Sask Ag yield data was lowered by about 100 lbs/acre and we expect the on-farm supply to be a bit tighter this year. This could allow us to see a slight jump in the market, but how big that jump may be remains to be seen. Call your merchant to put an offer in if you’re looking for a little more for further out movement.


« Previous PageNext Page »